Comparing Rep Lauren Boebert's Old and New Districts: A Visual Analysis
Rep Lauren Boebert's new district: A shift to a Whiter, wealthier, and more Republican constituency might secure her re-election to Congress for another term
US Rep. Lauren Boebert's decision to switch congressional districts less than a year before the 2024 election may be the key to securing her political future. By vying for a seat in a Whiter, wealthier, and more Republican district, she is creating conditions that could potentially extend her time in Congress as a staunch conservative. Rather than seeking reelection in the 3rd District where she currently resides, Boebert has set her sights on the 4th District, which is on the other side of the state. This move allows her to avoid a potentially challenging rematch with Democrat Adam Frisch, who out-fundraised her in the past, and places her in a district with more favorable demographics and political leanings for her election.
More details on the comparison between the two districts.
Transitioning from her current moderate district to the new one is an appealing move for someone like Boebert. She has aligned herself with the Donald Trump faction of the party and opposed Rep. Kevin McCarthy's election as Speaker when the Republicans gained control of the House in 2023.
The 4th District has a higher proportion of Republican voters and a 9.1% larger share of White residents compared to the 3rd District, according to the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission. Anchored in Douglas County and including the rural Eastern Plains, the 4th District is also wealthier than Boebert's former district and any other district in the state. Only 4% of families in District 4 reported incomes below the poverty level, in contrast to 8.8% of families in District 3, according to the Census Bureau.
Boebert narrowly defeated Frisch in the 2022 midterms with only 546 votes in the most closely contested GOP House race of the year. Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Ken Buck, whose soon-to-be vacated seat Boebert is eyeing in the 4th District, secured victory over his Democratic opponent by more than 86,000 votes, or 24.3 percentage points.
Despite running in the most conservative district in the state, Boebert is not guaranteed a win. The controversial conservative has faced several scandals during her time in office, including her association with the QAnon conspiracy movement and her anti-Muslim comments against fellow Rep. Ilhan Omar. Boebert will be competing in a crowded Republican primary field in the 4th District, which includes a talk radio host and a member of the state legislature.
