Escalating Tensions in the Middle East: The Unprecedented US Campaign to Prevent an Imminent Widespread Conflict

US leaders are urgently working to prevent the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza from escalating into a larger regional conflict that could lead to a severe geopolitical crisis. As another US aircraft carrier strike group heads to the region, President Joe Biden expressed his support for Israel as it responds to the recent attacks, while also emphasizing the importance of negotiating for a Palestinian state and cautioning against an Israeli occupation of Gaza.

American citizens were left frustrated over the weekend at the Gaza-Egypt Exit, while the Biden administration attempted to alleviate the dire humanitarian conditions faced by Palestinians without foreign passports. Amid relentless Israeli airstrikes, Secretary of State Antony Blinken's Middle East shuttle mission highlights the unique position of the United States to influence Israel and important Arab power brokers. Despite Washington's domestic turmoil, the US remains committed to projecting leadership in the Middle East.

Administration officials, speaking on Sunday, expressed their determination to forge a reshaped Middle East that promotes diplomatic normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, the recent attacks by Hamas has put this vision at risk. The United States faces a daunting task of managing this rapidly escalating crisis while also juggling conflicting objectives. Israel's aim to completely eradicate Hamas could lead to massive destruction and casualties, risking alienation of America's Arab allies.

"We are engaging in discussions with the Israelis regarding a wide range of concerns, with a focus on safeguarding the long-term security and well-being of both Israel and the innocent Palestinians residing in Gaza. Our objective is to establish a future where Israel remains protected and secure, while also ensuring that the Palestinians in Gaza can live a life characterized by dignity, security, and peace. These efforts were emphasized by Jake Sullivan, National Security Adviser to President Biden, during an appearance on CNN's "State of the Union." Sullivan further cautioned that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could potentially unfold into something more extensive, including the possibility of a second front in the north and the involvement of Iran. This warning was conveyed during his interview on CBS."

President Joe Biden speaks Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023, in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, about the war between Israel and the militant Palestinian group Hamas.

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Biden cautions Israel against occupying Gaza as a ground invasion seems imminent. The remarks come as the extent of a devastating humanitarian crisis in densely populated Gaza becomes more apparent. UN officials raise alarm about the nightmarish conditions following over eight days of Israeli airstrikes, resulting in the deaths of over 2,600 Palestinians. These actions were in response to Hamas' brutal hostage-taking and the killing of 1,400 individuals in Israel.

Thousands of Gazans are fleeing from the northern districts following an Israeli evacuation order, leaving behind severe shortages of water, electricity, food, and medicine. The southern border of Gaza with Egypt remains closed, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner general of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, expressed concern over this dire situation, stating that Gaza is on the brink of running out of water and life itself. Meanwhile, Israel argues that it tries to minimize civilian suffering but blames Hamas, an Iran-backed militant group, for endangering civilians by using them as shields. Hamas, in response, urges civilians to disregard Israeli warnings to evacuate the northern part of Gaza.

Blinken makes US strategy clear

Blinken's whirlwind tour encompasses visits to Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, and Bahrain. During his stay in Cairo on Sunday, he emphasized the shared commitment within the region to halt the escalation of Hamas attacks and prevent them from triggering a wider conflict. The State Department announced his plans to return to Israel on Monday for further discussions and consultations.

US President Joe Biden and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

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Israel and US discussing possible Biden visit after Netanyahu extends invitation

Israel has extended an invitation to Biden to visit the country and meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Both parties are currently reviewing the possibility of this visit, as it would involve the president entering a war zone and potentially risking his personal reputation. The United States is in a delicate position, as it emphasizes its unwavering support for Israel's efforts to eliminate Hamas, while also trying to minimize the negative impact on civilians during the upcoming offensive. Simultaneously, it is pursuing its own interests in preventing a situation that could necessitate a return to the Middle East.

Blinken articulated the comprehensive US strategy.

"We have made it abundantly clear that we fully support Israel's security," he stated in Cairo. However, he also cautioned, "The manner in which Israel upholds this security is important. It should be done in a way that upholds our common values of respect for human life and dignity, taking all necessary measures to prevent harm to civilians."

The US diplomat also emphasized the need for caution, stating, "It is important that no actions are taken to worsen the situation elsewhere. This should be clear to everyone." Blinken's efforts on behalf of Palestinian civilians yielded some positive results on Sunday, as he assured the opening of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. The closure of this crossing was due to concerns from Cairo regarding immigration controls on the Gaza side and the safety of aid convoys entering the heavily bombarded area.

Humanitarian supplies urgently needed are piling up at checkpoints on the wrong side of the border. According to Sullivan, Israeli and Egyptian officials consented to evacuate US citizens in Gaza through the Rafah crossing, but Hamas is obstructing the process. Additionally, Sullivan stated that Israel agreed to restore water supplies for Gaza, a concession verified by Israeli officials. However, Gazan officials expressed uncertainty as the necessary electricity to pump water has not been restored.

In an effort to coordinate aid initiatives, Blinken appointed David Satterfield, former US ambassador to Turkey. The new US envoy will be arriving in Israel on Monday.

How the Israel war could blow up into a new Middle East disaster

The concern over the potential escalation arises from the anticipated Israeli ground offensive in Gaza. This initiative runs the risk of intense clashes with Hamas, leading to devastating civilian casualties. Analysts are worried that the sight of innocent bystanders caught in the crossfire may incite violence among Palestinians residing in the West Bank. Moreover, such scenes could potentially encourage Hezbollah, a Lebanese-based Islamist party and militant group - both designated as terrorist organizations by the US - to launch thousands of missiles into Israeli cities, thus opening a second front in the ongoing conflict.

Hezbollah possesses significantly more power than Hamas, and Israel has issued a warning that it would retaliate with a severe counterattack into Lebanon if the group escalates the ongoing border skirmishes. In the event of a joint assault on Israel by Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel may also retaliate against Iran, which would increase the risk of US involvement to protect its ally, Israel. On Saturday, Iran's mission to the United Nations cautioned on social media that if Israel does not cease its strikes on Gaza, the situation could spiral out of control and have far-reaching consequences.

The United States faces the danger of potential reprisals by Iran-backed terror groups and militias against its remaining troops in Iraq and Syria, where they are engaged in operations against ISIS. Additionally, a forceful Israeli offensive on the ground in Gaza would limit the diplomatic options available to key Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt in their efforts to de-escalate the situation. During his meeting with Blinken on Sunday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman specifically called for the immediate lifting of the siege on Gaza and condemned the targeting of civilians, destruction of critical infrastructure, and disruption of essential services.

With his strong backing for Israel and regular personal communication with Netanyahu following the attacks by Hamas, Biden set the groundwork for Israel to defend itself. However, he also created political space for the US to mitigate the severe consequences of what is anticipated to be a brutal Israeli operation in Gaza and to uphold long-term regional peace efforts. Given the complexity of the situation and the trauma caused by the Hamas assault in Israel, it is uncertain if the president's delicate balancing act can be sustained. Nevertheless, he must make an attempt, as a major conflict in the Middle East would further strain US resources while maintaining substantial support for Ukraine and could create an impression of global disorder that could undermine Biden's chances of re-election next year.

During his interview on CBS "60 Minutes" on Sunday, the president stated that the US had the capacity to back both Israel and Ukraine and justified intervention by asserting that "we are the indispensable nation."

"The United States of America, for God's sake, is not only the most powerful nation in the world, but also in the entire history of the world," stated Biden. He emphasized that it is possible for the US to provide assistance to both nations while upholding our overall international defense capabilities. Biden questioned, "If we don't, then who will?"

However, Biden faces obstacles in his attempt to expedite aid to both countries due to the chaos in the House of Representatives. The divided Republican Party's failure to elect a new speaker has left the House paralyzed. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed the urgent need for the US to send the necessary support to Israel for self-defense. Schumer, a Democrat from New York, recounted an incident where he and a delegation, which included Republican Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, had to seek shelter during an air-raid alert in Tel Aviv.

Israel is experiencing a growing sense of fear as Palestinians in Gaza prepare for further attacks, while Israeli reservists are ready to enter the territory. In Washington, the administration plans to give senators a comprehensive briefing on the situation, which remains classified. As the new week begins, there is a strong feeling that the current situation is only going to deteriorate. Aaron David Miller, a seasoned US Middle East peace negotiator, predicts that the Israeli offensive will begin soon and be extremely painful, but he holds out hope for potential diplomatic progress in the future.

He stated that regardless of whether it is within 24 or 48 hours, or by next week, the undeniable truth is that it is imminent. Additionally, he expressed his hope that similar to previous crises in this area that caused significant suffering among civilians, there will be an opportunity to transform this excessive suffering into positive outcomes.