Facing Dwindling Western Support and Putin's Unyielding War Machine, Ukraine's Victory Hopes Diminish
Ukraine's struggle for triumph is challenged by waning Western support and Putin's relentless war machine; as the first anniversary of Russia's invasion approaches, Zelensky's hopeful forecast for victory in 2023 seems unlikely to be repeated for 2024
One year ago, President Volodymyr Zelensky made a determined journey from the battlefield of Bakhmut to address the US Congress and meet with President Joe Biden. He was celebrated as a hero, with Ukraine's resistance to Russian aggression receiving strong bipartisan support in Washington.
However, a year later, the situation appears much more bleak. The long-awaited Ukrainian offensive in the south has seen limited success. Russia seems to have withstood international sanctions and transformed its economy into a war-ready force.
The Russian military's willingness to endure significant casualties and continue to deploy more troops has neutralized the tactical and technological advantage of the Ukrainian military, as acknowledged by its top general in a recent candid essay. The mood in Moscow appears resolutely focused: the objectives of the "special military operation" will be accomplished, and the conflict will persist until they are.
President Joe Biden speaks at the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2023, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
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The Kremlin is detecting increasing doubt among Kyiv's Western supporters about Ukraine's ability to reclaim the 17% of its territory still held by Russian forces, as the prolonged front line continues to harden. Russian President Vladimir Putin is enjoying the more polarized environment in Washington, where many in the Republican Party are questioning the need to provide Ukraine with the $61 billion in aid requested by the Biden administration, believing that it will yield minimal results on the battlefield.
At his inaugural year-end press briefing since the commencement of the conflict, Putin derisively remarked, "Ukraine is currently producing very little, with the majority of goods coming from the West. However, reliance on free resources will eventually diminish, and it appears that this is already happening."
Russia's President Vladimir Putin is relishing the more partisan attitude in Washington.
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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's decision to block a $55 billion EU package of financial aid for Ukraine has been likened to having Putin himself sitting at the table by one German politician. This move puts government spending at risk, affecting important areas such as salaries and hospitals.
Ukrainian President Zelensky, acknowledging his fatigue, faces increasing challenges in his role as Ukraine's primary advocate, as developments in the Middle East draw focus away from Ukraine's status as the top global crisis. On the invasion's first anniversary, he projected a "victory in 2023," but may not express the same level of optimism for the upcoming year.
Russia has its own vulnerabilities, which are more long-term. The conflict has worsened its demographic crisis due to emigration and battlefield losses. In 2022, nearly 750,000 people left Russia and analysts anticipate an even higher number departing this year.
Labor shortages are leading to higher wages and inflation. Furthermore, evading sanctions and sustaining industrial production has resulted in much of the production being used to replace battlefield losses, causing the budget deficit to skyrocket.
The future of the Russian economy looks bleak, which could be Putin's most significant legacy. In the short term, Putin seems untouchable, with his reelection in March seen as a certainty by the Kremlin. This is in stark contrast to the US, where a tumultuous year of campaigning may result in Donald Trump serving a second term. This is a source of concern for Kyiv but a dream come true for Moscow.
Congress's strongly partisan atmosphere has thwarted the Biden administration's plea for additional aid for Kyiv, as the allocated funds for military equipment are running low. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy bluntly stated, "We are about to abandon Ukraine." While the mantra in Western capitals regarding support for Ukraine has been "as long as it takes," President Biden recently stated, while standing next to Zelensky, that the US would support Ukraine "as long as we can."
Battlefield slog
While the global metrics for Ukraine deteriorate, so the frontlines offer little cheer.
The highly anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, launched in June, was intended to showcase the superiority of NATO's combined arms warfare strategy, which had been drilled into newly trained Ukrainian brigades in muddy fields in Germany. However, this approach was unfamiliar to Ukrainian military culture and was not accompanied by air superiority.
Instead of swiftly advancing south to the Black Sea, the operation became entangled in dense minefields, with Western armor being targeted from the air by Russian drones and aviation.
Over the course of six months, Ukrainian units managed to gain control of only 200 square kilometers of territory. The objectives of reaching the coastline, Crimea, and splitting Russian forces in the south still seemed like a far-off aspiration.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is by his own admission tired.
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The intelligence agencies in Kyiv have resorted to more dramatic attacks since the frontlines have ceased activity. This includes sinking a Russian landing ship in Crimea and even sabotaging railway lines in the Russian Far East. Despite these bold actions, the fundamental balance of the conflict will not be altered. Despite this, success in the Black Sea has provided relatively safe passage for merchant ships, despite Moscow abandoning a UN-brokered deal last summer.
Zaluzhnyi was straightforward: "Our current technological advancement has left both sides, us and our enemies, in a state of shock." The deployment of surveillance and attack drones eliminates the element of surprise for both parties on the battlefield.
"The truth is, we have visibility over the enemy's actions, and they have visibility over ours."
With their vast reserves of manpower and hardware, the Russians can continue overpowering the smaller Ukrainian military, resulting in incremental gains at a significant cost. This pattern was observed around Bakhmut last winter and may also apply to the devastated Donetsk town of Avdiivka in the coming weeks.
In this file photo, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny appears on a screen via video link from the IK-2 corrective penal colony in Pokrov during a court hearing to appeal against his prison sentence, in Moscow, Russia on May 17, 2022. The image is captured by REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina/File Photo.
Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters/File
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The pool of potential military recruits in Ukraine has significantly decreased, as battlefield casualties have resulted in the loss of many experienced soldiers and mid-level officers. Zaluzhnyi expressed concern to the Economist in November that there may soon be a shortage of soldiers for combat. While the arrival of F-16 fighter jets in the spring will strengthen the Ukrainian air force and aid in challenging Russian combat planes, it is not a guaranteed solution. While basic training is essential, facing Russian air defenses presents a different challenge altogether.
Even if the US were to provide Ukraine with longer-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), it would still be subject to the same restrictions. (UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles have proven effective in targeting the Russian rear.)
Regardless, the funding paralysis has prevented the flow of US weaponry, and Europe lacks the capacity to bridge the gap.
It is time for a realistic reassessment, according to leading analysts. "Ukraine and the West are heading towards an unsustainable path, marked by a significant mismatch between goals and the resources at hand," stated Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan in Foreign Affairs.
The goal of Ukraine to recover all of its territory is deemed unattainable, with experts bluntly stating that the current situation looks, at best, like a costly deadlock. It is recommended that Ukraine adopts a defensive posture in 2024 to minimize losses and gain Western support by showcasing a practical strategy with achievable goals.
The Russian military has proven to be ineffective in offensive operations, making it even more challenging for them to capture territory. Some view this as rewarding aggression, allowing Russia to pause, regroup, and pose dangerous threats to others in Russia's neighboring countries. It also sends the wrong message about US commitment to allies like Taiwan. Politically, it is not a feasible option in Kyiv.
Ukrainian soldiers fire artillery towards Russian positions to support frontline troops in the direction of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast.
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During Zelensky's visit, President Biden emphasized that "Putin is counting on the United States to not come through for Ukraine. We have to prove him wrong, we have to."
The situation reeked of desperation. According to Haass and Kupchan, Ukraine should prioritize investing its resources in long-term security and prosperity rather than squandering them on the battlefield for minimal benefit. As the conflict approaches its second anniversary and the economy grapples with recovery following a one-third decrease, signs of tension within Ukrainian society become increasingly apparent. The longer millions of Ukrainians reside in other European countries, the less inclined they are to return.
Currently, Zelensky and his close advisors are not displaying any willingness to compromise. Zelensky is adamant about not considering a truce or engaging in negotiations. "For us, it would entail leaving this wound unresolved for the generations to come," he conveyed to TIME in November.
Unless there is an improbable decline in morale on either side, the same towns and villages that were devastated in the past two years will continue to be battlegrounds. Ukraine will have the capability to endure, but victory seems unlikely.
