Pledges from climate talks fall short of limiting global warming to 15 degrees, according to IEA
Pledges fall short of limiting global warming to 15 degrees, per IEA analysis, despite efforts made by countries at UN-backed climate talks
The international energy agency's analysis, published on Sunday, shows that despite promises made by numerous countries at the UN-backed climate talks in Dubai, the world is still not on course to limit global warming to the critical 1.5-degree threshold. This assessment is the initial comprehensive report on the progress made at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai.
The findings indicate that the commitments fall short of the necessary measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming to a 1.5-degree Celsius increase from pre-industrial temperatures. Scientific evidence suggests that life on Earth will face significant challenges beyond this threshold.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described the pledges as "encouraging" and in accordance with certain recommendations the IEA had proposed prior to the negotiations. However, he emphasized that additional countries must commit to the pledges and that efforts to reduce fossil fuel usage are essential to address the shortfall.
"The most recent assessment by the IEA indicates that if fully carried out by the current signatories, these pledges would only close 30% of the gap towards achieving international climate targets," he informed CNN. "There is a necessity for more countries and companies to join the pledges and for an agreement on a systematic and fair reduction of global fossil fuel usage if we are to attain the 1.5°C objective."
The waters of Venice's Grand Canal turned green as 'Extinction Rebellion' climate activists staged a protest, with people riding in boats. (December 9, 2023) - Manuel Silvestri/Reuters
Climate activists from Extinction Rebellion turned the Grand Canal in Venice green as a protest during COP 28. The IEA stated that the pledges made would not be sufficient to meet international climate targets, especially limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Countries around the world, including the United States, have pledged to triple the world's renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency measures, and reduce methane emissions as part of their commitment to combating climate change. Over 120 countries have agreed to support these goals.
Fifty of the largest oil and gas companies, including Exxon and Saudi Aramco, have committed to reducing methane emissions from their operations by 80 to 90% by the end of the decade. They have also agreed to end routine flaring by 2030, which is the deliberate burning of natural gas during oil extraction. These commitments, if fully implemented, would result in a reduction of around 4 gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide (CO2) equivalent, according to the IEA.
The IEA stated that the reduction in 2030 emissions only addresses approximately 30% of the emissions gap required to align with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. At COP28, negotiators are considering an agreement that could include the world's first call for the phase-out of fossil fuels at the annual climate talks. Kaisa Kosonen, head of the Greenpeace COP28 delegation, reported that there are significant divisions, with over 100 countries supporting language for the phase-out of fossil fuels.
According to her, a group of countries led by Saudi Arabia opposes any mention of a phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuels. CNN has contacted Saudi Arabia for a response.
The main cause of the climate crisis is the consumption of fossil fuels. While countries reached an agreement to decrease coal production at the COP26 talks in Glasgow, negotiations regarding language on all fossil fuels, including oil and gas, are proving to be more difficult.
The discussions are taking place at the end of a year heavily impacted by the escalating climate crisis. It has been confirmed by scientists that 2023 is now officially the hottest year on record. Dangerous weather events, exacerbated by the climate crisis such as fires, floods, heatwaves, and hurricanes, have tragically resulted in loss of life in various regions around the globe.
