Climate Change Forecast: Brace for Even Worse Air Turbulence
Prepare for heightened air turbulence as climate change exacerbates the risks in the skies. Severe turbulence poses threats to both passengers and aircraft, with experts warning of increased dangers ahead.
Traveling can sometimes be a bumpy experience, especially when your plane encounters turbulence caused by conflicting air movements.
Even the most experienced travelers can feel uneasy during severe turbulence, making a short five-minute turbulence feel like an eternity. While most of the time it just results in a rough ride, in extreme cases, it can lead to damage, injuries, and unfortunately, even fatalities like the tragic incident on Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 on May 21.
Turbulence is the primary cause of injuries in nonfatal accidents for both flight attendants and passengers, as reported by the Federal Aviation Administration. It is also one of the most common types of airline accidents today, according to the US National Transportation Safety Board. These incidents cost US airlines up to $500 million annually due to injuries, delays, and damages, according to the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
According to Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the UK, there is a scale for measuring the strength of turbulence. Light turbulence involves a slight strain against your seat belt, but allows for food service to continue and for passengers to move around the cabin, albeit with some difficulty.
Moderate turbulence can be challenging, with a noticeable pull against seat belts and the possibility of unsecured items becoming dislodged. It can also make walking around the cabin difficult, prompting flight attendants to take their seats.
Severe turbulence is the most intense type, surpassing the force of gravity. It has the power to press you against your seat, and if you're not buckled up, you could be thrown around inside the plane. This level of turbulence is known to cause severe injuries, such as broken bones.
Singapore Airlines planes on the tarmac on 5 December 2020. (Singapore Press via AP Images)
Singapore Airlines planes on the tarmac on 5 December 2020. (Singapore Press via AP Images)
Kevin Lim/AP
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Strikes fast and no visual clues
About 65,000 aircraft experience moderate turbulence annually in the US, with around 5,500 encountering severe turbulence. However, these figures may increase in the future. Williams began researching the impact of climate change on turbulence in 2013. According to him, computer simulations suggest that severe turbulence could double or triple in the upcoming years.
The research findings, later supported by real-life observations, shed light on a specific type of turbulence known as "clear air turbulence." Unlike typical turbulence, this type occurs without any visual warnings like storms or clouds and can strike suddenly, making it difficult for pilots to avoid.
According to the NTSB, in about 28% of turbulence-related accidents between 2009 and 2018, the flight crew did not receive any warning.
However, this does not necessarily mean that flying will become less safe. Williams explains that even though clear-air turbulence is predicted to increase significantly by 2050-2080, especially along busy flight routes, planes are constructed to withstand the most severe turbulence they may encounter in the future. This means that aircraft are built to very high standards and will not suddenly start falling out of the sky.
However, passengers should be prepared for longer periods of turbulence in the future. On a transatlantic flight, the average duration of turbulence might increase from 10 minutes to 20 minutes or even half an hour. This means that the seat belt sign will likely be switched on more frequently, which may not be the most pleasant experience for passengers.
TOPSHOT - Officials look at the burnt wreckage of a Japan Airlines (JAL) passenger plane on the tarmac at Tokyo International Airport at Haneda in Tokyo on January 3, 2024, the morning after the JAL airliner hit a smaller coast guard plane on the ground. Five people aboard a Japan coast guard aircraft died on January 2 when it hit a Japan Airlines passenger plane on the ground in a fiery collision at Tokyo's Haneda airport. (Photo by Richard A. Brooks / AFP) (Photo by RICHARD A. BROOKS/AFP via Getty Images)
Officials are examining the burnt wreckage of a Japan Airlines passenger plane at Tokyo International Airport at Haneda in Tokyo. The incident occurred the morning after the JAL airliner collided with a smaller coast guard plane on the tarmac. Five people aboard a Japan coast guard aircraft lost their lives on January 2 when it hit a Japan Airlines passenger plane on the ground in a fiery collision at Tokyo's Haneda airport. Photo credit: Richard A. Brooks/AFP/Getty Images
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The seat belt sign is now switched on
Keeping your seat belt fastened at all times while seated is the best way to minimize the risk of injury due to turbulence.
Flight attendants face a higher risk of getting injured during turbulence compared to passengers, accounting for about 80% of all turbulence-related injuries. Sara Nelson, a United flight attendant and president of the Association of Flight Attendants, shared that the nature of their work, such as pushing heavy carts, puts them at a greater risk even when warnings are given.
Nelson also mentioned incidents where flight attendants were thrown into the ceiling and back down, resulting in broken limbs. Some have even lost toes or the ability to work due to injuries sustained during unanticipated turbulence in the aisle. These injuries can be severe and keep them off work for extended periods of time.
The aviation industry is taking the climate crisis seriously, but the transition to sustainable fuel needs to speed up. Some regulations, like allowing children under two to fly on their parents' lap, should change.
"Our union has been pushing for a seat for every person on board," says Nelson. "Flying with a child on a lap is unsafe as they can be thrown around the cabin and hurt others. Just like in a car, a child needs a properly installed car seat for safety. The same standards should apply when flying."
Close up portrait of young beautiful flight attendant holding life jacket in hands while demonstrating how using it
Close up portrait of young beautiful flight attendant holding life jacket in hands while demonstrating how using it
Svitlana Hulko/iStockphoto/Getty Images
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Calls for stringent new rules
The NTSB conducted a public meeting in 2021 to discuss turbulence. During the meeting, they suggested stricter rules for fastening seat belts for passengers and flight attendants when flying near thunderstorms and below 20,000 feet. This is because most injuries happen in these conditions. The NTSB also recommended improving the collection and sharing of turbulence reports, as the current system is not efficient enough.
Nelson believes that while the effects of climate change on turbulence may take years to fully manifest, there are already signs of worsening conditions.
She mentions that since Hurricane Katrina, there has been an increase in unexpected turbulence during flights. Her most frightening experience with turbulence happened on a flight to Dallas, which had to be diverted.
"When anything happens on the plane, the passengers look to us, to see if we look concerned," she mentions. "I was flying with a close friend of mine and we were seated on the jump seats, facing the back of the aircraft – with a lavatory in front of us instead of passengers.
"We were holding onto each other tightly as we were jolted around in our seats so vigorously that it felt like our brains were being scrambled. It lasted for quite a while, but thankfully we landed safely," she recalls.
I usually don't get scared of turbulence because we are trained on how to handle it and keep ourselves safe. However, there are rare instances when turbulence can be really intense and last a long time. During one such scary experience, even though I knew what to do, my friend and I found ourselves praying and I have to admit, I was truly scared for my life.
This story was first shared in September 2022 and has been revised and reissued in May 2024.
Editor's P/S:
The article delves into the topic of turbulence in air travel, highlighting its potential risks and the measures taken to mitigate them. The author emphasizes the importance of remaining buckled up during flights, especially in the face of severe turbulence. However, the article also raises concerns about the potential increase in turbulence due to climate change, particularly the rise of clear air turbulence, which can occur without visual warnings.
Overall, the article provides valuable insights into the nature of turbulence, its impact on passengers and flight attendants, and the ongoing efforts to enhance safety measures. It also underscores the need for continued research and collaboration within the aviation industry to address the challenges posed by the changing climate and ensure the safety of air travel in the future.
