Exit Polls Show Majority of North Carolina and Virginia GOP Primary Voters Would Support Trump Despite Conviction
Exit polls reveal that a significant percentage of North Carolina GOP primary voters and Virginia GOP primary voters are open to considering Donald Trump as fit for the presidency even if he faces a criminal conviction. Initial results from CNN's exit poll indicate that around two-thirds of North Carolina voters and over half of Virginia voters hold this viewpoint.
Nearly two-thirds of Republican primary voters in North Carolina would consider former President Donald Trump fit for the presidency even if he is convicted of a crime, based on CNN's exit poll results. In Virginia, slightly over half of GOP primary voters share the same sentiment.
In North Carolina, about 40% of primary voters identify with the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement, which is lower than the 46% in Iowa. In Virginia, approximately one-third of GOP primary voters align themselves with MAGA. South Carolina has about 41% of GOP primary voters supporting MAGA, while in New Hampshire, one-third of GOP primary voters feel the same way.
Exit polls offer valuable insights into the demographic profile and political views of primary voters. However, it is important to note that exit polls are estimates and not exact measurements of the electorate. This is especially true for the initial set of exit poll numbers, which have not been adjusted to reflect the final results of the primaries. Nevertheless, they do give us a glimpse into the types of voters who are participating.
In North Carolina, approximately 8 out of 10 voters identify as conservative, with about 4 out of 10 considering themselves very conservative. In Virginia, around two-thirds of voters label themselves as conservative, with about 3 out of 10 identifying as very conservative.
In South Carolina, the primary electorate falls between Iowa and New Hampshire in terms of conservatism. About 40% of voters in South Carolina identified as very conservative, compared to about half in Iowa and one quarter in New Hampshire.
Early exit polls show that a majority of voters in North Carolina and Virginia had already chosen their preferred presidential candidate. In Virginia, roughly two-thirds of Republican primary voters decided before the start of the year, while only about 15% made their decision in the final week. In North Carolina, about half of GOP primary voters made up their minds before 2024, with around one-fifth deciding in the final week.
The exit polls for the Republican presidential primaries in North Carolina, Virginia, and California, as well as California's US Senate primary, were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In North Carolina, the Republican primary poll consisted of 1,484 interviews with voters at 19 early in-person voting sites and 30 polling places on Election Day, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample.
For Virginia, the Republican primary poll involved 1,196 interviews with voters at 30 polling places on Election Day, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for the full sample. In California, the Republican primary poll included 585 interviews conducted before Election Day from February 25 to March 3, using various methods like telephone, email, and text messaging to reach respondents selected from the voter file. The margin of error for the full sample was plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
Furthermore, the California Senate primary poll comprised 1,408 interviews conducted before Election Day from February 25 to March 3, utilizing telephone, email, and text messaging to reach respondents selected from the voter file. The margin of error for the full sample was plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.
This story has been updated with additional information.
Editor's P/S:
The exit poll results from the Republican presidential primaries reveal a concerning trend among voters. Despite the potential for former President Trump to face criminal charges, a significant number of Republican voters in North Carolina and Virginia believe he would still be fit for the presidency. This unwavering support for Trump, even in the face of potential legal consequences, highlights the deep polarization within the Republican Party and raises questions about the future of American democracy.
The exit polls also provide insights into the demographic and political views of Republican primary voters. The high proportion of conservative voters, particularly in North Carolina and Virginia, underscores the conservative lean of the Republican Party. Additionally, the fact that a majority of voters in these states had already decided on their preferred candidate before the start of the year suggests that the primaries may have had limited impact on shaping the eventual outcome.
