Serbia's Incumbent Party Poised for Victory in Parliamentary Election

President Aleksandar Vucic claimed victory in a surprise parliamentary election on Sunday, as pollsters anticipated that his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) would secure a decisive win. According to preliminary results from select polling stations, both Ipsos and CeSID predicted that the SNS had secured 46.2% of the vote, with the opposition center-left Serbia Against Violence (SPN) alliance trailing behind at 23.2%.

Vucic expressed his happiness, declaring the results an absolute victory. The Socialist Party of Serbia, led by Ivica Dacic, secured 6.7% of the vote and came in third place.

The parliamentary election, the fifth since 2012, overlaps with local elections in the majority of municipalities, as well as in the capital city Belgrade and Vojvodina province to the north.

Pollsters also reported that SNS secured the highest number of votes in Belgrade, obtaining 38.6% of the vote for city council and mayor, while the opposition SPN came in second with 35% of the vote.

Belgrade, with a population of 1.4 million people, accounts for approximately 25% of Serbia's electorate, making its mayor one of the most influential officials in the country.

CeSID and IPSOS have reported several irregularities, such as organized voter arrivals at polling stations, ballot photographing, and procedural errors.

The ruling party has been accused of election fraud by Serbia Against Violence, who stated they will file a complaint with the state election commission. "We have observed a significant attempt to manipulate the election," stated Miroslav Aleksic, one of the organization's leaders, on Sunday night.

18 parties and alliances vied for the endorsement of the 6.5 million-strong electorate to fill 250 parliamentary seats. An entry into parliament required at least 3% of votes.

Preliminary vote counts indicated that the SNS would likely secure a narrow majority of at least 127 deputies, allowing them to govern independently. However, they are anticipated to seek coalition partners to solidify their control of parliament.

Two mass shootings in May led to 18 deaths, including nine elementary school students, and sparked protests that undermined Vucic and the SNSs hold on power after a decade. Rising inflation of 8% in November only fueled the discontent.

Opposition parties and rights watchdogs have accused Vucic and the SNS of voter bribery, suppressing media freedom, violence against opponents, corruption, and connections to organized crime. Vucic and his allies have denied these claims.

The Election Commission of the state reported an attack on election monitors from CRTA watchdog in northern Serbia. Police later arrested one person in connection with the incident. The parliament is required by law to be convened within two weeks of the official announcement of final election results, and political parties then have 60 days to form a government.

Before joining the European Union, Serbia must work on normalizing relations with Kosovo, which declared independence in 2008. Talks between Belgrade and Pristina have stalled, and tensions are still high. Additionally, Serbia must address corruption and organized crime, improve its economy, and align its foreign policies with the EU, which may involve imposing sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.