High-Stakes Showdown: House Prepares for Crucial Vote to Oust McCarthy

The fate of Speaker Kevin McCarthy's political career hangs in the balance as GOP Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida seeks his removal. McCarthy announced on Tuesday that he will bring the motion to vacate to the first vote series of the day. Gaetz's motion to vacate the chair, a rare procedural tactic, prompted this move to force a vote on removing the speaker.

"I am certain that I will endure," McCarthy declared in response to questioning from journalists.

The movement to remove McCarthy poses the gravest danger yet to the leadership position of the California Republicans, signifying a significant intensification of conflicts within the House GOP conference. If McCarthy is indeed removed, it could plunge the conference into even deeper turmoil.

McCarthy's ability to retain his speakership relies on a delicate balance of support within his party. With a maximum allowance of four GOP defections, he would need all Democrats to vote against him and have every member present and voting in order to survive. However, there are already five Republicans who have pledged their support for his removal, which means that he would have to rely on Democratic votes to hold onto his position. This assumes that there are no significant absences during the vote. House Democrats harbor a considerable amount of distrust and anger towards McCarthy due to his actions as speaker and the agenda of the House GOP.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries made it clear on Tuesday that Democrats will not come to McCarthy's rescue. "They absolutely need to find a resolution to put an end to the ongoing House Republican Civil War," he stated on X, addressing the House Republicans.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC, October 3, 2023.

Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

McCarthy acknowledged the challenging obstacles he faces before the vote, stating, "If five Republicans side with Democrats, then I am no longer in the running." When questioned about the likelihood of this scenario, he reluctantly replied, "It is possible." McCarthy expressed that he does not anticipate receiving support from Democrats during the vote.

The movement to remove the speaker arises from a group of staunch conservatives who have persistently obstructed McCarthy's agenda by voting against critical GOP initiatives and consistently impeding his plans. It is worth noting that no House speaker has ever been removed by passing a resolution.

It is not yet clear how the process will unfold, but the initial vote on the motion to vacate may serve as a procedural attempt to halt the effort. If the procedural vote fails, a direct vote to remove McCarthy as speaker would follow, requiring a simple majority for success.

McCarthy seemed to dismiss the possibility of a power-sharing agreement with Democrats, stating to CNN's Manu Raju, "that approach is ineffective."

"I identify as a Republican, someone who upholds conservative values and aims to achieve tangible results. While I acknowledge the importance of compromise, we must remember that we currently hold the majority. We should not surrender," he expressed.

Rep. Matt Gaetz speaks to reporters after a House Republican caucus meeting at the Capitol on Tuesday in Washington, DC.

Drew Angerer/Getty Images

According to sources, McCarthy informed his members that he would not negotiate with Democrats.

During a Tuesday party meeting, Gaetz faced questioning from his colleagues regarding his proposed plan and the potential replacement for McCarthy. Sources revealed that Gaetz promptly stood up and stated that a new speaker's election would have to take place, although he did not disclose any specific candidates he had in mind.

In order to compel a vote, a member needs to go to the House floor and declare their intention to present the resolution for the removal of the speaker, as Gaetz did. This action compels the speaker to include the resolution in the legislative schedule within two legislative days, thus leading to a direct confrontation on the floor regarding the matter.

Nevertheless, even when the resolution is on the path to being considered on the floor, it is still possible for the vote on the speaker's removal to be preempted.

For instance, when a resolution is brought up for discussion, a motion to table it, effectively ending its consideration, may be proposed and will be the first vote taken. This vote would only require a simple majority to pass. If it does pass, there would be no direct vote on the resolution to remove the speaker, as the resolution would be set aside for future consideration.

Please note that this story has been revised to include new developments.