Premier League Fever: Man City poised to conquer again, but will 7/1 Ederson feel the referee's fury?

Our resident tipster and betting guru Jones Knows is back to provide his tips and analysis across the Premier League card.

Burnley vs Manchester City, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

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Burnley vs Manchester City, live on We

It is a relief to someone like me who has always been frustrated with the lack of respect for referees and the inefficiencies in the top-level football timekeeping system to see a strong crackdown on time-wasting and dissent. The message has clearly been heard by the officials, as evidenced by the recent EFL fixture list. A total of 190 yellow cards were issued across the three leagues, which is 54 more than the previous season's opening weekend and the highest number in the last 20 years. Remarkably, 29 of these cards were given for timewasting, marking an increase of 28 from the previous opening weekend where only one such card was shown in all the fixtures.

Betting on yellow cards is a popular aspect of football betting, and this emerging trend is worth exploring in the early weeks of the season. Bookmakers may be cautious in setting the odds for booking points and individual cards markets. When bookmakers are feeling uncertain, bettors should take advantage, as the number of yellow cards is likely to increase.

In this season opener, referee Craig Pawson might try to make a statement in front of the cameras. I am particularly interested in Ederson at odds of 7/1 with Sky Bet to receive a yellow card. The Brazilian goalie has been booked in four of his last 12 away games, and he plays for a team that has a 79% chance of winning the match. This means there is a high probability that he will have the opportunity to slow down the game when his team, Manchester City, is in the lead. Pawson will be keeping a close eye on him.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Ederson to be carded (7/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 12.30pm

I am still skeptical about Arsenal's capacity to truly contend for significant titles this season, as my intuition indicates that they are being overhyped by the markets, positioning them as the second-best team after Manchester City.

The defensive decline, which now amounts to eight clean sheets in their last 33 games (including pre-season friendlies), must be addressed before I can fully trust them to reach the same heights as last season.

In the final few months of the season, teams found it relatively easy to create quality chances against them. They faced 100 shots on target in their last 24 league games, which is more than seven other teams, including the unexpectedly relegated Southampton. It may seem foolish to form a strong opinion based on a pre-season performance, but after covering their 1-1 draw with Monaco, it is clear that Mikel Arteta has not yet resolved the defensive issue, even with William Saliba back from injury. The French side created at least five significant chances in that match.

Until I witness tangible signs of defensive improvement, my strategy will revolve around capitalizing on Arsenal's lack of defensive solidity. Therefore, I am opting for both teams to score at Evens for this particular match. As for Forest, who were lackluster for the majority of the previous season, they began to exhibit a more liberated style of play in the latter stages, guided by the formidable partnership of Morgan Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson, resulting in a total of 14 goals across their last seven games.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Bournemouth vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Now, let's delve into the question of who Andoni Iraola is. In a captivating interview conducted in May, the recently-appointed Bournemouth manager provided my colleague Nick Wright with a captivating glimpse into his journey of transforming Rayo Vallecano into contenders in LaLiga.

If he can garner complete support from his players, then one can anticipate a dynamic and aggressive style of football, especially when it comes to pressing. However, this process may require some time. Despite the West Ham team's somewhat chaotic player recruitment during their preparation for the season, the no-frills and defensively-oriented approach of David Moyes make them an appealing choice in the betting market. With odds of 6/4 offered by Sky Bet, there is a possibility they may kick off the season with a victory.

The Hammers will have a great advantage in set-piece situations, without a doubt.

Last season, Bournemouth experienced 21 goals conceded from set pieces (excluding penalties), which was the highest among all teams. Additionally, Iraola Vallecano's team allowed a total of 23 goals from corners and free-kicks in his last two seasons in charge, once again the worst performance in this regard. This indicates that he does not prioritize organizational preparation for defensive set pieces, which leaves Moyes excited about the opportunity to exploit them from wide areas.

My attention is immediately drawn to Tomas Soucek due to his price. While his performance may be declining in this team, he still poses a significant threat during set pieces. In his last seven Premier League matches of the previous season, he managed to take 12 shots on goal, resulting in an expected goal value of 1.17 - quite an impressive return. It is worth noting that five of these attempts were headers, making the odds of 22/1 offered by Sky Bet for him to score with a header appear quite generous.

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Tomas Soucek scoring against Crystal Palace

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Tomas Soucek to score a header (22/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

Brighton vs Luton, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Contrary to the widely held belief that Luton will face defeat wherever they go, this notion is far too simplistic. While it is true that the club may be considered small in terms of size and financial resources, their promotion to the higher league was not a stroke of luck. Demonstrating remarkable consistency over the past two seasons, Luton achieved an impressive average of 77.5 points in the Championship per season. This is a testament to their exceptional organizational skills and team unity, allowing them to excel on the field and adapt a playing style that suits them best.

I am eager to see how this team, filled with players determined to prove themselves at this level, approaches their work. I expect there will be some controversy and exaggerated preseason predictions of high point totals, which will ultimately be proven wrong.

It's interesting because despite having predicted Brighton to be in the top four at odds of 15/2, I am reluctant to support them here at the very low odds of 2/7 with Sky Bet. Roberto De Zerbi's team struggled against defensive, low-block opponents at home last season, having drawn 0-0 with Nottingham Forest, 3-3 with Brentford, and losing to both Everton and Fulham. Luton, on the other hand, had the fewest goals conceded away from home (18) in the entire EFL last season and recorded the joint-most clean sheets on the road. Therefore, Rob Edwards won't need to make many adjustments to their style in order to play a frustrating game.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-0

When considering various plays, some options stand out. These include under 1.5 goals at 7/2 or Luton double chance at 3/1. However, the most promising choice appears to be Luton with a +2 handicap start at 10/11. This means that we will still receive a payout if Luton wins, draws, or loses by only one goal.

Everton vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

It is worth noting for those who anticipate the end of a trend or a potential trend-changing match that a draw may be on the horizon. It is interesting to mention that there has not been a draw in the last 24 league meetings at Goodison Park between these two teams, a streak that dates back to 1959. Additionally, Fulham's only draw in their previous 18 Premier League away games occurred in a goalless match against Chelsea in February.

The stalemate, with odds of 23/10 offered by Sky Bet, appears to be the most attractive outcome among the three matches. This choice emphasizes the likelihood of a low-scoring game.

It is important to highlight that Everton is currently without their key playmaker Dwight McNeil. Additionally, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who plays a crucial role in Sean Dyche's strategy, is struggling with persistent injury problems. Notably, Everton had the lowest number of home goals (16) in the previous Premier League season, three goals less than any other team. There is no indication to suggest a change in their attacking performance in the upcoming match.

Meanwhile, Fulham's struggles to find consistency may persist until the transfer window closes, as the ongoing transfer rumors surrounding key player Aleksander Mitrovic only add to their challenges.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm

At Bramall Lane, the typical energy and promise that often characterizes newly promoted teams in the early stages of a Premier League season is noticeably absent. Instead, it feels more like a disappointing serving of damp cornflakes.

The sale of Iliman Ndiaye is a major blow for Sheffield United, and it cannot be underestimated. He is widely regarded as one of the club's greatest players, and his departure has severely undermined their chances. The impact of his exit may not yet be reflected in the markets. Additionally, Sander Berge, who plays a crucial role in Paul Heckingbottom's attacking strategy with his strong ball-carrying ability, has also left the club.

The club is severely lacking in numbers at the start of the season, which means they could potentially let go of two games against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, games they could have won. It's a tough reality for a newly promoted team, as there are only 11-16 games they can realistically win in a season due to the strong competition at the top of the league. Losing out on two of those winnable matches due to poor management and planning off the field significantly reduces their chances of avoiding relegation.

Although it is still early and no matches have been played yet, the odds of 9/4 with Sky Bet for the club to finish at the bottom seem quite appealing. Similarly, the odds of 11/4 for Palace to win without conceding on Saturday also catch the eye.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

Newcastle vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Astonishing levels of optimism have engulfed Villa Park.

Ever since the arrival of Unai Emery, only Manchester City (57), Arsenal (53), Manchester United (52), and Liverpool (51) have managed to secure more Premier League points than Aston Villa. Incredibly, Villa lost a mere two out of their last 15 matches.

The markets reflect this confidence in Arsenal's chances of securing a top-six finish, with bookmakers giving them shorter odds than Brighton to place in the top six. This challenging opening match will serve as a valuable indicator of the team's expected performance under Emery.

Villa, known for their time-wasting tactics, will face challenges in adapting to the new crackdown. It is advisable to avoid betting on them in the opening weeks, particularly in matches like this where they are considered the underdogs.

Under Emery's leadership last season, Villa received 17 yellow cards for time-wasting, which was 10 more than any other team. As a result, bookmakers are aware of this trend, making it difficult to find a confident betting opportunity. However, it seems somewhat generous to consider Villa receiving more cards than Newcastle at even odds.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Brentford vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Brentford's home matches continue to be overpriced, even as a new season approaches.

Last season, the Bees experienced only two defeats in front of their loyal supporters. Their home ground creates a distinct atmosphere that leads to numerous challenges for visiting teams, particularly those with a vulnerability. This is where Spurs come into play.

Brentford

Tottenham Hotspur

Sunday 13th August 1:00pm

Kick off 2:00pm

There is a positive response from the fan base regarding Ange Postecoglou's attacking style of football. However, I am concerned that this emphasis on attack may leave the already unreliable Spurs defense vulnerable, particularly against direct teams like Brentford.

In the previous season, Tottenham's away matches were high-scoring affairs, with 11 out of 19 matches seeing over 3.5 goals. Considering this, I believe there is value in betting on a Brentford win and over 3.5 goals in the match at odds of 6/1.

Improved Performance Levels after Jurgen Klopp's Tactical Adjustment

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2

Ever since Jurgen Klopp made a crucial positional alteration for Trent Alexander-Arnold during the encounter against Arsenal last season, Liverpool has witnessed a remarkable surge in their performance levels. This strategic change involved focusing more on Alexander-Arnold's exceptional creative abilities, particularly in a central role. Although the prices in various betting markets have yet to reflect his new attack-minded hybrid position accurately, there are still advantageous betting opportunities to be exploited.

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Trent Alexander-Arnold is Liverpool's vice-captain this season

During that time frame, Alexander-Arnold excelled in several areas, including making the highest number of successful passes in the opposition half (382) and registering the most assists (seven) in his final 10 Premier League games of the previous season. Additionally, he ranked second in terms of penalty box entries (116), which refers to balls played into the box, trailing only behind Kieran Trippier. Moreover, he ranked fourth in creating chances (23).

Considering Liverpool's attacking style of play, it is highly likely that Alexander-Arnold will continue to perform well. Thus, it is recommended to place a bet of 3/1 with Sky Bet on him providing another assist at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

Chelsea vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports - PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Trent Alexander-Arnold assist (3/1 with Sky Bet - Bet Here!)

To comprehend the gloomy prospects for Wolves in the upcoming season, one only needs to examine their relegation odds since May. Back then, Sky Bet offered a favorable 6/1 when the team appeared to be thriving under Julen Lopetegui. However, the odds diminished to 7/2 by mid-June and further declined to 11/4 by the beginning of August. Presently, following the appointment of Gary O'Neil, the odds stand at 2/1.

The frustrations at the club are compounded by the influence of Financial Fair Play, as eloquently elucidated by my colleague Adam Bate in this insightful feature.

Starting with the fragment content:

Playing the first fixture away from home during a crisis is not an ideal situation. Wolves have only managed to win once at Old Trafford in the past 43 years. Additionally, Manchester United has remained unbeaten in their last 18 Premier League home games, with 15 wins and 3 draws, since their opening day defeat against Brighton. Given these factors, there is no reason to expect them to regress under their astute manager.

While the odds of a home win at 2/7 with Sky Bet may not excite many punters, an attractive alternative could be a United victory without conceding any goals, priced at 6/5. This is due to the fact that Wolves had the lowest goal tally in the league last season (31) and have not effectively addressed this issue.

Manchester United vs Wolves, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports