Unveiling the Untold Success: Here's Why Biden's Problems are Just a Mirage

President Joe Biden experienced a week filled with challenges and setbacks. He is currently facing an impeachment inquiry, his son has been indicted in Delaware, inflation appears to be increasing once again, and the United Auto Workers went on strike despite Biden's previous assurance that they wouldn't. Furthermore, there is speculation among the chattering class regarding his potential decision not to run for reelection. These circumstances contribute to my colleague Zach Wolf's observation that "Bidens two worst weaknesses were exposed" during this past week. Consequently, I have also written about the difficulties the president is encountering as he looks ahead to the upcoming year.

But while Biden clearly has problems - no president with an approval rating hovering around 40% is in good shape - some of his issues appear to be exaggerated at this time. Here are three reasons why:

1. Bidens going to win the Democratic primary, unless something drastic happens

The recent op-ed by David Ignatius in The Washington Post, urging Biden to refrain from seeking reelection, gained significant attention in the past week. However, irrespective of the debate on whether or not Biden should run, it is a confirmed fact that he has decided to enter the race. Many individuals often cite polls, such as those conducted by CNN, indicating that a majority of Democrats are opposed to endorsing him as their party's candidate once again.

However, these surveys have their limitations as they solely focus on comparing Biden with himself, rather than with any other candidates. In the CNN poll, when participants were asked to indicate a preferred alternative to Biden, only a slightly higher percentage, around 10%, could actually name a specific person.

On the other hand, when Biden is pitted against prominent Democratic rivals such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, he enjoys overwhelming support. Recent polling consistently shows him securing an average support rate of over 70%.

Furthermore, Biden's approval rating among Democrats remains consistently high at around 80%. This level of support exceeds that of past incumbents who have encountered significant primary challenges. Notably, such challenges, like when Ted Kennedy contested against incumbent Jimmy Carter in 1980, occurred when the president's approval rating within his own party was in the 50s or 60s.

It is essential to examine whether the perception that many Democrats oppose Biden's renomination conceals a more significant issue he might encounter in a general election.

Biden is garnering over 90% of the Democratic support in recent general election polls conducted by Fox News and Quinnipiac University. Interestingly, his share among Republicans slightly surpassed that of former President Donald Trump in both polls, although this difference falls within the margin of error.

Undoubtedly, Biden faces challenges, but securing renomination is not among them.

2. The impeachment inquiry isnt damaging Biden … yet

Politically speaking, President Biden's associations with his son Hunter have been a source of considerable distress. The majority of voters believe that Biden's actions regarding his son's business ventures were inappropriate.

It is logical to assume that the House Republicans' impeachment inquiry into the president's involvement in his sons' foreign business deals would have a negative impact on his political prospects.

On average, approximately 40% of voters believe that Joe Biden committed an illegal act, while the majority of voters do not share this view.

Republicans may be hoping that Biden's personal issues will overshadow the legal challenges faced by their probable nominee (Trump), who is currently facing four indictments. However, a majority of voters believe that Trump has indeed committed a crime. The perception of the Biden and Trump cases differs among the general public.

US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and US President Joe Biden.

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Biden advisers plotted impeachment response plan ahead of McCarthy's impeachment inquiry announcement

According to a late August poll by the Wall Street Journal, the majority of Americans (52%) expressed their disinterest in impeaching Biden. Republicans will need to present compelling arguments to sway public opinion.

It is possible that Republicans could overshoot their target, as they have done before. In 1998, the impeachment inquiry into Bill Clinton was followed by a strong performance by the Democratic Party in the midterm election. In fact, the Democratic Party gained seats in the House, which has happened three times for the party of the sitting president in the past century.

To understand how impeachment could have a negative impact on the GOP in this current cycle, we should consider independent voters. According to our latest CNN poll, while a large majority of independents disapprove of President Biden's job performance (64%), only 39% believe he has done something illegal.

An election about a potentially unpopular impeachment would be better for Biden than one about an issue that really hurts him (such as voters seeing him as too old).

3. Voters dont like the state of the economy; it may not matter that much

In the 2022 midterms, a familiar narrative unfolded: Biden, as the incumbent president during an election year, faced a dissatisfied electorate due to the state of the economy. Surprisingly, his party outperformed expectations and achieved considerable success.

The inflation rate is currently lower than before, but it is increasing. Both voters today and in the past strongly disapprove of how Biden is managing the economy. They still prioritize the economy over any other issue, as they did in 2022. However, it is important to note that this data does not consider Gallup's findings, which indicate that Americans consistently view the economy as the most important issue.

In Los Angeles, California, construction workers are seen standing on scaffolding as they work on building residential housing. The work was captured on July 12, 2023. It is worth noting that the U.S. economy saw an addition of 209,000 jobs in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This increase points towards a slowing economy, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's ongoing campaign against inflation.

Mario Tama/Getty Images

Why Biden's strong economy feels so bad to most Americans

Surprisingly, a smaller percentage of Americans now believe that the economy is the foremost issue plaguing the country (31%), compared to previous presidential elections since 1988, where the median was 40% and the average was 45%. Considering notable past elections such as 1992, 2008, and 2012, it is evident that the state of the economy held significant prominence in the media.

However, as previously stated, there are currently numerous events taking place within the country, just like during the 2022 midterms.

Although the economy may not be benefiting Biden, I am uncertain if it is actually causing him harm.

Democrats have consistently exceeded the 2020 presidential baseline in special elections this year, indicating there is a valid explanation behind their success. It is highly unlikely that Biden and the Democrats would be experiencing widespread losses if their situation were truly dire. At present, this is simply not the case.