Unprecedented Surge in Libyan Flooding Traced to Alarming Rise in Climate-Altering Pollution, Shocking Scientists

The recent catastrophic flooding and destruction in Libya, along with other Mediterranean regions, were significantly intensified by the human-caused climate crisis, in addition to other human factors. A recent scientific analysis conducted by the World Weather Attribution initiative, a group of scientists specializing in assessing the influence of climate change on extreme weather events, revealed that planet-warming pollution increased the likelihood of the deadly rainfall in Libya by up to 50 times and worsened it by 50%. Moreover, the analysis indicated that the extreme rainfall that affected Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria was made up to 10 times more probable due to the same factors.

The analysis published Tuesday revealed that the destruction caused by the rainfall was exacerbated by various factors such as insufficient infrastructure and construction in flood-prone regions. Since the beginning of the month, the Mediterranean region has experienced widespread heavy rainfall.

On September 3, torrential downpours drenched Spain within a few hours, resulting in fatal floods that claimed the lives of at least six individuals. Subsequently, Storm Daniel materialized, unleashing a barrage of relentless rainfall for four consecutive days across Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria.

A man carries a girl and a dog in the flooded village of Palamas near the city of Karditsa, central Greece, on September 8, 2023.

Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images

A collapsed bridge near the Pinios River Delta on the coast of Larissa, Greece, ten days after Storm Daniel, on September 14, 2023.

Seventeen people lost their lives in Greece, while vast areas of farmland in the central region were submerged, resulting in extensive damage that experts estimate could require several years to fully restore. Storm Daniel also claimed the lives of seven individuals in Turkey and four in Bulgaria.

The impacts in Libya, however, were the most catastrophic. Storm Daniel, fueled by the unusually warm Mediterranean waters, caused torrential rainfall in northeastern parts of the country. This led to the devastating collapse of two dams and unleashed a massive 7-meter (23-foot) wave on the city of Derna, washing away people and buildings into the sea.

Official estimates indicate that approximately 4,000 individuals lost their lives, with over 10,000 individuals still unaccounted for. In order to ascertain the influence of climate change on the probability and magnitude of such torrential downpours, scientists from the WWA conducted an analysis of climate data and climate models. These models enabled them to compare our current climate, which is roughly 1.2 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial levels, to a hypothetical world unaffected by climate change.

In Libya, not only did climate change increase the likelihood of extreme rainfall by up to 50 times, but it also intensified it by up to 50%. The report reveals that an event of this magnitude is rare even in today's warmer climate, occurring approximately once every 600 years.

Destroyed houses in the city of Derna on September 16, 2023, after a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Libya.

Zohra Bensemra/Reuters

A car is submerged in mud in Derna, Libya, on September 16, 2023

Zohra Bensemra/Reuters

Climate change has significantly increased the probability and intensity of rainfall in Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria. According to the analysis, these countries have witnessed rainfall that is up to 10 times more frequent and 40% heavier as a result of climate change. The report states that the occurrence of such extreme rainfall events in this region is likely to happen approximately once every decade. However, central Greece, which suffered the most severe devastation among the three nations, is projected to experience such events only once every 80 to 250 years.

The findings still hold uncertainties, according to the WWA scientists. The authors of the report stated that it is impossible to completely dismiss the possibility that the floods were unaffected by the climate crisis. However, they also emphasized that there are "multiple reasons we can be confident that climate change did make the events more likely."

On Tuesday, September 12, 2023, a panoramic glimpse of Derna, a city in Libya, reveals the aftermath of the destructive floods caused by Mediterranean storm Daniel. The floods resulted in the collapse of dams and the obliteration of entire neighborhoods in various coastal towns. Among the affected areas, the city of Derna bore the brunt of the devastation. (Image credit: Jamal Alkomaty/AP)

Ten countries and territories experienced devastating floods within a 12-day timeframe. Could this be an indication of what lies ahead due to climate change?

Extensive scientific research has consistently connected climate change to heightened precipitation. Various studies have concluded that with each 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature, the atmosphere has the capacity to retain approximately 7% additional moisture.

The analysis revealed that what brought together several of the places was the intersection of the climate crisis and extensive susceptibility, according to the report's findings. In flood-prone regions of central Greece, numerous communities reside. In Libya, a dangerous combination of deteriorating infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, insufficient warnings, and significant political divisions transformed a crisis into a severe humanitarian disaster.

During a conference call with reporters, Maja Vahlberg, one of the authors of the report from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, emphasized the connection between climate change and human influences, highlighting how they can compound and amplify the impacts observed in these events.

Steps can be taken to mitigate the risk, according to the report, including better early warning systems and evacuation plans.

A satellite image shows the town of Derna in the aftermath of the floods in eastern Libya on Wednesday.

Maxar Technologies/Reuters

In a statement, Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London's Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, emphasized the importance of reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience to all forms of extreme weather in order to save lives.

Karsten Haustein, a climate researcher at Leipzig University in Germany, who was not part of the study, expressed that the findings demonstrate the uncommonness of these exceptionally intense rainfall occurrences in a pre-climate change era. He described it as a significant outcome.

Jasper Knight, a geoscientist at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, who was not involved in the study, emphasized that the findings highlight the impact of climate change on extreme events in the Mediterranean, a region that often goes overlooked. However, Knight stressed the need for further comprehensive analysis using extensive and precise data.