Shock Defeat in Store for Arsenal at Bournemouth | Heung-Min Son Set to Unleash Fury against Liverpool

Arsenal could be in for a massive shock at Bournemouth, writes tipster Jones Knows, who takes aim at the weekend's Premier League card.

Aston Villa vs Brighton, Saturday 12.30pm

The recent success of Aston Villa, which contradicts my previous belief that they were highly overrated and destined for a string of poor performances, has made me reconsider my theory. However, their lackluster performance against Everton in their recent home game suggests that there might still be some truth to my assumptions about Unai Emery's inability to sustain early success in his new role.

It is quite surprising to see Aston Villa concede 1.83 expected goals to a relatively mediocre Everton attack, especially considering that they had several clear-cut opportunities to score. It is worth noting that Villa did not field a significantly weakened team in this match.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

However, offering up chances of that nature to Brighton is simply not advisable. This team, under the guidance of Roberto De Zerbi, has consistently averaged over two goals per game in 38 Premier League matches. Their ability to sustain leads and their impressive track record of winning the last eight games after scoring first demonstrate their serious ruthlessness. I always have a strong inclination to support Brighton when they are priced as an outsider in the win-draw-loss market, just like they are here at 8/5 with Sky Bet. Therefore, it is highly likely that an away win will occur in this match.

Bournemouth vs Arsenal, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

In Arsenal's previous 12 away games against teams that finished in the bottom half, the average total goals per game has been just 1.9. However, if we exclude the 2-2 draw against West Ham, who later won a European trophy, this average drops to 1.7 goals per game. The current market expectation of just over three goals for the upcoming match seems too high, making under 2.5 goals an attractive option at odds of 6/4 with Sky Bet.

Additionally, it is worth considering Andoni Iraola's track record with Rayo Vallecano against Spain's top three teams as another noteworthy argument. His tactical approach effectively restricts the attacks of elite opponents. This was evident in the recent match against Brighton, where their usually dominant offense struggled and left bewildered. This performance caught my attention and led me to believe that the manager is successfully implementing his strategies within the Bournemouth team, despite their current winless record.

In clashes with Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atletico Madrid, his Vallecano team remained competitive, never succumbing to a defeat by more than a single goal in typically low-scoring encounters that averaged just 2.2 goals per 90 minutes.

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Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola can lead his team to a shock victory

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Bournemouth to win & under 2.5 goals (12/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Everton vs Luton, Saturday 3pm

In addition, only one out of the 13 fixtures resulted in more than 3.5 goals - a remarkable achievement considering the limited resources available to Iraola compared to the top teams. If Bournemouth can successfully convey their message, they have the necessary tools to make it an extremely challenging afternoon for the Gunners. Given the odds, placing a bet on Bournemouth to win with under 2.5 goals in the match, currently priced at 12/1, appears to be a worthwhile option.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Bournemouth to win & under 2.5 goals (12/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Everton vs Luton, Saturday 3pm

Everton, on the other hand, are priced at 1/2 by Sky Bet to secure a victory in a Premier League home match.

Consider this for a moment.

The feeling is off-putting and unpleasant, isn't it? This team barely avoided relegation last season, hasn't been able to score a single goal in three home matches this season, and hasn't scored more than once in their previous 16 games at Goodison Park. That accounts for more than a year's worth of football.

However, it should be noted that there have been two impressive away performances at Brentford and Aston Villa recently. Additionally, the overall results at Goodison Park do not reflect the performance levels, as they have fallen short of their expected goals by a significant margin of 12 goals. Sean Dyche's style of football remains challenging for opponents, especially when his central striker is in good form - and now he has two capable strikers in Beto and Dominic Calvert-Lewin.

Regardless of one's opinion on Luton's prospects this season, it is important to acknowledge their solid defensive structure, which has the ability to shut down teams like Everton. Last season, they had the lowest number of away goals conceded (18) and the highest number of away clean sheets (11) throughout the EFL.

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Fulham faced difficulty in breaking down their opponents during their most recent away game, resulting in an expected goals figure of just 0.95. Therefore, considering Everton's slim chances of winning and the likelihood of a low-scoring match, it is recommended to support the under 2.5 goal line and take a chance on Luton avoiding defeat. This selection offers odds of 9/4 on the Bet Builder with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0

In the previous 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace, Casemiro scored his 11th goal for Manchester United since the beginning of last season, and his fourth goal of the current campaign. The inclusion of Sofyan Amrabat in the midfield department will provide Casemiro with even more freedom to contribute to United's attacking strategies, both from open play and, more frequently, during set pieces. With a high possibility of Erik ten Hag's team controlling the number of shots and potentially scoring multiple goals in this match, it seems worthwhile to consider Casemiro's prices across his attacking statistics as favorable targets to pursue.

Manchester United vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

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Casemiro is highly likely to have at least two shots against Crystal Palace, with odds of 11/10. In his previous 30 games for United, he has averaged 1.96 shots per 90 minutes and has managed to hit two or more shots in seven out of his last 12 games. With a comfortable afternoon expected for Ten Hag's men at Old Trafford, the 11/10 odds on him getting two or more shots again are considered to be a good value bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Newcastle vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Burnley faces a grueling fixture list, with this upcoming match being their fifth encounter against a team that finished in the top eight last season. Unfortunately for them, the timing of their game against Newcastle couldn't be worse. Newcastle is currently in good form, having secured victories against Sheffield United and Manchester City. Although Vincent Kompany will eventually bring them up in the table, this particular challenge seems quite daunting for Burnley. The odds reflect this, as Newcastle is favored to win with odds of 2/7 from Sky Bet.

In order to break the deadlock, Burnley may rely on set pieces. Last season, Newcastle excelled in this aspect, leading the league in shots and expected goals created from set plays. Furthermore, both Dan Burn and Sven Botman scored headers during their dominant victory over Sheffield United. Utilizing set pieces will be a crucial part of Newcastle's strategy, as they will pose numerous questions to Burnley in these situations.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Defensive Weaknesses

West Ham vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm

The lack of presence displayed by Kompany's men in defensive set plays has proven costly, resulting in three goals conceded through this method. Additionally, Jonny Evans had one goal disallowed during Manchester United's victory. It is worth noting that Burn and Botman, both priced at 50/1 to score the first goal, appear to be overly expensive options.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

West Ham vs Sheffield United, Saturday 3pm

David Moyes' anticipation of exploiting Sheffield United's vulnerability in wide areas is reason for great delight. This can be accomplished through the adeptness of James Ward-Prowse when it comes to set-piece execution. Sheffield United has been woefully exposed in set plays this season, having endured the most shots (38), expected goals (3.57) and goals (4). Last Sunday, Newcastle wreaked havoc through this avenue.

Tomas Soucek is a promising option to bet on scoring a header at odds of 14/1 with Sky Bet. Although his performance in open play has been declining, manager Moyes still considers him a valuable player and consistently includes him in the starting lineup when fit. This preference for Soucek's presence and threat in direct play has resulted in him starting in 121 games, more than any other outfield player under Moyes.

Although Soucek has not scored in his last 11 Premier League appearances, he has managed to take 17 shots on goal, indicating his potential for scoring. With an expected goal value of 1.91, it is evident that he has been getting close to finding the back of the net. Notably, nine of his attempts have been headers, including one that was impressively saved by Alisson in the match against Liverpool. Given the relatively weak opposition, the odds offered by Sky Bet for him to score a header seem quite generous. Furthermore, Soucek recently scored against Lincoln and Bačka Topolaso, further boosting confidence in his ability to find the net again, especially with a header.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Tomas Soucek to score a header (14/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Wolves vs Manchester City, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Finding true value in matches involving Manchester City can be a challenging task. However, a fruitful strategy has emerged in the form of putting your faith in Erling Haaland's ability to score headers, especially considering the favorable odds currently available. Surprisingly, bookmakers have yet to fully recognize his prowess in the air.

Out of Haaland's 36 goals in the Premier League last season, an impressive seven were scored with his head. His aerial finishing skills are exceptional, which comes as no surprise when you consider his towering height of over six feet and the exceptional service he receives from some of the world's top players. Additionally, Manchester City's style of play has evolved beyond the reputation of being exquisite passers. They now opt for a more direct approach, frequently delivering balls into the penalty area. This decision is obvious when you consider the presence of a dominant figure like Haaland in the middle of the field.

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Erling Haaland puts Manchester City ahead against Sheffield United with a header. He currently holds the record for the most headed goals this season in the Premier League, with 2. The odds for him scoring with his head were 6/1 against Sheffield United and 7/2 against Nottingham Forest. If you had bet on him without any other considerations, you would be making a significant profit. Sky Bet is offering odds of 9/2 for him to score with his head in this upcoming match as well.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-3

Tottenham vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

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Tottenham Hotspur vs Liverpool, live on We

If you're looking to pay good money to watch an exciting team, Tottenham should be at the top of your list right now. This upcoming game promises to be fantastic and potentially crazy, with both teams having strong attacking power. You could even bet on a 0-0 scoreline at odds of 22/1, which is one of the highest ever offered for such a result in a matchup between two 'big six' teams. The expected number of goals is close to four, so betting on over 3.5 goals at odds of 4/5 might seem tempting, but it's actually quite risky. Instead, consider betting on Heung-Min Son.

Rest assured that Son will constantly challenge Liverpool's offside trap, especially since he has taken on a new role as a central striker, resulting in him scoring five goals in his last three starts. In his 11 Premier League starts against Liverpool, Son has an impressive expected goal rate of 5.81 and has scored five times.

The issue at hand is his price, which is quite underwhelming at 6/4 with Sky Bet. However, there is a way to enhance it by including the possibility of him being caught offside at least once during the match. Thanks to the Bet Builder feature, this addition elevates the price to 7/2. It is worth noting that he has been caught offside 11 times in his 11 previous starts against Jurgen Klopp's side.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Nottingham Forest vs Brentford, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

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Nottingham Forest and Brentford will face off live on We. Thomas Frank, who is known for his problem-solving skills, has been unable to find the right balance for his Brentford side this season. They have only managed to beat Fulham in 90 minutes in all competitions. Considering how difficult it is to defeat Nottingham Forest at home, with only two losses in their last 17 matches at the City Ground, the odds of 6/4 for an away win seem low. I believe it is a safer bet to support Forest on the draw no bet market, with odds of 10/11.

I prefer taking a risk on Aaron Hickey's 50/1 first goalscorer price for Brentford over any other option. Hickey, a Scottish full-back, has become a key player for Brentford, starting the last 11 Premier League games and showing growth under Frank's guidance.

Furthermore, Hickey's offensive contributions from his position as a full-back have seen a notable increase. He has taken seven shots on goal in his previous five matches, including a challenging strike from a narrow angle against Newcastle, resulting in a 1-0 defeat. While he has yet to score for Brentford, it's possible that a goal may be just around the corner, making the odds of 50/1 too enticing to overlook for this weekend.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Aaron Hickey to score first (50/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Fulham vs Chelsea, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

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Fulham vs Chelsea, live on We

As someone who heavily relies on statistical analysis when evaluating teams, this match is causing me concern. All the data is suggesting that I should support Chelsea with even odds from Sky Bet, but my own observations tell me otherwise. I am conflicted.

I rarely have confidence in Fulham as a team because they consistently perform contrary to their statistical projections. The quality of scoring opportunities they provide to their opponents results in an expected goal value of 1.79 per 90 minutes. This figure should indicate that they are at risk of being relegated, and unfortunately, their performance has not improved this season. Last season, Southampton was relegated with an expected goals against record of 1.63 per 90 minutes.

Marco Silva's team has consistently conceded 3.5 goals less than the number of expected goals they have faced this season, making them the best in the Premier League in this regard. Their impressive performance continues. Despite my belief in a potential decline in Fulham's results, which would align with those typically seen from relegation-bound teams, they have remained defiant, even after losing Aleksander Mitrovic. Even in a match against Luton where they were expected to lose based on the number of expected goals, they managed to secure a victory. I am truly amazed by Silva's team.

Chelsea, on the other hand, has had the misfortune of experiencing their worst start to a Premier League season after six games, as indicated by the underlying statistics. Based on expected goals for and against, they rank sixth for expected goals for and third for expected goals against. In contrast, Mauricio Pochettino's team has consistently generated superior opportunities compared to their adversaries in all six Premier League matches this season.

What to do then? Trust the numbers? Or go with my gut which is telling me to swerve Chelsea? Numbers wins.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2