Analysis of Recent Republican Primaries Reveals Trump's Influence on the Party

Since Super Tuesday has passed, CNN's surveys of the Republican presidential races show how much the GOP voters have been influenced by former President Donald Trump.

In states like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and California, the majority of GOP primary voters believe that Trump is still suitable for the presidency, even if he is found guilty of a crime. Additionally, in none of these states, has the majority of GOP voters accepted President Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 election.

Exit polls help to understand primary voters’ demographics and political views, but they are not precise measurements and are only estimates. The preliminary exit poll numbers in Super Tuesday states have not been weighted to match the final results, so the numbers may still change. However, the results in the six states where entrance or exit polls were conducted this year give us a glimpse of the voter turnout. Trump has been dominant in all these states, positioning him for his third-straight GOP nomination, as his main rival Nikki Haley struggles to gather delegates.

The views on Trump's fitness for office and the 2020 election vary from state to state among Republican primary voters and caucusgoers. In California, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Iowa, 60% or more believe Trump would still be fit for the presidency even if convicted of a crime. Similar views are shared by smaller majorities in New Hampshire and Virginia. The former president, facing 91 criminal charges across four cases, has pleaded not guilty to all charges against him.

Only around 46% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters accepted Biden's victory in the 2020 election. The numbers decrease further in other states: 41% in Virginia, 36% in South Carolina, 33% in California, 32% in North Carolina, and only 29% in Iowa. It is important to note that there is no substantial evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.

The responses from voters highlight a significant gap between supporters of Trump and Haley in their perspectives on the political landscape. In each of these states, roughly three-quarters or more of Trump supporters refuse to acknowledge the election results, while the opposite is true for three-quarters or more of Haley supporters who accept Biden's victory. This shows that Trump's stance and influence have prevailed.

Despite signs of discontent with Trump in some areas, a majority of his supporters in Super Tuesday states like Virginia, North Carolina, and California have stated that they would vote Republican in November regardless of the nominee. In contrast, only a small percentage of Haley supporters expressed the same commitment. This indicates that there is a segment of the party that is not fully ready to embrace Trump, although many of these hesitant voters may still end up supporting the Republican candidate by Election Day.

In each of the six states where entrance and exit polls were conducted, a significant minority of GOP voters identified themselves as part of the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement. This ranged from about one-third in California, Virginia, and New Hampshire to nearly half in Iowa.

In each state, the majority of voters chose the economy and immigration as their top concerns, rather than foreign policy or abortion. Most voters in states like New Hampshire and California supported Trump's tough stance on immigration, with a majority believing that most undocumented immigrants should be deported instead of given a chance to apply for legal status. This marks a change from eight years ago when voters in states like New Hampshire and North Carolina were more in favor of allowing undocumented immigrants to obtain legal status.

Exit poll data from this year shows that GOP primary voters have differing opinions on abortion policy in a post-Roe v. Wade era. In Iowa, about 60% of GOP caucusgoers supported a federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide, while roughly half of primary voters in North Carolina and South Carolina agreed. On the other hand, majorities in California, Virginia, and New Hampshire expressed opposition to such a ban.

The majority of GOP caucusgoers in Iowa, as well as GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and California, identify themselves as conservatives. However, the percentage of those who consider themselves "very conservative" varies from around one-quarter in California and New Hampshire to about half in Iowa. Interestingly, Trump received the strongest support from voters who labeled themselves as very conservative in each of these states. This marks a shift from 2016, when support for Trump among different ideological groups was not as clear.

Furthermore, Trump has garnered significant support from primary voters who are extremely dissatisfied with the current state of affairs in the US. In all five states where this question was posed, the former president secured 80% or more of the votes from individuals who described themselves as angry. On the other hand, he either won by a smaller margin or was behind among those who stated that they were simply dissatisfied.

Supporters of Trump and Haley have different views on what makes their chosen candidate appealing. In a survey conducted in each state, voters were asked about the most important qualities they were looking for in a candidate: shared values, right temperament, advocacy for people like them, or ability to defeat Biden. In most states, Trump's supporters prioritized a candidate who was a fighter, while in North Carolina and California, there was a closer split between a fighter and someone who shared their values. On the other hand, Haley's supporters tended to focus more on her temperament or values.

Exit polls for the Iowa Republican caucuses and the Republican presidential primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and California were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool.

The entrance poll for Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses involved 1,628 interviews with caucus participants at 45 different locations. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

The New Hampshire Republican primary poll included 2,192 interviews with voters at 40 polling places on Election Day. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

The South Carolina Republican primary poll consisted of 2,126 interviews with voters at 40 polling places on Election Day. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

The North Carolina Republican primary poll gathered 2,157 interviews with voters at 19 early in-person voting sites and 30 polling places on Election Day. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

The Virginia Republican primary poll included 1,712 interviews with voters at 30 different polling places on Election Day. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

The California Republican primary poll conducted 585 interviews before Election Day from February 25 to March 3. Respondents were reached through telephone, email, and text messaging. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.

Editor's P/S:

The CNN exit polls reveal a concerning trend among Republican primary voters, who continue to demonstrate unwavering support for former President Trump despite his legal troubles and persistent denial of the 2020 election results. The majority of voters in several key states believe Trump remains fit for the presidency even if convicted of a crime, highlighting the enduring influence he wields over the party base. This unwavering loyalty raises questions about the future of the Republican Party and its commitment to democratic principles.

The polls also expose a significant divide between Trump and Haley supporters, with the former prioritizing a "fighter" while the latter value temperament and shared values. This divergence suggests that the Republican Party remains fractured, with a significant segment still embracing Trump's divisive rhetoric and policies. The results underscore the challenges facing the party as it navigates a post-Trump era, with the need to balance the demands of its base with the broader electorate.