Analysts: China's Naval Appointments Indicate Xi's Expanding Territorial Goals
China's recent appointment of Adm Dong Jun as defense minister reflects President Xi Jinping's territorial ambitions, with Taiwan being a key priority This significant move marks the first time a naval officer has been elevated to this position, highlighting China's focus on submarines and favoritism towards the navy
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(CNN) - Last week, when Xi Jinping appointed Adm. Dong Jun as China's defense minister, it was the first time a naval officer had been promoted to that position. Analysts say this move clearly shows the Chinese leader's priorities, with Taiwan being one of the top issues.
Dong's extensive experience as head of the Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and in operational assignments within the Chinese military's Eastern and Southern theater commands, provides him with a unique background for the defense minister position, as stated in a report by the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the US Naval War College in Rhode Island.
According to CMSI analysts Andrew Erickson and Christopher Sharman, Dong's resumé showcases a strong focus on joint and naval operations under Xi, with potential implications for sovereignty disputes in the East and South China Seas, particularly with regards to Taiwan.
Former director of operations at the US Pacific Commands Joint Intelligence Center, Carl Schuster, stated that Dong possesses significant international, joint, and naval experience in the crucial theaters where Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been making assertive territorial claims. Xi, who has prioritized gaining control of Taiwan as part of his broader goal to elevate China's global power and status, recently declared that the reunification of Taiwan with China is unavoidable.
Chinas Communist Party asserts its claim over Taiwan as its own territory, despite having never exercised control over it. Chinese officials state their goal of peaceful "reunification" but have not dismissed the possibility of using force to assert control over the island.
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Chinas military has ramped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Taiwan under Xi.
Chinese aircrafts have been increasing their frequency of crossing into Taiwan's air defense identification zone and over the unofficial but previously respected "median line" in the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, there has been a notable increase in the frequency of Chinese warships crossing the median line as well.
China is also involved in sovereignty disputes with Japan over the Senkuku Islands, referred to as the Diaoyus by China, as well as several other governments over contested reefs, shoals, and islands in the South China Sea, most of which Beijing claims as its territory.
While the defense minister position in China is primarily ceremonial, serving as the public representative of military diplomacy with other nations, Erickson and Sharman stated that Dong's experience will make him "an influential communicator with foreign counterparts."
Possible Asian flashpoints
Tensions are heating up around the region, and diplomacy is becoming ever more vital amid hardening stances and unpredictable events.
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan could greatly impact the island's relationship with China and escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, in the South China Sea, the China Coast Guard has been involved in aggressive encounters with Philippine vessels attempting to resupply a military outpost on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.
The Senkaku chain, controlled by Japan but claimed by China, sees over 100 China Coast Guard and other vessels entering Japan's contiguous zone around the islands on a monthly basis, as reported by Japan's Foreign Ministry in December. In addition, Beijing reopened a key military communication line with Washington late last year, following its dormancy after the visit of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in 2022.
During a joint deployment in the South China Sea on 26 October 2023, HMCS Ottawa fired its main gun towards the Hammerhead remote training target while USS Rafael Peralta and HMAS Brisbane sailed in formation, participating in a Surface Fire Exercise.
Aviator Gregory Cole/Canadian Armed Forces Photo
CNN took an 11-day cruise through some of the most-contested waters on Earth. Heres what we learned
Given that the Philippines and Japan are both US mutual defense treaty allies and the US is obligated to support Taiwan's self-defense, Dong's ability to communicate with US counterparts to prevent military escalation in all three areas could be essential for peace. Should hostilities occur, analysts believe Dong could also serve as an important advisor to commander-in-chief Xi.
Erickson and Sharman acknowledged Admiral Dong as one of the most skilled joint commanders in the PLA, with extensive operational war knowledge. Schuster highlighted Dong's extensive experience in the Southern Theater Command, which includes the South China Sea. Dong served as the deputy commander of all PLA forces in the Southern Theater and also led the PLA Navy units in that region.
As deputy commander of the East Sea Fleet, operating in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, Dong represents Xi's focus on crucial strategic experiences for his plans in the South China Sea and Taiwan, according to Schuster.
And it wasnt just Dong who Xi appointed last week that points to the Chinese leaders priorities, the analysts said.
A focus on submarines
Days prior to promoting Dong to defense minister, Xi named Adm. Hu Zhongming as the supreme commander of the PLA Navy. With a background as a career submarine officer and extensive experience in the South China Sea, analysts view Hu as a logical and suitable selection for the position.
The PLA Navy is often considered to be lagging behind the US Navy in the realm of submarines. Overall, Chinese submarines are thought to be noisier and more easily detectable compared to those of the US.
Paul Dibb, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, stated in December on the website of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute that the US continues to hold dominance in underwater warfare. He pointed out that China's strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs) are not able to provide Beijing with a secure nuclear second-strike capability, as they are highly vulnerable to US attack submarines (SSNs).
China is also considered to be behind the US in anti-submarine warfare, but has been investing in improvements in recent years, according to Schuster.
Newly released images and video from the Department show a PLA fighter jet conducting a coercive and risky intercept against a U.S. asset operating lawfully in the East China Sea. In a span of five hours, four PLA aircraft performed this intercept, at one point coming as close as 75 feet from the U.S. plane. - Office of the Secretary of Defense Public Affairs
US defense officials have reported a decrease in China's dangerous interceptions of their military aircraft. Professor Alessio Patalano from King's College in London believes that Hu would be an ideal candidate to enhance the People's Liberation Army's submarine capabilities.
"Admiral Hu, an experienced submariner with a strong track record in risk management and training improvement, will ensure that China's vital strategic capability meets the highest standards," Patalano stated.
Reports from state-run Chinese media highlight Hu's leadership in averting potentially disastrous incidents on two separate occasions, leading to the development of training protocols aimed at preventing similar occurrences.
The analysts emphasized Admiral Hu's extensive experience as a theater commander, overseeing PLA forces across vast regions.
"Admiral Hu's experience commanding multiple fleets gives him valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each fleet, allowing him to make organizational and training enhancements to maintain PLAN readiness. His experience also enables him to offer tailored guidance for operational and tactical improvements within the PLAN," Sharman and Erickson explained.
Favoring the navy
Although Xi filled two roles within the Chinese military hierarchy, these appointments coincided with the removal of nine military figures from their positions in the National People's Congress, which is China's rubber-stamp legislature. This rare move indicated a broader purge within the PLA.
Prior to Dong's appointment, the position of defense minister had remained vacant for two months after Li Shangfu was removed from the role without explanation due to his prolonged absence from public view. Xi has been leading a ten-year campaign to eradicate corruption within the Chinese military, leading to speculation about the potential involvement of the dismissed military figures in corrupt activities.
The announcement of no charges being made gives some insight into the affiliations of the nine dismissed officials, shedding light on potential events in China. Of the nine, only one was from the navy, with the majority hailing from the PLA Rocket Force, responsible for overseeing China's land-based nuclear and conventional missiles.
"The clear signposting in the tightly controlled hierarchy of the Chinese Communist Party, as Patalano noted, is evident. The appointment of two naval officers to key positions, particularly defense minister, strongly indicates two main points: the navy is viewed as the most loyal service to Xi, and it is also the service that possesses technical and professional expertise while aligning with China's goals of exerting power in its immediate surroundings."
