Navigating Netanyahu's Dilemma: Balancing Israeli Security Amidst Iran Tensions
As Iran's threats loom and allies caution against missteps, can Netanyahu steer clear of escalating tensions and prevent a regional conflict?
Israel, with the help of its allies, narrowly avoided a dangerous situation on Sunday. In fact, 60 tons of explosives carried by over 350 Iranian projectiles, some even larger than a family car, were unable to penetrate Israel's defenses.
Despite warnings from US President Joe Biden and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Israel is considering taking action. Israel sees deterrence as crucial for its survival, but Iran is challenging that belief by threatening severe retaliation.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami announced a new strategy, stating, "We have decided to create a new equation and will retaliate against Israel."
Israel has a history of executing bold raids in response to existential threats. In 1981, they secretly bombed Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osirak before it became operational. Similarly, in 2007, they bombed a nuclear reactor in Syria before it could be completed under dictator Bashar al Assad.
Both attacks combined intelligence with traditional military resources. Israel took 11 years to acknowledge the strike on Syria. The key takeaway is that Israel will not reveal its attack strategies in advance, unlike Iran did recently.
Aside from the main members of Israel's war cabinet, which include Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Netanyahu's former political rival Benny Gantz, there are over a dozen other individuals who gather at the Kirya, Israel's top security defense headquarters in Tel Aviv, to discuss and plan their next steps.
London School of Economics Professor Fawaz Gerges joins Isa Soares to discuss how Israel may respond to Iran's recent attack.
London School of Economics Professor Fawaz Gerges joins Isa Soares to discuss how Israel may respond to Iran's recent attack.
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Gerges is concerned that Biden may unknowingly lead the U.S. into another conflict in the Middle East. It is worth mentioning that important figures like Mossad Chief David Barnea and Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi have been involved in the discussions.
Netanyahu is under immense pressure from his hard right governing coalition. Bezalel Smotrich is urging him to "restore deterrence," while Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir is calling on the prime minister to "go crazy."
Internationally, Israel's allies are condemning Iran's attack but are also urging restraint. Some are unhappy with Netanyahu's treatment of Gaza's Palestinians following Hamas's brutal October 7 attack. Calls for new sanctions on Tehran are increasing.
War cabinet members Ganz and Gallant are both excited about the diplomatic opportunity. Ganz mentioned the plan to form a regional coalition to make Iran pay a price, while Gallant highlighted the chance to create an international coalition and strategic alliance to counter Iran's threat. The defence minister strongly suggested targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, calling it a state that wants to put nuclear warheads on its missiles.
On the other hand, Netanyahu emphasized the importance of the international community staying united against Iranian aggression, which poses a threat to global peace.
Netanyahu's next step is expected to focus on solidifying sanctions and taking action before negative news about Gaza affects the positive international support he currently has.
The pressure is on as time is running out. He requires time to plan a major unexpected attack and also time to gather support from the global community. Balancing these two tasks will put his political skills to the ultimate test.
Recent evidence indicates that he is no longer in touch with the local community as before.
Earlier this year, Israel carried out a precise and targeted assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, the leader of Hamas in Lebanon, in a Beirut apartment. Amos Yadlin, a former fighter pilot and head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate, mentioned to me that Israel was careful to stay within certain boundaries to prevent further escalation.
"The threshold for deterrence is quite flexible," Yadlin explained. "It is a decision made by a leader to give the command to launch a missile and potentially start a war."
Christiane Amanpour speaks with Former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper about the consequences of Iran's attack on Israel and whether the region is on the precipice of war.
Christiane Amanpour speaks with Former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper about the consequences of Iran's attack on Israel and whether the region is on the precipice of war.
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Former U.S. Defense Secretary believes that "Iran will change the paradigm forever" amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Yadlin, an expert on deterrence and Israel's history of striking existential threats, played a crucial role in significant operations. As a fighter pilot, he destroyed Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981. Later, in 2007, as the intelligence chief, he orchestrated the daring strike that took down Bashar al-Assad's nuclear plant.
Iran's leaders declared last weekend that Netanyahu made a grave mistake by planning to assassinate Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the commander of the IRGC overseeing their allies in Syria and Lebanon. This incident occurred at their consulate in Damascus on April 1. Netanyahu's decision crossed a red line.
One expert mentioned, "I believe the Iranians will proceed with caution, even if provoked and facing losses. They are not at the point of starting a war with the US or Israel. The potential damage to Iran would be immense."
Right now, the key question is whether Netanyahu can accurately assess the situation. With Iran making threats and allies cautioning him, it is crucial for him to avoid escalating tensions and potentially sparking a regional conflict.
Yadlin's analysis provides valuable perspective on this issue. He suggests that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel as long as it is concerned about how the United States would respond. Given Netanyahu's strained relationship with the Biden administration following the Gaza conflict, Israel's adversaries may see an opportunity to exploit this vulnerability.
Since the US abstained at a UN Security Council vote last month to call for ceasefire in Gaza, Hamas has taken an intransigent turn to hostage negotiations.
Netanyahu, known for his political survival skills, is now facing the biggest gamble of his career. He is risking the blood of his nation over Iran's interpretation of his rift with America.
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