China's Support for Putin's Extended Reign: Implications for Global Dynamics

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Leaders in the West were once again reminded of Vladimir Putin's firm grip on Russia's political landscape as he secured a landslide victory in an election lacking genuine opposition, all while continuing his military actions in Ukraine.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping, along with other leaders who support Putin's defiance of a Western-dominated world order, will be celebrating his win.

The initial results released by Russia's election authority on Sunday night showed a clear and expected victory for Putin in the carefully orchestrated three-day election, where the outcome was already known.

Xi has invested heavily in his relationship with Putin since the beginning of the Kremlin's war over two years ago. He has stood by the "no limits" partnership he declared with the Russian leader before the invasion, while also strengthening trade, security, and diplomatic ties.

China's support for Russia has come at a cost. Despite claiming neutrality, China's decision not to condemn the invasion, unlike the US and its allies who imposed sanctions on Russia, raised suspicions in Europe about its true intentions. This stance also brought attention to China's interest in Taiwan. A recent NATO report showed a tougher stance on China, with Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stating that Beijing does not share the same values and poses challenges to NATO's interests, while also highlighting its growing alignment with Moscow.

China's support has allowed Xi to concentrate on larger objectives. He views Putin as a vital ally amidst growing tensions with the US and in reshaping a world where he believes rules and values are unfairly determined by Washington and its allies. A strong relationship with Moscow also enables Beijing to address other pressing issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

According to Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London, Xi regards Putin as a significant strategic partner. Tsang mentioned that Beijing would be displeased if Putin did not secure a landslide victory in the Russian election.

Xi, who has more control over his country than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, will have company in supporting Putin’s continued leadership. Kim Jong Un recently visited Putin in Russia, with their meeting reportedly centered on potential weapons deals.

Kim sees the growing bond as a chance to boost his economy while advancing weapons development amidst closer ties between the US and South Korea.

Iran, facing sanctions, benefits from its collaboration with Russia, supplying drones and ammunition, and hopes for continued support during the Putin era.

India has strengthened ties with the US and advocated for peace in Ukraine, while also benefiting from ongoing exchanges with Russia, particularly through discounted oil purchases.

Meanwhile, governments in the Global South have sought to enhance their partnerships with Russia, despite supporting peace efforts in Ukraine and facing economic repercussions from the conflict.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shakes hands with Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a visit to Vladivostok, Russia last September.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shakes hands with Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu during a visit to Vladivostok, Russia last September.

KCNA/Reuters

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Putin's dominance in the Russian election was undeniable, but his ability to maintain power and avoid defeat in Ukraine was not guaranteed.

Despite his government's insistence on calling it a "special military operation," Putin faced challenges in Ukraine. He encountered resistance from warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led a failed rebellion, and had to navigate through Western sanctions that significantly impacted Russia's economy.

Putin has escalated repression and silenced dissent throughout the country, even targeting prominent critic Alexey Navalny who recently passed away in prison.

Despite facing sanctions and ongoing challenges, Putin is set to continue leading for another six years. While his opponent has not made significant gains, there are indications of weariness, especially from the United States where a new Presidential election in November could change support for Ukraine.

BEIJING, CHINA - OCTOBER 23: Chinese President Xi Jinping waves during the meeting between members of the standing committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee and Chinese and foreign journalists at The Great Hall of People on October 23, 2022 in Beijing, China. China's ruling Communist Party today revealed the new Politburo Standing Committee after its 20th congress. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

Chinese President Xi Jinping waved to the audience during a meeting with members of the standing committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee and Chinese and foreign journalists at The Great Hall of People in Beijing, China on October 23, 2022. The ruling Communist Party of China announced the new Politburo Standing Committee after its 20th congress.

Lintao Zhang/Getty Images

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China has a grand plan to change the world - and other countries are taking notice.

There may still be changes ahead in the conflict. But for nations that have stayed loyal to Putin or steered clear of US-led attempts to isolate him, his victory guarantees the strength of their connections with Russia - and with an emerging alliance of non-Western nations.

Russia will be hosting the annual summit of the BRICS grouping of major developing economies as its chair this year. The group, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa since 2011, expanded earlier this year to include Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Ethiopia, and Egypt.

BRICS is often considered as the developing countries' counterpart to the G7. The upcoming October summit in Kazan, Russia is expected to highlight the distinct differences in the values and priorities of the two groups. In 2014, G7 countries removed Russia from the then G8 following its invasion of Crimea, leading to the cancellation of the planned summit in Sochi that year.

There are various reasons why Putin is viewed differently in some parts of the world compared to the West. Middle powers are rising and challenging US dominance in global affairs, some seek a world order that does not condemn authoritarian regimes, and others prioritize economic development.

Many nations in the Global South feel alienated by the US support for Israel, especially during the recent turmoil in Gaza. China's vocal criticism of the treatment of Palestinians has also struck a chord with many countries in this region.

Putin sees BRICS as part of a rising movement that is surpassing the existing order, especially in terms of economic power.

During his state of the union address at the end of last month, he emphasized that this objective reality is undeniable and will continue to hold true, regardless of future events, even in Ukraine.

He emphasized a perspective that he hopes both allies and adversaries will take into account as he starts his new term: "A strong and independent Russia is essential for a stable global order."

Ukrainian tank-men prepare for combat against Russian forces earlier this month.

Ukrainian tank-men prepare for combat against Russian forces earlier this month.

Jose Colon/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Beijing is keeping a close eye on the situation. Countries connected to Moscow are also monitoring the conflict in Ukraine closely. China, as Russia's strongest strategic ally, is particularly attentive to developments.

Beijing has already seen positive results from the war and is set to benefit further, as long as Russia does not face a major defeat.

In 2023, Chinese buyers purchased a high amount of crude oil from Moscow, leading to record levels. Additionally, exports of goods like cars and household electronics to Russia increased after the invasion, resulting in a boost in trade to an all-time high and a rise in Chinese yuan transactions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with his confidants for the 2024 election at Gostiny Dvor in Moscow, Russia January 31, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with his confidants for the 2024 election at Gostiny Dvor in Moscow, Russia January 31, 2024. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

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Putin has stated that he is prepared to utilize nuclear weapons if the Russian state is in jeopardy, although he also mentioned that such a situation has never arisen.

Xi has taken advantage of the conflict in Ukraine to present his own, albeit unclear, idea for a different global security system. Meanwhile, the weakened focus of the US government is seen as advantageous for China.

Beijing is actively working to end the conflict and is striving to be seen as a peacemaker. Special envoy Li Hui has been sent on two tours to Russia, Ukraine, and other parts of Europe to promote a negotiated resolution, with the latest tour concluding last week.

Chinese foreign policy experts, like Wang Yiwei from Renmin University, are worried about the risk of nuclear escalation, a concern that was recently reiterated by Putin. There is also a fear that more European countries could become directly involved in the conflict. Wang Yiwei stated, "Li Hui's main focus this time is on preventing the conflict from escalating."

Li, a former ambassador to Russia, and other Chinese officials are often viewed in Europe as promoting a plan that would benefit Putin. This aligns with the European perception of Beijing's stance since the beginning of the war, where they emphasized the need to address all sides' "legitimate security concerns."

As global pressure mounts to end the conflict, the outcomes of the recent elections are expected to reinforce Beijing's belief, along with some other non-Western capitals, that supporting Putin was the right decision.

Editor's P/S:

The article highlights the global implications of Russia's election and the ongoing war in Ukraine. It examines the support for Russian President Vladimir Putin from Chinese leader Xi Jinping and other nations, as well as the challenges he faces. The article also discusses the growing alignment between Russia and China, and the concerns raised by the West about their partnership.

The article also explores the reasons why Putin is viewed differently in some parts of the world compared to the West, and the role of the BRICS grouping of major developing economies. It notes that Beijing has benefited from the war and is actively working to end the conflict. The article concludes that the outcomes of the recent elections are expected to reinforce Beijing's belief that supporting Putin was the right decision.