Azerbaijan’s Recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh: Impact on the Lives of Thousands – What You Need to Know!

In Stepanakert, the capital of the breakaway region, a significant number of people celebrated the surrender of separatist Armenian fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh by setting fire to numerous paper documents. The intention behind this act was to eradicate any potential evidence that could implicate them as members of the de facto government, as revealed by Olesya Vartanyan, the Crisis Group's senior analyst for the South Caucasus, during an interview with CNN.

"They fear that this may result in their persecution," she stated.

Although the recent short, yet violent conflict for regional control has ended with a ceasefire, concerns arise of an imminent humanitarian catastrophe. Azerbaijan has expressed its intention to "reintegrate" Nagorno-Karabakh, but it remains unclear how this can be achieved without causing a large-scale exodus of over 120,000 ethnic Armenians from the area. Additionally, the issue of preventing violence against those who choose to remain and resist Azerbaijani authority is unresolved.

Azerbaijan announced that it has successfully regained complete control over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave inhabited by ethnic Armenians within its borders. This was achieved through a swift and intensive assault lasting 24 hours, resulting in the loss of over 200 lives and leaving several hundreds injured. Despite being outnumbered, Karabakh officials were compelled to surrender due to their unfavorable circumstances.

The prospects of achieving a lasting peace remain uncertain. Nagorno-Karabakh is officially recognized as part of Azerbaijan on the international stage, yet it has been under the control of Armenian separatists for many years. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in two previous conflicts centering around Nagorno-Karabakh, and their subsequent ceasefire agreements have proven to be fragile at best.

While the previous ceasefire prevented a massive loss of life in Karabakh, it has heavily disrupted the lives of ethnic Armenians in the area, leaving them facing an uncertain future. In contrast to the 2020 ceasefire, the recent agreement goes beyond the laying down of weapons and includes the complete disarmament of Nagorno-Karabakh's armed forces, according to the region's presidential office. However, Baku officials are demanding further action, specifically the dissolution of the unrecognized de facto government in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been in power for decades and is not acknowledged by Azerbaijan or any other country, including Armenia.

Azerbaijan's President, Ilham Aliyev, has consistently expressed his expectations for Karabakh officials. In a speech given in May, he urged Karabakh Armenians to comply by fully integrating into Azerbaijan. On Thursday, Baku dispatched representatives to meet with Karabakh officials in Yevlakh city, discussing matters of reintegration.

Ahead of the meeting, there were limited disclosed specifics, but Aliyev had assured that the Karabakh Armenians' rights would be safeguarded. The Azeri delegation has reported that the talks took place in a constructive and positive setting, with particular emphasis on addressing the humanitarian needs, such as fuel and food.

According to the national news agency AZA, the delegation stated that they have positively received their requests. This includes providing heating systems for kindergartens and schools, emergency medical aid, firefighting equipment, fuel, and humanitarian aid. However, concerns remain about the implications of "reintegration." Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and international experts have repeatedly expressed apprehensions about the possibility of ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the enclave.

The humanitarian situation continues to be a major concern for the United Nations secretary-general, according to Miroslav Jenca, a senior political official at the UN. Speaking at the UN Security Council on Thursday, Jenca emphasized the ongoing impact of the escalation.

A damaged residential building after Azerbaijani shelling of Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh, September 19, 2023.

Siranush Sargsyan/AP

Unable to leave

For a period of nine months, Nagorno-Karabakh has been subjected to a blockade. In December 2022, activists backed by Azerbaijan set up a military checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, which serves as the sole pathway linking Armenia to the region. This action not only obstructed the transportation of food but also instilled fears that the local population was being abandoned to suffer from starvation.

The blockade has hindered the access of humanitarian organizations and foreign media to the region, making it challenging to verify reports of additional Azerbaijani attacks and the movement of the Armenian population independently.

CNN interviewed journalist Siranush Sargsyan in Nagorno-Karabakh, who reported hearing "intensive" shelling from a suburb in Stepanakert on Thursday. Meanwhile, negotiations between officials from Karabakh and Baku were still ongoing. Sargsyan stated that a majority of the population were in a state of panic, running and terrified.

After the temporary ceasefire, a significant number of residents from Karabakh allegedly sought refuge at the airport, which serves as a base for Russian peacekeepers.

Highlighting the dire situation in rural Nagorno-Karabakh, Sargsyan expressed concern over more than 20 villages currently besieged. With no access to electricity or functioning phone lines, the safety of their loved ones remains unknown.

Those trying to evacuate face a host of problems, from a lack of fuel to the blockade Lachin corridor.

According to Olesya Vartanyan, the arrival of Azerbaijani soldiers in these regions has resulted in the displacement of numerous individuals. She mentioned that these people lack proper housing and many of them are currently residing on the streets.

Many Armenians, worried about potential escalation, have already decided to leave. However, it is uncertain which entity will arrange the routes out of the country if the Lachin blockade is lifted. Vartanyan questioned if it would be the Russian peacekeepers, the ICRC, or the Azerbaijani authorities. Additionally, she raised concerns about the possibility of people having to go through filtration camps and the potential detention of individuals involved in past fighting or local de facto authorities. The situation is chaotic.

It is uncertain where Karabakh Armenians will go if evacuations can start. The Armenian Government has stated that they do not intend to displace the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and that their rights to live safely and with dignity in their homes should be ensured. However, if this proves to be impossible, the government will make the necessary decisions, though no additional details have been provided.

This is my home

Farid Shafiyev, chair of the Center of Analysis of International Relations in Baku, told CNN that the choice confronting Armenians who chose to stay was clear.

"Those who refuse to submit to Azerbaijani jurisdiction must depart. Those who desire to remain and obtain passports, they are invited to stay," stated Shafiyev, whose center played a role in Baku's plans for "reintegration."

When questioned about her own evacuation plans, Sargsyan expressed her intention to stay in Stepanakert for as long as possible. "However, if they launch another attack, I am uncertain of our course of action," she admitted. "What I do know is that I cannot place my trust in them and their false assurances."

In addition to the urgent efforts to offer refuge and assistance to the numerous Armenians seeking to escape Nagorno-Karabakh, the plan to dismantle the current establishments in the area and establish new ones remains uncertain for Baku.

Azerbaijani officials met with ethnic Armenian representatives from Nagorno-Karabakh in Yevlakh, Azerbaijan, September 21, 2023.

Reuters

“This entity has effectively governed itself as an autonomous state after being a part of Soviet Azerbaijan. It possesses significant experience and a history of autonomy," stated Anna Ohanyan, a senior scholar in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in an interview with CNN.

Ohanyan cautioned that any attempts to dismantle the current institutions, as claimed by Baku, would undermine the potential for sincere peace-building in the future. She further added, "If Azerbaijan truly aimed for integration, there would be some effort to incorporate these institutions."

Ohanyan cautioned that Azerbaijan would definitely resort to force if the Armenian residents in the enclave declined Azerbaijani citizenship. He emphasized that it would be highly perilous for the Armenian community to remain without accepting Azerbaijani passports.

In the best-case scenario, as per Ohanyan, it would be ideal for there to be a "Potemkin village" that perpetuates deception towards the West, similar to the historical fake settlements that aimed to impress Russian Empress Catherine the Great. However, looking ahead, Ohanyan predicts a systematic effort to promote demographic engineering and gradually displace Armenian communities from the region.

Previous reporting from CNNs Tim Lister, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Anna Chernova, Nick Paton Walsh, Katherina Krebs, Mariya Knight, Chris Liakos, Maya Szaniecki, Radina Gigova and Alex Hardie.