No respite in Biden's ongoing challenges with the Israel-Hamas conflict
Biden's headache over Israel-Hamas war persists despite a 48-hour truce extension, as strategic dilemmas and political headaches continue to plague the administration Concerns mount over missing Americans, potential escalation when fighting resumes
The Biden administration continues to grapple with strategic dilemmas and political challenges despite the 48-hour extension to the Israel-Hamas truce. The release of Palestinian prisoners and humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza reflect ongoing diplomatic efforts, but the delicate situation suggests a resumption of fighting is probable.
The top priority at the White House is locating the whereabouts of the Americans. Even though it was anticipated that at least three US citizens would be freed during the initial four-day hiatus, the only individual to emerge from Gaza was 4-year-old American-Israeli orphan, Abigail Edan, much to the frustration of US officials.
Initial reports reveal the harsh conditions faced by Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Despite Israel's willingness to consider extending the ceasefire, there is a warning that any future military action against Hamas will be more severe than before. This could result in further civilian casualties, as seen earlier in the conflict with the bombing of civilian areas and blockades of Gaza hospitals. The temporary domestic political respite that Biden is experiencing may be short-lived once air strikes resume, especially with internal divisions within his Democratic Party as the next election approaches.
There are increasing signs that President Biden's efforts to secure over $14 billion in aid for Israel are facing even greater uncertainty in Congress. The proposed package has become entangled in disputes over a larger Ukraine aid package and US border security, highlighting how domestic political issues are hindering Washington's ability to act on the international stage.
While the administration's strong warnings to its adversaries have so far helped to keep the conflict contained, concerns about regional escalation persist. The threat to US personnel was made evident when American officials reported that two ballistic missiles were launched from Houthi rebel-controlled Yemen toward a US warship in the Gulf of Aden.
The missing Americans
US authorities closely monitored Hamas' release of an additional 11 hostages on Monday, the deadline of the original truce agreement, with particular attention. The hope was that the two American women who were taken captive during the Hamas terror attacks on October 7 would be liberated. However, they did not appear, leading officials to instead anticipate their inclusion in Hamas' extended releases over the next two days.
"It is challenging to determine the process they use to compile these lists," stated National Security Council representative John Kirby during an interview with CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Monday. "We sincerely hope that in the next two days, in the upcoming installments, we will witness the safe return of some Americans."
Israeli security forces are seen standing beside ambulances at the helipad of Tel Aviv's Schneider medical centre on November 24, 2023, as they prepare for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.
(Photo by Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images)
Who have been the hostages released as part of the Israel-Hamas deal so far? Yehuda Beinin, father of Liat Beinin, a 49-year-old American woman with dual Israeli citizenship, expressed ongoing concern for Liat and her husband, Aviv Atzili, who is also believed to be a hostage. "We can only continue to remain hopeful," he told CNN's Erin Burnett.
The administration is facing serious challenges, such as the uncertainty of how many Americans are being held in Gaza and whether those Washington suspects are alive. During a White House briefing, Kirby told reporters that the number is likely less than 10, around eight to nine, but there is not firm information on each individual. Additionally, it is believed that 40 hostages are held by other Palestinian militant groups, such as Islamic Jihad, and it is uncertain if any of these hostages are Americans.
A senior official from the administration stated on Monday that the White House does not believe that Hamas purposefully held back two American women who the US had hoped would be freed as part of the release of 50 hostages during the four-day truce.
There is skepticism surrounding the possible release of young male hostages, as hostage releases so far have focused on women and children. Experts caution that young male hostages may be seen as more valuable by Hamas leaders, leading to increased demands for their release. The current exchange ratio stands at three Palestinians freed for every one captive from the October 7 attacks, and Israel has not released any male hostages over the age of 18.
There is concern about the fate of the male hostages if truces are not extended indefinitely, with the potential for a resumption of fighting creating uncertainty. Anxiety is particularly high for members of the Israeli armed forces who were captured.
Rachel Goldberg's 23-year-old son, Hersh, was severely injured and taken captive by Hamas during the attack on the Nova music festival. She expressed to CNN's Jake Tapper her concern that none of the freed hostages could provide any information about his location or condition. "We are extremely worried. We feel the pressure of time," Goldberg stated. "Our son, an American civilian, is seriously wounded, and we are anxious like any parent would be."
Security analysts speculate that Hamas may see the value in holding US hostages, potentially leveraging them to increase American pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prolong the ceasefire that has allowed Hamas to regroup and prepare for further operations despite ongoing Israeli attacks.
When fighting begins again
The pressure on Biden to secure the release of American hostages in Gaza is set to intensify as lawmakers return to Washington after the Thanksgiving break. Republicans, in particular, are keen to paint him as weak and are likely to use this issue to further their narrative. "It appears that Hamas has such little regard for President Biden and American influence that they are choosing to release Filipino and Thai hostages before considering the release of Americans," remarked GOP Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas during an appearance on Fox on Sunday.
Hostage releases and aid shipments into Gaza, as promised in the original deal, have provided much-needed humanitarian relief to Palestinians. However, there is little faith that the truce will hold permanently. The US is intensifying efforts to extend the cessation of hostilities. On Monday, officials announced that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would be returning to the region this week, with planned stops in Dubai, the West Bank, and Israel.
In the event of renewed fighting, Israeli operations are expected to focus on densely populated southern Hamas strongholds and crowded refugee camps, increasing the risk of significant civilian casualties and provoking an international backlash against Israel. President Biden has already experienced the negative fallout from such operations, facing criticism from both US allies abroad and key domestic constituencies, including young progressives and Muslim American voters crucial for the upcoming election. A report from the Washington Post suggests that even his own staff are discontented. Thus, it is likely that he will face a similar or even more severe political challenge when the conflict reignites.
Fears of escalation
Biden finds himself at odds with numerous American and foreign leaders and officials who would typically be considered his political allies on this issue. This situation brings into question whether he will change his firm stance and urge Netanyahu to agree to a lasting ceasefire, a decision that could undermine Israel's efforts to defeat Hamas.
The Biden administration has had a significant accomplishment in preventing the conflict from escalating into a full regional war through strong warnings and military displays. Although adversaries like Iran have not joined the conflict and escalation has been avoided, the administration must remain vigilant.
Two ballistic missiles fell within 10 nautical miles of the USS Mason, a guided-missile destroyer in the Gulf of Aden that went to the aid of a tanker under attack from suspected Somali pirates, according to US officials. The missiles were fired from areas controlled by Houthi rebels in Yemen, a Shia group backed by Iran in the past. Houthis have launched numerous attacks against US interests and Israel since the October 7 Hamas assault. The USS Mason did not attempt to shoot down the missiles, and the Pentagon has not confirmed if the vessel was specifically targeted.
Former defense secretary under the Trump administration, Mark Esper, warned against considering the incident a coincidence, and criticized the administration's response to attacks by Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria, and other regions. "I don't think the administration's response has been sufficient with regards to attacks by Iranian proxies," Esper told CNN.
He went on to say, "I understand their concerns and fears of potential escalation if they take action. However, I believe that if they don't take decisive action, the attacks will persist. Eventually, American lives will be lost, and that's when the situation will truly escalate."
