Nationwide Offensive Signals the Decline of Myanmar's Junta, Vow Opponents
Myanmar's junta faces a watershed moment as resistance intensifies nationwide Key border towns lost, troops surrendering, and a stretched military put their hold on power at risk The future hangs in the balance
Myanmar's military junta is currently facing its largest challenge since the coup almost three years ago, as armed ethnic militias and resistance forces coordinate major offensives across the nation. As a result, the junta is losing strategic border towns, key military positions, and vital trade routes at a scale not seen in decades, according to experts.
Matthew Arnold, an independent analyst of Myanmar, stated that the junta is currently collapsing due to a collective effort across the country. He described the resistance as focusing on seizing major towns to ultimately defeat the military, calling it an "existential moment for the military."
Operation 1027, initiated by a coalition of three ethnic rebel armies in late October, has escalated into a widespread effort to seize control of towns and regions in Myanmar's northern, western, and southeastern areas. The United Nations reports that nearly 200 civilians have been killed and 335,000 people have been displaced due to the fighting since October 27.
The civil war between Myanmar's numerous ethnic armies and consecutive military administrations has been ongoing for many years. However, the recent increase in conflict is a result of widespread public opposition to the coup in February 2021, which saw the removal of the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi by army chief Min Aung Hlaing.
The military's harsh crackdown on peaceful protesters and documented abuses against civilians has led to a surge in armed resistance as people seek to protect their communities in both rural and urban areas of Myanmar.
Since then, daily clashes have occurred between the military and resistance groups allied with the anti-junta National Unity Government in exile. The Myanmar military's airstrikes and ground attacks on what they label as "terrorist" targets have resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians, including children, and the displacement of approximately 2 million people.
Those involved in the conflict assert that they are ultimately striving to overthrow the junta and create a federal democracy where all of Myanmar's people have equal rights and representation.
Dismantling a deeply rooted institution such as the military, which has governed through brutality and fear for fifty years, will not be easy. The military's refusal to step down could further escalate conflict in Myanmar.
Although the recent increase in conflict since October 27 has not spread to major cities like Yangon, Mandalay, or Naypyidaw, it signifies a significant shift in resistance. The UN Office for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that armed clashes are now the largest and most widespread since the takeover.
"We are already seeing the beginning of the end of the State Administration Council," said Bo Nagar, commander of the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), which is engaged in combat against the military in central Myanmar, speaking to CNN.
In this photo taken on March 9, 2023 members of ethnic rebel group Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) patrol near Namhsan Township in Myanmar's northern Shan State.
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Turning point
The Three Brotherhood Alliance, consisting of the Taang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Kokang's Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Arakan Army (AA), along with allied people's defense forces, has announced its October offensive with a pledge to eliminate the oppressive military dictatorship.
The objectives included protecting civilian lives, asserting the right to self-defense, maintaining territorial control, and responding firmly to ongoing artillery attacks and airstrikes. The alliance also pledged to combat the widespread online gambling fraud in Myanmar, especially along the China-Myanmar border.
Along the borders of China and Thailand, there has been a rapid increase in Chinese-operated complexes in various towns. These compounds are suspected to be hubs for widespread online fraud and illicit gambling, and are reportedly supported by militia groups, resulting in the exploitation and trafficking of numerous individuals to work as online scammers.
According to members of resistance armies and analysts interviewed by CNN, the military's control over the country has been limited, and the ongoing multi-front war has stretched its capabilities, forcing it into a defensive position, particularly in the northeast region.
At a defense and security meeting with the top brass in early November, the junta-installed president of Myanmar, Myint Swe, issued a rare warning. He stated that "if the government does not effectively manage the incidents happening in the border region, the country will be split into various parts."
Members of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), an ethnic rebel group, are seen participating in a training exercise at their forest base camp in Myanmar's northern Shan State in this photo taken on March 8, 2023.
CNN has contacted the military spokesperson in Myanmar for comment on the recent fighting, but has not yet received a response.
The junta has confirmed their involvement in "heavy assaults" and has allegedly instructed government staff and individuals with military experience in the capital to prepare for potential emergency service, as reported by Reuters. Additionally, martial law has been enacted in multiple northeast towns.
The armed forces declared during the defense meeting that they will consistently provide essential security measures to maintain peace and stability in the region.
The junta has refuted allegations made in state media about stationing 14,000 troops in the capital Naypyidaw to protect the main military headquarters from offensives. They have also denied recruiting public servants for military training, dismissing both claims as "fake news and misinformation."
Key border towns lost, reports of army troops surrendering
In the rugged northern border areas of Shan state, the military regime has ceded authority over a minimum of six municipalities, including Chin Shwe Haw and Kunlong - both crucial border towns for trade and transportation with China - major thoroughfares, and over 100 military outposts and encampments, as reported by rebel forces interviewed by CNN and local independent media.
Cutting off those transport routes has effectively eliminated a crucial source of revenue for the financially struggling junta, which is subject to international sanctions. The alliance has seized control of Chin Shwe Haw and the roads leading to the town of Muse, through which 98% of cross-border trade with China is conducted, totaling $2.2 billion from April to October this year, according to Myanmar's data.
In the western Rakhine state, the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic minority armed group, has resumed fighting following the breakdown of a temporary ceasefire that lasted for a year, creating a new battleground. Ongoing clashes with junta forces are taking place in multiple townships, and the town of Pauktaw has become "a war zone," as reported by U Nan Diya, a local village abbot monk.
There are also reports of army defections and whole battalions surrendering.
People queue for food at a monastery-turned-temporary shelter for internally displaced people in Lashio, Shan state on November 15, 2023.
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Fighting near the state capital Loikaw in the jungles of southeast Kayah state has been captured in a video published by the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, showing Myanmar army soldiers surrendering to rebels at Loikaw University. The rebels are seen treating the injuries of the surrendered soldiers. However, CNN cannot independently verify the events. In western Chin state, thousands of people have fled the fighting and crossed the Indian border to Mizoram. Among the refugees were 43 Myanmar soldiers who fled after their military camps were seized by rebels, according to Mizoram police official Lalmalsawma Hnamte. Reuters reported that dozens of the soldiers were sent back to Myanmar.
Resistance fighters interviewed by CNN stated that the junta soldiers they have encountered no longer have the motivation to engage in combat. Lin Lin, the spokesperson for the Burma Peoples Liberation Army, which is active in the north of Myanmar alongside the Three Brotherhood Alliance and in the southeast, attributed this lack of morale to the soldiers' perception of insufficient support from the local civilians.
The reason some towns are being besieged has more to do with the lack of will to fight rather than a shortage of weapons. This change in attitude has made it easier for our military to achieve victories, although there are reports of fierce battles in central strongholds where reinforcements and supplies are more accessible.
"When the military column goes to a certain village, we endeavor to divert their attention so that they do not reach their intended destination by employing aggressive strategies. There have been instances when we were outnumbered and had to withdraw, and that is when they launched attacks and wreaked havoc upon the civilian population," said Bo Nagar, the BNRA commander in Sagaing region.
Military stretched thin
Analysts suggest that the military lacks the manpower and fighting capabilities needed to retake the losses, despite using airstrikes and heavy weaponry. "Predicting the outcome of the ongoing military progress is challenging," said Ye Myo Hein, a fellow at the United States Institute of Peace and the Wilson Center. "However, it is certain that Operation 1027 has shifted the military equilibrium in favor of the resistance." He added that the military is currently facing relentless attacks across the country.
The Sit-Tat, also known as the military, was analyzed by Ye Myo Hein in May and findings suggested that it is actually much smaller than previously believed. It consists of only about 150,000 personnel and 70,000 combat soldiers, which makes it "barely able to sustain itself as a fighting force, much less a government."
On September 24, 2023, a photograph was captured of Karen state Border Guard Forces (BGF) patrolling the Yangon-Myawaddy section of the Asia Highway road near Kawkareik township.
"During a brief pause in the conflict in northern Shan state, the military's decision to move troops from that region to Karenni and Sagaing enabled groups in northern Shan State to rapidly make significant military advancements. Any additional troop movements could create opportunities for resistance to make substantial progress in those areas," Ye Myo Hein informed CNN.
There is growing worry that the junta is retaliating against its battlefield defeats by targeting the civilian population.
The Myanmar military has a long history of using violence against civilians as a strategy, and there is mounting evidence that army troops have been systematically bombing, burning, and committing other human rights abuses in the wake of the coup.
Monitoring groups have reported junta airstrikes and artillery hitting multiple villages in Myanmar since the start of the October offensive. On November 15, a military airstrike in Chin State's Matupi village resulted in the death of 11 people, including eight children, according to the National Unity Government.
What comes next
Situated between the major powers of China and India, with Thailand to the south and Bangladesh to the west, the conflict in Myanmar has the potential to disrupt its relationships with neighboring countries.
The junta's failure to secure its borders and the influx of new waves of refugees fleeing into neighboring countries has put the nation at risk of upsetting one of its main global allies and primary source of investment: China.
The aftermath of an airstrike in Pazigyi village in Myanmar's Kanbalu Township, as depicted in this photo provided by the Kyunhla Activists Group, has resulted in the deaths of dozens of villagers on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. Reports from witnesses and independent media confirm that the air attack was carried out by the military government of Myanmar.
Myanmar airstrike survivors are questioning what it will take for the world to intervene, as they mourn the deaths of more children. Meanwhile, China's military carried out live-fire drills and training near the border as conflict continues to devastate the region.
According to Senior Colonel Tian Junli, a representative of the PLA Southern Theater Command, the theater command forces are always ready to address different emergencies and are committed to protecting national sovereignty, border stability, and the lives and property of the people. The Global Times reported that the drills were part of routine training and were defensive in nature, focusing on safeguarding Chinese sovereignty, border stability, and the safety of personnel in light of the civil war in Myanmar, rather than intervening in the neighboring country's internal affairs.
Arnold stated that Myanmar's neighboring countries have lost their access to the country, serving as a "brutal reality check" for the junta.
"Neighboring countries have heavily invested in maintaining positive relations with the junta. However, losing access to Myanmar has shifted their entire geopolitical calculus. This holds true for China, India, and Thailand," he explained.
Prior to 2011, Myanmar was under military rule for over fifty years, characterized by brutality and oppression, resulting in the country being isolated and impoverished. The ethnic populations in Myanmar's jungles and mountains have endured and suffered through years of violence, including massacres, sexual violence, forced labor, and displacement by the military, as well as discrimination sanctioned by the state.
Protesters are escorted by anti-coup fighters as they participate in a rally against the military coup in Sagaing, located in the Sagaing Division of Myanmar on September 7, 2022. In the northwest Sagaing region of Myanmar, numerous local "Peoples Defence Forces" are engaged in combat with the military and striving to reverse the coup executed last year. Equipped with little more than homemade weapons and a deep understanding of the local terrain, some of these factions have taken the military by surprise with their effectiveness, according to analysts. - TO GO WITH 'MYANMAR-CONFLICT-COUP' (Photo by AFP) / TO GO WITH 'MYANMAR-CONFLICT-COUP' (Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images)
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The coup brought a sudden end to a 10-year transition period that had seen brief progress in democratic and economic reforms. Despite the civilian government under Suu Kyi, the military still held significant power, and many ethnic groups continued to face documented abuses and violence.
According to some analysts, Myanmar is now more poised than ever to overthrow the junta and achieve its goal of establishing a truly democratic government.
Arnold emphasized that it is crucial to understand that a genocidal military can be completely defeated, without the necessity of another 10 years of a transition that is compromised by the notion of negotiating with and accommodating such a military. And those fighting are cautiously optimistic.
Bo Nagar stated that in working together, they have grown stronger in their pursuit of a federal democratic country with equal rights. He expressed his confidence in the collective strength leading to overcoming the oppressive military. Furthermore, he emphasized that this unity will serve as the groundwork for the reconstruction of their country once the conflict is resolved.
