Europe's Populist Predicament: A Dutch Take on the Trump Moment
The unexpected election outcome in the Netherlands reveals Europe's persistent populist challenge, leaving observers uncertain about the future
The surprising election results in the Netherlands have caught Europe off guard, leaving many uncertain about what will happen next. Far-right populist Geert Wilders and his Freedom Party (PVV) are now attempting to create a government following an unexpected victory in the national vote on Wednesday.
"I believe this could be the Dutch equivalent of the Trump moment. The events and political shifts that followed (Donald) Trump's election, this could be comparable," Catherine de Vries, a political science professor at Italy's Bocconi University, commented to CNN.
Although Wilders and the PVV may have secured the most seats (a predicted 37 out of a total of 150), it remains uncertain whether they have sufficient backing to establish a coalition government.
While the election results favored right-leaning parties, Wilders' extreme views on Islam, immigration, the European Union, and skepticism towards Ukraine were considered unacceptable by the center-right Freedom and Democracy Party (VVD) led by outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
One possible path to power for Wilders is forming a coalition with the VVD, which received 24 seats, and the Christian conservative New Social Contract, which secured 20 seats, as per a provisional forecast based on 98% of the votes counted. The joint Labour/Green ticket came in second with 25 seats in the election.
The potential coalition government's composition remains uncertain. It would be highly unusual for the winning party to be excluded from power. There is a possibility that Wilders may accept a non-leadership role in the government, but this would likely require significant compromises on his policy agenda. Additionally, Wilders' victory raises questions about the future of Dutch and European politics.
The emergence of European populism is not a recent phenomenon. Italy is now governed by its most right-wing administration since the conclusion of the Second World War, while Slovakia recently re-elected left-wing populist Robert Fico as its leader in September.
Italy's Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, and Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama held a joint news conference in Rome on November 6 to announce the signing of an agreement on migration.
(Photo by Tiziana Fabi/AFP/Getty Images)
The EU is adept at managing leaders of this nature, often mitigating their influence by offering financial incentives or support for domestic policies like border control. Yet, accommodating them can also pose challenges.
The EU typically makes decisions through unanimous votes, giving each member state veto power. This allows countries to block the entire EU budget, exceeding a trillion euros, over purely domestic issues. Additionally, having multiple troublemakers in the club can lead to them teaming up in both the Council and the European Parliament. In the Council, comprised of ministers and leaders from national governments, and in the European Parliament, right and left parties from different countries can form alliances.
The political right has significantly increased its influence in Brussels in recent years, making leaving the EU less concerning. Euroskeptics now aim to control, not exit, the EU due to its economic benefits and potential for global influence.
Several other leaders who are skeptical of the European Union have swiftly and eagerly congratulated Wilders.
"The winds of change have arrived! Congratulations to Geert Wilders on his victory in the Dutch elections," stated Hungarian PM Viktor Orban on Wednesday.
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen stated, "
It is because there are people who refuse to see the national torch extinguished that the hope for change remains alive in Europe."
Wilders (center) casts his vote in the Dutch general election on Wednesday.
Carl Court/Getty Images
While Wilders may not be able to enact the extreme aspects of his manifesto and is constrained by Europe as a whole, there are lingering worries about the impact of his success on the wider European political landscape. Populist wins tend to pull other parties towards the right.
This is evident in France, where President Emmanuel Macron has adopted anti-Islam language to prevent being overshadowed by Le Pen, and in the United Kingdom, where the center-right Conservative Party has been significantly transformed after 13 years in government and the effects of Brexit.
Wilders may be shut out of government or choose to become a martyr rather than compromise his beliefs. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was initially feared to be a radical right-wing figure, has been somewhat restrained by the EU since taking office in 2022, leading some to view her as a sellout.
It is often those who are not in office that have the most significant impact on politics, such as Nigel Farage, who played a crucial role in pulling the British Conservatives to the right and leading the UK out of the EU, despite never holding a parliamentary or governmental position. He continues to pose a threat to the anti-immigration vote.
During this year's annual Conservative Party conference, Farage received a hero's welcome from several delegates, despite being considered a major threat to the party.
The outcome of the coalition talks in the Netherlands and the potential makeup of the next Dutch government are highly uncertain. The election results have come as a shock to many Europeans, marking a new and uncharted territory.
