Europe Turns to Donald Tusk as a Model for Beating Populists in Poland
Donald Tusk emerges victorious, shifting the balance of power in Poland's political landscape His progressive vision to undo PiS reforms gains momentum, supported by a strong and outspoken opposition
In Poland's 21st-century history, a fierce competition between two figures has heavily influenced its trajectory. This week marked another significant shift in power dynamics between them.
Donald Tusk, a prominent figure in European politics, had previously led the country towards a more Western-oriented direction during his tenure as prime minister from 2007 to 2014. Now, he has made a remarkable comeback to leadership, being sworn in once again as the country's leader on Wednesday.
After defeating Law and Justice (PiS), led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who had reversed much of Tusk's progress in the past eight years, Poland's reputation as a troublemaker in Europe had suffered as the country underwent an authoritarian transformation. Although PiS narrowly won the most seats in the October vote, they were unable to secure a parliamentary majority, allowing a Tusk-led coalition to remove the party from power.
However, the transition back to Tusk's leadership was not without challenges. He waited for two months as PiS unsuccessfully tried to form a coalition. After receiving parliamentary approval to become the prime minister, Tusk took to the stage on Monday and expressed gratitude to those who believed in "this new, wonderful Poland" and contributed to this historic change.
The atmosphere of celebration was disrupted, however, when Kaczynski angrily approached the parliamentary podium and accused Tusk of being a German agent, continuing his months-long campaign to portray his opponent as a puppet of the EU. This served as a reminder that steering the EU's fifth-largest nation away from its populist path will be a difficult task.
Tusk was forced to wait two months to become prime minister, as PiS sought in vain to find a coalition partner.
Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations' Warsaw office, told CNN, "There will be numerous blockades and obstacles on the path to establishing a fully functioning, rule of law-based system."
If Tusk succeeds in "dePiSifying" Poland, he will set a precedent for Europe in tackling the lingering impact of populist leadership. The anticipation is already noticeable; Tusk's visits to Brussels as Poland's future leader have been filled with a sense of celebration, and he was recently dubbed "The Most Powerful Person in Europe" by the media company Politico.
"He is seen as a beacon of hope for Europe, demonstrating that it is possible to triumph over populism," remarked Buras.
"In the present political climate, this is an incredibly powerful message - one of the few positive messages to have emerged from the European capitals in recent years."
A bold agenda to roll back PiS reforms
Tusks comeback to national politics was met with a sense of relief in certain circles and with disbelief and skepticism in others, according to Jacek Kucharczyk, the president of the Warsaw-based Institute of Public Affairs think tank.
"People doubted his ability to find the energy to bring about change. However, Tusk managed to bring together a diverse opposition coalition and led what he described as a fight for Poland's soul - a message that aligned with US President Joe Biden's efforts to combat another influential figure named Donald."
Buras also mentioned his "personal ambition," stating that the rivalry with Kaczynski has been ongoing for a long time. He aimed to prove to Kaczynski that he is the only politician capable of defeating him. Tusk may have won the latest battle, but Kaczynski's party is preparing for a war over the future of the Polish state. The divisive reforms to Poland's judiciary, public media, state-run companies, and cultural institutions, as well as the crackdown on rights for women and LGBTQ+ people, are deeply entrenched after eight years, making it a challenging task to reverse them all. It will require money, energy, and astute political maneuvering to undo these changes.
Rob Picheta
Poland's toxic political divide is tearing families apart, as each side lives in separate worlds. Tusk is committed to reversing the changes to the country's reproductive rights policy, which effectively banned all abortions. He also seeks to advocate for civil partnerships for same-sex couples and aims to persuade conservative coalition members to support these reforms.
However, other aspects of his agenda will present significant challenges. "PiS has extensive influence in Poland's institutions," Buras explained. Legal and political experts have consistently criticized many of the party's reforms as unconstitutional, but a large part of the program has become entrenched in Polish law and has been supported by the courts, so Tusk "will face a difficult task," he said, adding: "How can he restore a system based on the rule of law without infringing upon the principles of the rule of law?"
Tusk will also need to navigate the PiS-aligned Polish president Andrzej Duda, whose nominally symbolic role is expected to pose a major obstacle for the new government.
Duda, who is facing a challenging re-election campaign in early 2025, holds the power of veto and will likely be urged by his party to block any achievements made by Tusk. "He is expected to resist any legislative changes," Kucharczyk anticipated.
The next significant challenge for Tusks will be navigating the courts, where PiS has made significant changes to the system to gain more control over the appointment and dismissal of judges.
New judges, referred to as "neo-judges," have been appointed with the increased involvement of the National Council of the Judiciary, a move that has sparked criticism from the EU. Despite this, these judges continue to preside over the country's highest courts.
"The changes were made in violation of the constitution, and (Tusks) ruling coalition lacks the necessary majority to amend it," explained Jaroslaw Gwizdak, a former court president who resigned in protest of PiS' alterations to the judiciary.
PiS has consistently justified its judicial reform as an essential step to eliminate the lasting influence of communism in Poland's courts. However, Gwizdak informed CNN that PiS had been concentrating for years on assembling a "militant" group of supporters within the judiciary and the prosecutor's office, a situation that will be challenging to unravel.
After years during which Warsaw increasingly became seen as a troublemaker in Europe, Tusk has promised to take a leading role in the EU.
Rob Picheta
A vocal opposition
The October election in Europe brought a sense of rare joy, as Tusk's victory promised to bring a new era of cooperation between Poland and the EU. Additionally, it could lead to a shift in power towards the east from Paris and Berlin.
Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at the Eurasia Group, informed CNN that Tusk has ambitious plans for Europe. Among his counterparts, Tusk stands out for his significant mandate, strong agency, and pro-European vision that he aims to advance.
In his promise on Monday, Tusk declared that "Poland will reclaim its role as a leader in the European Union" under his leadership. He is tasked with securing the release of billions in funding that Brussels had withheld due to Poland's legal system reforms.
Warsaw is expected to maintain its important role as a supporter of Ukrainian aid, a priority that Tusk emphasized in his first speech on Monday. This will position Warsaw as a critical ally of the Biden administration, which is working to secure continued funding for Ukraine domestically and persuade European countries to uphold their commitments.
In contrast, Tusk's positive stance towards Brussels will further alienate Hungary, an authoritarian member with whom PiS had previously aligned in disputes with EU leadership.
But how much scope Tusk has to play statesman could be dictated by events at home.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of PiS, has been Tusk's political rival for twenty years. His party is anticipated to vehemently oppose Tusk as the new prime minister works to accomplish his goals.
He will encounter strong resistance from PiS, a party that will continue to hold significant influence in politics, due to his perceived loyalty to Europe - a major point of contention that has persisted since the election. PiS is the dominant party in Poland's parliament, and its nationalist stance, which advocates for Catholicism, Polish customs, and sovereignty, continues to shape the country's media landscape.
Buras anticipated, "The opposition will be formidable," suggesting that PiS and the far-right Confederation "will vie with each other in their anti-European rhetoric."
The former government's panel on Russian influence, which was criticized as being created solely to criticize Tusk's previous premiership during the campaign, recommended last month that Tusk be barred from office, PAP reported. This conclusion, widely anticipated and generally ignored, suggests that Tusk will struggle to win the public narrative if he cannot reverse the transformations PiS made to state-owned media, regardless of his achievements.
State-run networks such as TVP have functioned as a government mouthpiece in recent years, following in the footsteps of Hungary and Russia, where the achievements of the ruling party are constantly praised. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which observed the election, stated that TVP's biased and openly partisan coverage favored PiS during the October election.
During his campaign, Tusk promised to overhaul public television in just "24 hours," a promise that may prove to be overly ambitious. In truth, reversing the conservative and nationalistic influence on Poland's airwaves will require considerable time and effort. Tusk will need to confront the PiS-controlled National Media Council, which was tasked with overseeing Poland's media sector by the previous government.
"Tusk is an incredibly ambitious politician," Buras remarked, noting that few political agendas in the coming year will be as intricate as his. However, Buras stated that when deciding to re-enter Polish politics, Tusk had "good reason to believe that he is the one who can save his own party and Polish democracy."
"The jury is still out on how he manages to do that; there are lots of pitfalls and problems ahead of him."
