Building bridges, fostering cooperation: Xi's objectives during Californian visit

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CNN reports that Xi Jinping will embark on his first visit to the US in six years. The highly anticipated summit with US President Joe Biden is expected to focus on bolstering China's troubled economy and countering perceived US efforts to suppress it.

The fact that Xi is visiting California for a four-day trip, which also includes his participation at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation international forum, is noteworthy. The leaders of the two largest economies in the world have not had any communication since their last encounter at a different global event in Bali, Indonesia in November 2022.

Their governments have had to navigate several contentious issues in order to organize this meeting, including the handling of an alleged rogue Chinese surveillance balloon, Beijing's targeting of international businesses, and tit-for-tat restrictions on high-tech. However, expectations for significant breakthroughs at this week's meeting are minimal.

Xi is approaching California amidst his efforts to revive a struggling Chinese economy that has not fully recovered since the relaxation of strict pandemic measures. The property market is in crisis, and there is a concerning level of youth unemployment. These economic challenges, coupled with the sudden dismissal of two carefully chosen government officials, have overshadowed the positive image Xi projected when he last met with Biden. At that time, Xi had just solidified his power and embarked on a norm-breaking third term leading China.

Biden, on the other hand, is currently dealing with various international issues, ranging from the Ukrainian war to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Given these challenges, the last thing he desires is another global hotspot involving China, especially as he seeks re-election next year.

According to Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, both countries are currently facing domestic and foreign policy challenges. Therefore, there is less motivation for them to engage in conflicts with one another and a greater incentive for them to stabilize their relationship.

Xis agenda

While contending with domestic challenges, the protected Chinese leader may perceive himself as being in a more advantageous position compared to Biden. Beijing perceives the US as grappling with significant political polarization and experiencing a decline on a global scale.

Analysts say that one notable concern at the forefront of Xi's agenda is the US initiative to broaden supply chains to diminish dependence on Chinese manufacturing, which serves as a crucial economic powerhouse. Additionally, there are efforts to limit China's access to advanced American technology, vital for the development of its high-tech industries and modernization of its military.

US First Lady Melania Trump and US President Donald Trump are seen posing with Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan upon their arrival to the Mar-a-Lago estate in West Palm Beach, Florida on April 6, 2017. (Photo credit: JIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images)

Six years after the cake at Mar-a-Lago, China's Xi is met with a more cautious United States. Beijing views these endeavors - such as imposing limits on the export of advanced chips to China and prohibiting certain US tech investments in the country - as overt moves to stifle its progress, rather than the specific, focused national security measures that the Biden administration contends they are.

Chinese officials have responded by implementing their own regulations on the natural resources utilized in the production of technological goods.

Xi is expected to request guarantees from Biden regarding the United States' stance on Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that China's ruling Communist Party asserts as its own and is determined to reunite with.

The US has intensified its backing for the island in response to growing hostility from China. This matter is becoming increasingly crucial as a presidential election is approaching in January, in which Beijing aims to witness the Democracy Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan, a party opposed to stronger relations with China, lose power.

During his trip to California, Xi will seize the opportunity to present American businesspeople with the notion that China continues to be a land of prospects and is firmly dedicated to the pro-business reforms that have propelled its remarkable growth in the past few decades. While Beijing has not yet confirmed his attendance, Xi is anticipated to emphasize this message during a dinner speech to American industry leaders this week.

Business confidence in China has plummeted in recent years due to stringent pandemic restrictions and President Xi's heightened state control over the economy. In addition, the already ambiguous and far-reaching anti-espionage law has been expanded, raising further concerns for Western companies about the potential risks associated with conducting business in China.

Harry Moyer, a 103-year-old US Flying Tigers veteran, visits the Kunming Foreign Language School in China's Yunnan province earlier this month.

Liu Ranyang/China News Service/VCG/Getty Images

Positive signals

The lead-up to Xis American visit has been marked with signals that China is hoping to smooth prickly relations.

China recently organized a commemorative ceremony in Beijing for elderly American members of the "Flying Tigers," a renowned group of fighter pilots and servicemen who played a significant role in assisting China during World War II against the Japanese. The event received substantial coverage in state media, including articles in the party mouthpiece Peoples Daily. These articles, including a notable editorial by the name of Zhong Sheng, emphasized the need for improved relations and highlighted the significant opportunities for collaboration between both nations.

Chinese social media users have quickly noticed the shift away from the usual criticism of the US, leading to humorous remarks such as one user saying, "Okay, I'll temporarily put aside my dislike for the US and wait for more updates."

Furthermore, recent monthly surveys conducted by Morning Consult, a business insight firm, indicate a softening of Chinese public sentiment towards the US over the past few months. The percentage of Chinese adults who perceive the US as an "enemy or unfriendly" has decreased by 9 points, reaching 48% from April to October.

Unfeasible in practice

Additionally, the summer visit of four cabinet-level US officials to Beijing has resulted in the initiation of subsequent lower-level discussions and reciprocal visits. This development marks a notable progress in the revitalization of communication channels that were severed by Beijing in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022.

Analysts doubt that any of these talks, including the summit between Biden and Xi, will lead to concessions on core issues like Taiwan, Beijing's claims in the disputed South China Sea, or actions taken under the guise of protecting national security. "Both China and the United States aim to prevent their competition and confrontation from worsening significantly... However, neither side is willing to make substantial and lasting concessions," explained Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in China.

Even on international issues, where both have a stake in ensuring global stability, its unclear how much coordination there can be.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping addresses leaders during the Third Belt and Road Forum in Beijing last month.

EyePress News/Reuters

China's ambitious goal to reshape the global landscape is gaining the attention of nations worldwide. Despite the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, the United States is increasingly doubtful of China's willingness to exert influence on its ally, Russia, in order to halt the ongoing invasion.

Shi suggests that coordinating with China to prevent Iran's involvement in the Gaza conflict may not be practically possible. Additionally, China is cautious about escalating American rhetoric due to the approaching US elections, where politicians from both the Republican and Democratic parties may aim to demonstrate a tough stance on China in order to gain voter support.

Analysts state that although China and the US are expected to engage in positive interactions after the meeting, their relationship will remain delicate. Sun in Washington mentioned that these interactions will not resolve the underlying conflict of national interests between the two countries. Therefore, people will question the authenticity and durability of this development.

CNNs Nectar Gan and Marc Stewart contributed reporting.