Analysis: The Implications of a Russian Space Weapon Threat

Clayton Swope, the deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, recently expressed his concern about a ****Russian anti-satellite weapon. He mentioned that senior US officials are worried that this weapon could render important parts of space unusable for American economic and national security for as long as a year.

Clayton Swope

Clayton Swope

Center for Strategic and International Studies

In the effort to stop Russia from creating this weapon, the United States must face a difficult reality. If an enemy were to use a weapon that disrupts US access to space capabilities, it would have serious consequences for our national security and everyday lives.

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner, a Republican from Ohio, mentioned a new national security threat in February. The White House later confirmed this, stating that the weapon had not been used and was not an immediate danger.

The success of US military operations relies on space, where satellites play a crucial role in functions like navigation, missile warning, and communications. Some of these functions are considered essential and must not fail.

The NanoRacks-Remove Debris satellite, deployed from the International Space Station in 2018, plays a crucial role in preventing disruptions to our daily lives caused by satellite malfunctions.

The disruption of satellites would cause unimaginable interruptions in our daily lives. Here, the NanoRacks-Remove Debris satellite is deployed from the International Space Station in 2018.

The military had to fight without satellite communications during the Korean War. In the 1960s, they launched their first communications satellites during the Vietnam era. GPS was then initiated in the 1970s.

A disruption to GPS satellites would require Marines to rely on a compass and map for navigation, just like their great-grandfathers did during World War II on Guadalcanal and Iwo Jima. Without satellites, the United States would face challenges in detecting intercontinental ballistic missile launches or nuclear detonations.

The Russian flag flies on the dome of the Kremlin Senate building behind Spasskaya Tower, while the roof shows what appears to be marks from the recent drone incident, in central Moscow, Russia, May 4, 2023. REUTERS/Stringer

The Russian flag can be seen flying on the dome of the Kremlin Senate building behind Spasskaya Tower in central Moscow, Russia. There are visible marks on the roof that seem to be from a recent drone incident. This photo was taken on May 4, 2023, by a photographer from Stringer/Reuters.

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The interruption to our daily lives would be unimaginable, affecting our ability to communicate and navigate. GPS provides positioning information to apps on our phones and is essential for precise timekeeping used by power utilities, communications networks, and financial institutions.

Commercial air travel relies heavily on GPS, with airlines like Finnair suspending flights due to interference. Internet access for remote communities, airplanes, ships at sea, and first responders also depend on satellite connectivity.

Before recent news about Russia's nuclear anti-satellite weapon, there was a growing global consensus that using certain space weapons was harmful to everyone. It's been almost three years since any country has conducted a destructive anti-satellite test.

In December 2022, the United Nations approved a resolution led by the US, with 155 nations voting in favor. This resolution supported a moratorium on testing destructive anti-satellite weapons. However, these trends are mainly focused on peacetime and weapons testing. In times of war, countries like China or Russia might still choose to use weapons that could jeopardize their own access to space in order to counter US advantages in space.

Russian soldiers march during the Victory Day military parade dress rehearsal at the Red Square in Moscow, Russia, Sunday, May 5, 2024. The parade will take place at Moscow's Red Square on May 9 to celebrate 79 years of the victory in WWII. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

Russian soldiers are seen marching during the dress rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade at the Red Square in Moscow, Russia on Sunday, May 5, 2024. This parade is held annually on May 9 to commemorate the 79th anniversary of the victory in World War II. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP

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It is worth noting that Russia vetoed a US and Japanese-sponsored UN resolution in April that aimed to ban nuclear weapons in space. Additionally, China chose to abstain from voting on this resolution. This action by Russia and China could indicate that they are contemplating the development of such capabilities.

The position of Russia and China on the recent vote is confusing. The use of nuclear weapons in space is already prohibited by the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which has been signed by more than 130 countries, including Russia and China.

Despite this, Moscow justified its veto. Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, criticized the UN draft as a “dirty spectacle” and a “cynical ploy.” (Russia and China had proposed an unsuccessful amendment urging all countries to prevent weapons in outer space.)

To mitigate this risk, it is essential for the US military and policymakers to reassess their fundamental beliefs regarding the accessibility of space. They must also take into account potential worst-case situations. It is important to determine which crucial tasks can solely or most effectively be carried out in space. Resources should then be focused on safeguarding and enhancing the resilience of these highest-priority, space-dependent functions.

Rather than leaving defunct equipment to drift aimlessly in orbit or plunge unpredictably to Earth we must adopt controlled reentry procedures, argues Moriba Jah.

Rather than leaving defunct equipment to drift aimlessly in orbit or plunge unpredictably to Earth we must adopt controlled reentry procedures, argues Moriba Jah.

NASA

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The proposed defense budget for 2025 falls short in addressing the growing threats in space and safeguarding space systems. It is crucial to prepare for challenges such as operating satellites in a crowded space environment filled with debris or heightened radiation from space weapons.

It is important to explore backup methods for space missions that can be conducted differently. Integrating these backup plans into military operations is essential. A recent government report highlighted the need for better efforts in finding alternatives for GPS.

If military planners identify capabilities that can only be done by satellites, leaders should consider how to fight without those capabilities or with them severely degraded. It would be better to think about what that might look like today, rather than be forced to reckon with that in the middle of a war. And proving that we can fight without space could also deter actions to disrupt space, as an adversary might see it’s not worth the trouble since the United States can maintain its military effectiveness without it.

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In Frank Herbert's science fiction novel "Dune," the protagonist believes that having the power to destroy something equals having complete control over it. The United States is one of three nations capable of exerting such control over space, with the other two being unfriendly to us.

When it comes to the possibility of victory or defeat, it is risky to assume that China or Russia would not jeopardize their own access to space in order to disrupt our vital national security and defense capabilities. This could leave us vulnerable in the event of an armed conflict.

We need a two-pronged effort to prepare for the worst: Double down on efforts to protect and maintain access to space in a hostile space environment and consider how to operate without space.

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