Alleged Use of North Korean Missiles by Russia in Ukraine: Significance for Asia
Russia launches North Korean missiles into Ukraine, posing significant threats to European war and Korean Peninsula security
Twice in the last week, Russia has launched short-range ballistic missiles into Ukraine, which were supplied by North Korea. This has been deemed an "escalation" of North Korea's support for Moscow by the White House on Thursday, with serious implications for both the war in Europe and security on the Korean Peninsula. According to National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby at a White House briefing, the North Korean missiles were fired at Ukraine on December 30 and January 2. Kyiv reported that at least 500 missiles and drones were fired at Ukraine around the New Years holiday.
The December 30 attack featured a single missile that landed in a field, whereas the January 2 assault by Russia involved numerous missiles, according to Kirby. The effects of the missiles launched on January 2 are currently under evaluation, with Kirby noting that they were part of a large-scale Russian attack.
"In part because of our sanctions and export controls, Russia has grown more isolated on the global stage and has been compelled to seek military equipment from like-minded states," Kirby stated during the briefing. "As we've been publicly cautioning, one of those states is North Korea."
Kirby and experts interviewed by CNN stated that the incorporation of North Korean weapons into the conflict in Ukraine will have far-reaching effects 7,500 kilometers (4,600 miles) to the east on the Korean Peninsula.
John Kirby, the National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, addressed the media at the White House in Washington, DC on January 04, 2024. Kirby discussed the U.S. government's assertion that Russia received North Korean ballistic missiles, which were then utilized to attack Ukraine.
Image credit: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
"This escalation in the DPRK's support for Russia is a cause for concern," Kirby stated, using the acronym for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"We anticipate that Russia and North Korea will take heed from these launches," Kirby added.
Analysts agreed with this idea, stating that the utilization of North Korean missiles in the Ukraine conflict could provide Pyongyang with valuable data not obtainable from their testing program. This program has involved numerous missile launches under the leadership of Kim Jong Un over the past few years. "It will be intriguing to observe the performance of these missiles in a real-world setting outside of North Korea's propaganda apparatus, particularly in terms of accuracy and guidance systems," noted Joseph Dempsey, a research associate specializing in defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
This photograph, distributed by Sputnik agency, depicts North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un meeting with the Russian President at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur region on September 13, 2023. This meeting precedes planned talks that may result in a weapons deal with the Russian President.
Vladimir Smirnov/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
North Korea says it will no longer seek reunification with South Korea, will launch new spy satellites in 2024
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that Russia's deployment of the missiles in Ukraine will enable North Korea to collect valuable data on their capability to breach defenses similar to those employed by South Korea and the United States on the Korean Peninsula.
"From a technical standpoint, I believe that North Korea will be extremely curious to observe the performance of their missiles against Western missile defense systems," he commented.
Kirby, speaking at the White House, stated that the impact on South Korea and the region goes beyond just Pyongyang's missile programs. He also mentioned that in exchange for its support, Pyongyang is believed to be seeking military aid from Russia, including fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment, war materials, and other advanced technologies.
"This would have concerning security implications for the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region."
Video Ad Feedback
Top Ukrainian general has a warning about this Russian weapon
02:38
- Source:
CNN
The areas Kirby ticked off are ones where North Koreas adversaries in East Asia - most notably South Korea, the US and Japan - are considered to have big advantages over the isolated nation.
For example, all three countries have advanced F-35 stealth fighter jets, providing them with significant advantages in breaching North Korean air defenses. However, if Pyongyang were to obtain more modern Russian surface-to-air missiles with advanced tracking radars, it could significantly diminish the F-35 advantage.
Lee Jang Wook, a research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy in the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), stated that Russia is likely providing financial support to Pyongyang.
Lee told CNN that the primary advantage is that North Korea's weapons will serve as an additional source of export revenue. He added that this revenue could provide further financial support for the mass production of nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, Kirby and the analysts say Russia is likely seeing immediate benefits from any influx of North Korean armaments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen attending a meeting with the CEO of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, in Moscow on December 28, 2023. The photo was distributed by Russian state agency Sputnik and taken by Gavriil Grigorov.
An official has indicated that Russia is ready to buy ballistic missiles from Iran. According to Dempsey, the main advantage of this would be to replenish Russia's diminishing missile arsenal, rather than providing any new qualitative technology beyond what Russia already possesses.
According to Panda, the North Korean missiles will enable Russia to maintain deep strikes without depleting its own missile arsenal. Kirby added that these missiles have a range of up to 900 kilometers, allowing them to be launched from within Russian territory, where Moscow's air defenses can provide better protection from potential Ukrainian counterattacks. Additionally, Panda noted that the North Korean supply has another advantage for Moscow.
The existence of a land border between Russia and North Korea makes it extremely difficult for Western states to interfere with transfers, as long as Pyongyang remains willing to cooperate with Russia," he stated. This situation paints a concerning future for Ukraine.
Kirby stated that Russia is expected to utilize more North Korean missiles to attack Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and harm innocent civilians. This report includes contributions from CNN's Soeun Kim.
