Biden administration downplays Netanyahu's Rafah invasion announcement as political posturing

The Biden administration believes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's announcement about setting a date for a ground offensive in Rafah is more about political posturing than actual plans. Senior administration officials told CNN that Netanyahu's statement is influenced by his uncertain political position in Israel.

The administration has publicly expressed doubts about Netanyahu's claim on Monday that Israel has finalized a time for a large-scale offensive in southern Gaza. Top Biden national security officials stated on Tuesday that they have not been informed of any specific date for such an operation.

Privately, several senior administration officials believe that Netanyahu's recent statement about Israeli troops entering Rafah was more about showing confidence than actual intention.

The prime minister is facing challenges in trying to achieve his goal of eliminating Hamas while also dealing with the pressure to secure a ceasefire that would result in the release of Israeli hostages. Israeli officials are emphasizing the presence of four Hamas battalions in Rafah that need to be dealt with.

Netanyahu may also face a ticking clock - once the war ends Israel is expected to go through a political reckoning and the potential fracturing of Netanyahu’s tenuous far-right governing coalition.

In pushing back against Netanyahu’s Rafah plans, American officials have reiterated that the US has not seen anything resembling a comprehensive plan from the Israelis on how they would carry out such an operation, including first moving the majority of the estimated 1.4 million civilians out of Rafah.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned on Tuesday that there is no date for a Rafah operation that has been shared with them by the Israelis. He also stated that he does not see any imminent actions taking place.

President Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, also confirmed on Tuesday that if there is a date for the operation, it has not been communicated to them.

During a call with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Monday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant informed Austin that Israel is still in the process of planning a potential invasion of Rafah. They are also making necessary preparations, including ensuring the protection of civilians. However, no specific date has been set for the operation, as reported by multiple sources familiar with the call to CNN.

Additionally, President Biden is mindful of Prime Minister Netanyahu's current political situation. This includes considering the extent to which the prime minister is dependent on his ultra-conservative government, which is noted as the most right-wing in Israeli history, according to a senior administration official speaking to CNN.

US officials, including President Biden, have been cautious about making public comments on Israeli politics during the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, there have been instances where private opinions have been revealed. For example, Biden expressed his concerns about Israel's government during a speech to donors in Washington, urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to reconsider his approach to the war.

Biden expressed his belief that change is necessary, mentioning that the current government in Israel is making it challenging for movement. He described Netanyahu's government as the most conservative in Israel's history. Additionally, Biden noted a decrease in support for Israel's military actions due to the intense bombardment of Gaza. He also pointed out that Netanyahu's coalition is not in favor of a two-state solution.

During a virtual meeting last week, top Biden national security officials raised concerns with Israeli officials regarding the evacuation of a large group of civilians from Rafah. They inquired about practical details such as housing arrangements, as well as the amount of food and water needed for the evacuees. This information was shared by a senior administration official and two sources familiar with the discussions.

According to the sources, Israeli officials did not provide comprehensive answers during the meeting. Subsequent follow-up discussions have taken place, and it is anticipated that an in-person follow-up meeting will occur next week, as stated by Blinken on Tuesday.

During last week's call, Israeli officials expressed their concern that not entering Rafah would undo the progress made in weakening Hamas during the first six months of the conflict. They warned that Hamas could regroup and rebuild from the remaining battalions in the area, as reported by one of the sources briefed.

This report includes contributions from CNN's Natasha Bertrand and Oren Liebermann.

Editor's P/S:

The Biden administration's skepticism towards Netanyahu's announced plans for a Rafah offensive highlights the complex political dynamics at play in the Israel-Hamas conflict. While Netanyahu may be motivated by domestic political pressures to assert a tough stance, the lack of a concrete plan and the absence of communication with the US suggest that the announcement is more symbolic than substantive. The administration's concerns about the humanitarian implications of a large-scale operation, particularly the evacuation of civilians, further underscore the challenges involved in such an undertaking.

Biden's private concerns about Netanyahu's government and his urging for a more moderate approach reflect the broader international concerns about the escalating violence and the need for a ceasefire. The administration's efforts to engage with Israeli officials and discuss the practicalities of a Rafah offensive demonstrate their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution that addresses both Israel's security concerns and the well-being of the Palestinian population. The upcoming in-person meeting between US and Israeli officials will be crucial in assessing the feasibility and potential consequences of such an operation, and in working towards a sustainable resolution to the conflict.