Fears escalate over an intensified conflict in the Middle East with US troops at risk
Rising tensions in the Middle East pose a grave threat as attacks on US troops and commercial shipping escalate With Iran and its proxies involved, fears are mounting that Israel's conflict in Gaza could spark a wider regional war, impacting politics and economies
The increasing attacks on US troops and commercial shipping, often involving Iran and its proxies, are raising concerns that the conflict in Gaza could expand into a larger regional conflict with significant political and economic ramifications. American service members are at greater risk, and US and allied naval assets are on high alert following multiple drone attacks, creating a tense holiday period for the White House.
The escalating risk of US military casualties and the deteriorating security situation from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea, extending through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel, presents an unwelcome new international crisis as President Joe Biden's reelection year unfolds. It is also serving as a testing ground for a new geopolitical trend - continuous challenges to America's determination and credibility by its enemies and their proxies. Israel's warnings that its conflict with Hamas in Gaza will persist for months, despite US pressure to de-escalate the situation, raise the possibility of an escalation of the conflict and a deeper US involvement.
A flurry of dangerous escalations
The initial fear of a regional war erupting after Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel, resulting in 1,200 deaths, and Israel's subsequent onslaught on Gaza did not immediately materialize. Despite limited exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, tensions remained high. However, the recent pace of attacks and escalations has raised concerns about the potential for further rising tensions and deadly consequences.
Biden has authorized airstrikes on Monday targeting facilities utilized by pro-Iranian Kataib Hezbollah militia fighters in Iraq. This action comes in response to an alleged drone attack on Erbil Air Base that resulted in critical injuries to an American service member. These attacks represent the most recent incidents of aggression by Iranian proxy groups against US forces involved in anti-terror operations in Syria or Iraq.
The Pentagon is seen from the air on March 3, 2022.
Joshua Roberts/Reuters
After an attack on US troops, US airstrikes targeted Kataib Hezbollah sites in Iraq. US forces intercepted a barrage of drones and missiles over the Red Sea on Tuesday, fired by Houthi rebels, an Iranian-backed group in Yemen, according to US Central Command. Iranian intelligence has been implicated in plotting attacks on commercial shipping, leading some freight lines to reroute their vessels around Africa, bypassing the Suez Canal, and causing concern for the global supply chain. Iran has denied any involvement.
The reach of instability is now extending towards India as a result of an Iranian attack drone striking a chemical tanker in the Indian Ocean, 200 nautical miles from the Indian coast on Saturday, according to the Pentagon. Iran has consistently denied any involvement.
Iran and some of its proxies have accused Israel of killing a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps commander in an airstrike in a suburb of the Syrian capital, Damascus. Israel has declined to comment on the allegations, but the IRGC has threatened retaliation for the killing of Seyyed Razi Mousavi, stating that "the Israeli regime would undoubtedly pay the price for this crime."
The consequences of a worsening security situation
The recent series of new events highlights the possibility of a perilous intensification of the conflict, exposes the degree to which US forces are directly at risk, and clarifies the growing desperate pleas from Washington for Israel to reduce the fighting in Gaza.
In the event of future US soldier casualties or significant damage to naval assets, Washington would be left with little option but to become more involved in the Middle East, despite the efforts of the last three presidents to disengage from the region. Christopher O'Leary, former director of hostage recovery for the US government, stated on "CNN News Central" on Tuesday that while the situation in the region has not yet reached worst-case scenarios, the potential for deterioration is always present.
O'Leary stated that the Israel-Hamas war is a part of the larger plan by the axis of resistance, an Iran-controlled strategy to gain regional influence and power through various groups such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Kataib Hezbollah, and the Houthis. He warned that the attacks thus far have been relatively restrained, including the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, but these should be viewed as potential warnings of what Iran's surrogate forces are capable of if they were fully unleashed. This would pose a significant regional threat, particularly to US troops stationed in Iraq and Syria.
The situation is perilous for US troops in Iraq and Syria, as they are vulnerable to attacks by militant groups loyal to Iran. Republicans have criticized Biden for not taking enough action against these adversaries, although the administration has been cautious to avoid escalating tensions into a larger conflict. The distinction between maintaining proportionate responses and effective deterrence is becoming increasingly unclear. The recent attack on the airbase highlights concerns about its vulnerability to drone penetration. There is also an underlying question of whether the recent US air strikes, denounced by Iraq as a hostile act, have effectively deterred future attacks.
Retired US Army Major Mike Lyons stated, "I believe we are playing a game of whack-a-mole and need to target these troop formations and leadership. I don't think our deterrence has convinced the Iranians that we are serious about this."
Economic as well as military reverberations
The critical importance of the Red Sea to global supply chain routes for energy and goods means that an escalated conflict could result in painful economic consequences. Bordered by Yemen and Saudi Arabia to the east, and Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt to the west, the waterway feeds into the Suez Canal at the Sinai Peninsula, which belongs to Egypt and borders Israel. The potential for disruption in the canal, as demonstrated by a ship getting stuck across its breadth in 2021, has caused global reverberations. This has led to several shipping firms ordering their captains to take the more expensive and time-consuming route around Africa, due to the threat to their vessels and crews from drones and missiles. The United States is taking action to address this potential economic disruption by forming an international coalition to protect merchant ships from Houthi attacks. This coalition already includes signatories such as the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and the Seychelles.
Over the past month, the Houthis have carried out more than 100 attacks on 12 different commercial and merchant vessels in the Red Sea, marking a significant escalation in violence not seen in decades, according to a senior US military official. The potential for military action in the Middle East comes at a difficult time for President Biden, who is focused on aiding Ukraine against Russia and is grappling with low approval ratings. Concerns about his ability to handle international challenges and concerns about his age could impact his reelection prospects. Republicans are working to strengthen these negative perceptions in the eyes of the public.
Former President Donald Trump's tenure was marked by internal and external chaos and division, alienating the US from its allies. Despite this, he is painting a global picture of disarray and disrespect for the United States as he markets his vision of strongman leadership. As the 77-year-old presents himself as the GOP front-runner, Biden has limited flexibility to respond to the situation if it worsens.
This delicate political reality set the stage for recent discussions between the Israeli government and the Biden administration on Tuesday. The talks followed intense fighting between Israeli troops and Hamas forces in Gaza, following US calls for a de-escalation. One of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's top advisors, Ron Dermer, met with officials in the White House and State Department. Netanyahu, who visited troops in Gaza, warned of a prolonged conflict. Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that his country was involved in a "multi-arena war," with attacks coming from seven sectors, including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran.
That is a scenario that the United States, and Biden especially, cannot allow to become a long-term reality.
