Newcastle's Struggles Amplify: Examining Eddie Howe's Side's Decline After Defeats to Man City, Liverpool, and Brighton in Premier League

Newcastle's impressive charge towards securing Champions League football last season has been followed by a disheartening slump, with three defeats in their first four games this season. This unexpected and underwhelming start raises questions about the reasons behind their struggles, despite an impressive investment of £130m on transfers. It appears that regaining the level of consistency demonstrated last season may require a considerable amount of time and effort.

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Newcastle United

Brentford

Saturday 16th September 5:00pm

Kick off 5:30pm

Newcastle's start to the season has been particularly challenging, facing off against teams that all finished in the top seven last year. It's worth noting that last season, Eddie Howe's team managed to accumulate only four points from these initial four matches, which is just a solitary point more than their current total.

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Newcastle sit in 14th place in the bottom half of the table as they move on to the next round of fixtures. Their upcoming schedule is set to become more favorable, starting with a match against ninth-placed Brentford this Saturday, which will be televised by Sky. It is worth noting that none of Newcastle's next five opponents managed to finish in the top half of the table last season. However, these matches will be interspersed with midweek Champions League fixtures.

Newcastle's strength last season was due to their consistent selection, especially in their defense. However, the recent loss to Brighton highlighted a rare occurrence where one of their first-choice back four did not start, which has only happened eight times since August 2022.

Whenever changes have been required, there has been a noticeable decline in Newcastle's performance. This decline is evident not just in terms of wins, points, and goals conceded, but also in the number of shots faced, with an increase of over 50% in shots conceded.

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Newcastle made minimal alterations to their lineup last season, with Arsenal being the sole Premier League club making fewer changes to their starting XI. However, with the imminent arrival of European matches, it is expected that the team will need to make more adjustments in the following months in order to adapt effectively.

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Recent acquisitions are expected to bring about improvement in this area. Howe has allowed sufficient time for most of them to acclimate, with the exception of Sandro Tonali. The Italian midfielder made a notable impression during his initial appearance, but has been less impactful in subsequent matches.

Newcastle's middle third has been vulnerable to opponents this season. In terms of passes completed between their defensive and midfield lines, only Bournemouth has allowed more than them. Additionally, only five other clubs have had more players bypassed by opponent's passes—a significant change from last season, where Howe's side held a stronger position in these metrics.

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Furthermore, there have been noticeable declines in recent times. Remarkably, Newcastle now sits 18th in terms of the number of passes played into the box, a significant drop from their second place ranking in the Premier League last season. This suggests that the midfield combination has yet to achieve the desired equilibrium in both attacking and defensive aspects.

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Open Privacy Options: Though the slow beginning may be disheartening, Newcastle's underlying metrics indicate that prolonged frustration is unlikely. By emphasizing a team's expected goal difference, which essentially measures the predicted number of goals a club is anticipated to score compared to their opponents, one can gain valuable insight into performance beyond mere results and league standings.

Last season, Newcastle secured the second spot overall, surpassing Arsenal but still falling behind the dominant Manchester City. With a slight improvement in their offensive performance, which lagged behind only one top-half team in terms of goal production, Newcastle could have achieved an even more impressive outcome.

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Despite a difficult beginning, injuries, and a new midfield partnership, Newcastle currently holds the sixth position in expected goal difference, surpassing Tottenham and Manchester United. With a more favorable schedule in the upcoming weeks, their statistics are expected to improve even further.

The addition of European fixtures presents a fresh obstacle to overcome. This is likely to result in additional alterations and the need for new signings to make a significant impact, which might require some time. It will be more challenging to replicate last season's final placement, but there is minimal indication that Howe's team will not remain competitive for European football by the month of May.