Betraying Allies: US Congress and Slovakian Voters Abandon Ukraine

Editors Note: David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN and two-time winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor and author of "A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen." He blogs at SubStacks Andelman Unleashed. Previously, he worked as a foreign correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinions on CNN.

Supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin received significant support this weekend from the US Congress and voters in Slovakia, previously known as one of Kyiv's strongest European supporters.

David A. Andelman

CNN

Both appear to have thrown Ukraine and its war with Russia under the bus.

Robert Fico, the leader of Slovakia's pro-Russian Smer party, emerged victorious in the national parliamentary vote, according to election results released on Sunday. Fico now plans to swiftly establish a coalition government in Slovakia, which holds a crucial position on the frontlines.

Fico's campaign heavily focused on terminating all military assistance to Ukraine and advocating for an immediate ceasefire, coupled with negotiations for peace with Russia. In terms of national support, Fico secured the highest number of individual votes, with three out of the top five spots occupied by members of his anti-Ukraine party.

"Speaking post-election, Michal Šimečka, the leader of Slovakia's Progresivne Slovensko party, which secured the second position, deemed the outcome to be unfavorable for the country. However, this result also presented a setback for Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, particularly during a difficult period, as the US Congress passed a new temporary budget bill that excluded military aid to Ukraine."

The vote in Congress on Saturday evening occurred despite strong lobbying from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, as well as personal efforts by President Zelensky himself. These endeavors were made following his passionate speech to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a speech at the 78th United Nations General Assembly, held at the UN headquarters in New York City on September 19, 2023. The photo accompanying this news article was taken by Bryan R. Smith and is credited to AFP/Getty Images.

The White House is determined to swiftly push for the approval of a separate aid bill worth $20.6 billion for Ukraine, which they believe is crucial in countering Russian aggression. However, they are expected to face strong resistance, particularly from Republican lawmakers in Congress.

US President Joe Biden called on lawmakers, particularly House Republicans, to continue supporting Ukraine funding. He urged them to fulfill their promise of supporting Ukraine in a separate vote, emphasizing that American assistance to Ukraine should not be halted. However, it is the vote in Slovakia that holds significant implications in the ongoing anti-Ukraine movement among several European countries.

Slovakia, one of the seven countries bordering Ukraine, has provided significant amounts of weapons, including its own air defense system, from its own reserves in Bratislava. In addition, Slovakia has a thriving ammunition manufacturing industry that has been supporting Ukraine since the Russian invasion began. In April, the government promised to increase artillery ammunition production fivefold to meet Ukraine's needs in the conflict.

On a broader scale, Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, is closely allied with other European leaders who are friendly towards Putin, particularly Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary. Orban was one of the first to congratulate Fico on his indisputable victory in the Slovak parliamentary elections, tweeting, "Guess who's back! Congratulations to Robert Fico on his undeniable victory. It's always beneficial to collaborate with a patriot. Excited for our future cooperation."

On Sunday, October 1, in Bratislava, former Prime Minister Robert Fico, who is also the leader of Smer party, celebrates his triumph in the general elections with fellow party members.

At a recent campaign rally, Fico echoed several key beliefs of Putin, demonstrating his support for the Russian invasion. According to Fico, the conflict in Ukraine did not begin a year ago but in 2014 when Ukrainian nationalists and extremists started killing Russian civilians in Donbas and Luhansk.

Fico and Orban, leaders of EU and NATO member nations, may soon be joined by Poland if the upcoming elections grant a new mandate to the Law and Justice Party. This party has recently caused tensions within the EU by shifting away from its previous pro-Ukraine stance. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, the leader of the party, announced last month that they would no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine, opting instead to equip themselves with advanced weaponry. Poland's president later clarified that existing arms supply contracts would still be honored.

Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk, who was previously the president of the European Council, has described this election as the most significant one since the fall of communism in 1989.

Do these changes offer reassurance to various anti-Ukraine factions in other European countries, whose citizens will be voting in June to elect a new European Parliament? The EU's Public Opinion Monitoring Unit currently shows an 86% approval rating for ongoing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but other indicators of support are less strong.

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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) addressed the media on Capitol Hill on September 30, 2023, following the successful passage of a continuing resolution by the House. The resolution, which will fund the government for 45 days, was a significant achievement for McCarthy and his colleagues. The press conference, captured in the photo by Tom Brenner for The Washington Post via Getty Images, showcased the determination and dedication of the House Speaker and the importance of this legislative milestone.

Tom Brenner for The Washington Post/Getty Images

Republican blockade of Ukraine aid and Slovakias election play into Putins hands

Only 52% of French voters and 49% of German voters support EU membership for Ukraine. When it comes to military assistance, only a meager 57% of EU citizens endorse providing Ukraine with military equipment and training. Additionally, most German voters are against supplying cruise missiles to Ukraine.

These statistics indicate that anti-Ukraine parties may garner a significant portion of votes in the upcoming European Parliament elections. Such a situation could potentially hinder the elimination of the unanimity rule, which is necessary for major EU decisions, especially regarding imposing Europe-wide sanctions on Russia. In order for these measures to be approved, every EU member nation must be in agreement.

Hungary has successfully blocked or delayed sanctions on its own, even managing to secure exceptions that allow it to receive oil supplies from Russia via pipeline. Now, Hungary is allied with Slovakia, where Fico has also expressed opposition to Russian sanctions, and there is also potential alignment with Poland. These circumstances could further complicate the efforts of the rest of the EU in support of Ukraine.

Similar trends are being observed in other leading European nations. Germany, for example, sees the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party gaining popularity, with a record 21% support, surpassing that of the Social Democratic Party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which is still in power. AfD's main agenda items include opposing immigration, highlighting the impact of rising inflation on pensions, and rejecting the idea of arming Ukraine, while also portraying Putin as being unfairly criticized.

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However, outside of the European Union, there is a similar concern within NATO regarding the potential consequences of a growing anti-Ukraine coalition. Despite Turkey, a previously reluctant member, agreeing to Sweden's membership in NATO, Hungary has still not approved it. Additionally, both Hungary's Orban and Slovakia's Fico have strongly expressed their opposition to Ukraine joining the alliance. It is evident that several other NATO members, including the United States, also have reservations.

In reality, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which will inevitably weaken during the winter months, has made limited advancements on the battlefield thus far.

The presence of newly strengthened parties opposing Ukraine in border states, along with indecisiveness from prominent opponents of the Kremlin like the United States, creates an extremely harmful combination. Urgent action from Congress is required to prevent additional weakening, or even the potential collapse, of unwavering support for Ukraine among Western democracies.