2024: Israel-Hamas Conflict Escalation, Advancements in AI, and the Impact of a Pivotal US Election - 5 Forecasts

As we enter 2024 what lies ahead on the global stage may seem more uncertain than it has in years.

To help you make sense of it, here are some key themes to watch.

1. Israel-Hamas war threatens to spill over

Israel has warned the war with Hamas could take months.

Said Khatib/AFP/Getty Images

Israel has intensified its offensive in the Gaza Strip in response to recent attacks by Hamas, drawing increased international pressure to shorten and reduce the intensity of the conflict due to concerns for the safety and well-being of Gazans. Despite this pressure, Israel has pledged to continue its campaign against Hamas for an extended period.

Tensions are rising as there are more frequent cross-border clashes between the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) along the Lebanon-Israel border, raising the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

Iran-backed factions in Iraq are increasingly carrying out more daring and frequent proxy attacks, such as the recent assault on the US embassy in Baghdad. Additionally, potential future attacks by Yemens Iran-backed Houthi rebels on crucial global shipping routes via the Red Sea and Suez Canal could result in a significant surge in energy prices.

Moreover, there is a looming danger of other extremist groups in the area being emboldened by opportunistic or resentful motives. It is evident that any official normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which seemed imminent before October 7, is no longer a possibility.

The United States' initial strong backing of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza has tarnished its reputation as a defender of human rights and global law. This damage to its image is not expected to be quickly resolved, even though there has been a noticeable change in approach.

As we head into 2024, the US and its partners need to find a way to both respond to and prevent proxy attacks, while ensuring that their reactions do not escalate into a broader conflict.

2. Stalemate as Russia-Ukraine conflict enters third year

Ukraine is fighting for survival but their are signs of waning international support.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters

Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine will enter its third year this February. Russia and Ukraine remain at an impasse, with no indication of either achieving victory or being willing to compromise on their conflicting goals. Ukraine continues to fight for its survival, territorial integrity, and sovereignty, while Russia is committed to what it refers to as "denazification" and the demilitarization of Ukraine, as well as preventing its aspiration to join NATO and other Western organizations. Historians and political observers have widely dismissed the Russian framing of its invasion as "denazification."

Putin starts the year more confidently than he did the year before.

Ukrainian servicemen near the front line town of Marinka, in Donetsk region.

Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters

With Western support dwindling and Russia's formidable war machine, Ukraine's prospects for victory are dimming. The anticipated 2023 counteroffensive failed to regain the momentum gained by Kyiv in 2022. Russia is replenishing its war supplies with help from Iran and North Korea. Furthermore, Ukraine is facing a manpower shortage, unlike Russia, which has a numerical advantage in terms of troops.

Europe is facing limitations in supplying ammunition and military hardware to Ukraine due to its own depleted stocks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's concerns about cracks in Western unity have become a reality, as political divisions in the US and Europe are now impeding the delivery of military and economic aid. Zelensky's trip to Washington, DC resulted in only $200 million, far less than the $61 billion he had hoped for, due to congressional Republicans' refusal to budge on border policy changes. Shortly after, Hungary blocked a 50 billion euro ($55 billion) European Union aid package for Ukraine. It is expected that these challenges will continue to hinder Ukraine's military efforts next year, as both the US and EU prioritize domestic issues ahead of their elections.

Ukraine may shift its focus towards a defensive strategy, including the training of new recruits and the production of defense equipment. The strategic goal of challenging Russia's dominance in the Black Sea will continue to drive Ukraine's efforts, particularly in regards to the illegally annexed Crimea.

Despite Ukraine's formal path towards EU membership, the support from allies in terms of rhetoric and institutional embrace may not always be matched by tangible military and financial assistance.

3. Elections, certain and uncertain

The outcome of this conflict will largely depend on the leadership of the United States, which provides Ukraine with significant financial and military assistance. Moscow is hoping for the return of the Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump, this upcoming fall.

Dozens of countries hold elections this year, with all eyes on the US come November.

The 2024 elections will be particularly significant with two billion people around the world participating in a year filled with global instability and many important political figures on the ballots.

The upcoming United States elections on November 5th could potentially result in a return to the White House for Trump. Despite holding a commanding lead over his Republican rivals for the party's nomination, legal obstacles such as the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling that he cannot run in the state due to the 2021 insurrection case, as well as a similar decision in Maine, may foreshadow the challenges he will face.

It is unprecedented for a candidate to run under indictment, and while Trump's claims of a legal "witch hunt" have mobilized his base, it is uncertain whether this will resonate with the wider electorate. On the other hand, President Joe Biden is not generating enthusiasm among Democrats, with opinion polls indicating that a majority of voters believe the octogenarian is too old for reelection and his approval ratings are low. As always, the swing states will be crucial to watch.

India will hold the worlds largest democratic elections throughout April and May.

Bangladesh is the first of four South Asian nations to go to the polls in 2024

Mamunur Rashid/NurPhoto/Getty Images

In 2024, over a billion people in South Asia will cast their votes in the upcoming elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are anticipated to win a third term, despite concerns about inflation and purchasing power. Modi's popularity among India's Hindu majority is rooted in his patriotic stance and assertive foreign policy, although critics argue that this has led to the sidelining of India's once secular and democratic values, making minorities feel unsafe.

Russia's election on March 17 is expected to be predictable, with prominent opposition leader Alexey Navalny imprisoned and independent media suppressed. The turnout will be closely watched, as low participation could intensify pressure on the Kremlin and its actions in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Belarus and Iran are also holding elections. Taiwan's upcoming election is another key event, as it will set the tone for relations with China for the next four years. The results could lead to a deterioration of relations if the Democratic Progressive Party's Lai Ching-te, a strong advocate for Taiwanese independence, wins. Conversely, the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party candidates are expected to seek less friction with China, but all three parties oppose Beijing's "one country, two systems" principle.

4. Territorial disputes

The African National Congress (ANC) is facing a genuine threat of losing its parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections for the first time in three decades. Factors such as unemployment, economic instability, and crime have contributed to the erosion of the ANC's dominance. President Cyril Ramaphosa, who assumed office in 2018 following the tumultuous tenure of Jacob Zuma, has also come under scrutiny for alleged corruption, which he has denied.

Expect more bitter rows at the UN Security Council in 2024.

David Dee Delgado/Reuters

As the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East show, we are at in inflection point in geopolitics.

The move towards authoritarianism and the long-anticipated fracturing of Western dominance has finally become a reality. There has been a clear shift away from American dominance, with China and Russia taking advantage of this change. Geopolitical power is shifting, with the US and EU on one side and a coalition of China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea on the other. This is leading to more bold and unpredictable actions, creating a more dangerous and uncertain global landscape. This shift may be exacerbated by the actions of non-aligned countries and the rise of competitive blocs like BRICS.

Territorial disputes and revanchism are on the rise. Azerbaijans lightning seizure of the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region is just one instance.

On 11/22/2023 in Yerevan, Armenia, citizens paid tribute to their fallen loved ones at Yerablur Military Cemetery, honoring those who lost their lives in the recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Family and friends visited the graves to lay flowers and burn incense. The conflict began on September 19th when Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive against the Armenian Republic of Artsakh, resulting in significant casualties and injuries. The fighting ended on September 21, prompting the reopening of the border and the Lachin corridor after months of blockade, leading to a mass exodus of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fleeing from Nagorno-Karabakh. This led to food, medicine, and other goods scarcities, and fears of persecution and ethnic cleansing. This moment was captured by Anthony Pizzoferrato/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images.

Title: The Unending Armenian Exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh and Its Impact on Azerbaijan's Ambitions

As India and China continue their longstanding dispute over the world's longest-disputed border, smaller powers are poised to take advantage of the Western disengagement and the expansionist ambitions of ascendant great powers. This has significant implications for the ongoing exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh and raises questions about the potential end to Azerbaijan's ambitions in the region.

The growing reliance on the veto power of the United Nations Security Council is causing paralysis and undermining confidence in the ability of supranational institutions to effectively address the high levels of conflict seen since World War II. Additionally, the failure of regional and international policymakers to quickly restore civilian rule in the aftermath of a wave of coups in Africa suggests a lack of effective sanctions and leadership.

5. AI comes of age

This increases the possibility of spreading, as other nations may also decide to take similar actions - particularly since the global focus is on the Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Ukraine.

The rapid and sometimes alarming development of AI is set to be a continuing theme.

In 2024, there is a looming conflict between the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) and the efforts to regulate it by governing institutions that are not known for their tech savvy. This tension is likely to define the year ahead.

Generative AI, which creates new data such as text, images, or designs by learning from existing data, has been around since the 1950s (let's give credit to Alan Turing here.) However, it is only now that we are seeing a major shift as AI technology becomes widely available and begins to impact all aspects of our lives.

In practical terms, this means significant advancements in image generation, design, speech synthesis, translation, and automation. It also involves the emergence of AI assistants and the personalization of technology interactions. Rather than having separate text, image, and speech models, we can expect these to be combined for a more integrated interface, as seen with models like ChatGPT and DALL-E 2.

On November 8, 2023, in Los Angeles, California, SAG-AFTRA members and supporters gathered outside Paramount Studios on day 118 of their strike against the Hollywood studios. A tentative labor agreement has been reached between the actors union and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), with the strike set to end after midnight. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Mario Tama/Getty Images

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The rapid progress of AI technology presents new ethical challenges as AI systems become more advanced. Concerns about privacy, bias, and accountability are becoming more relevant. How can we guarantee that AI systems uphold human rights and freedoms? How can we oversee and prevent AI's influence on democratic processes? How can we minimize the potential for bias in AI decision-making? These are just a few of the issues that policymakers, researchers, and society as a whole need to address.

The rapid advancement of AI technology demands substantial processing power, leading to a focus on expensive chips and quantum computing within the industry. Quantum computing represents the next frontier in cutting-edge research, leveraging the unique and counterintuitive principles of subatomic physics. Its information processing speeds and data analysis capabilities are on a completely different level. Integrating quantum computing into AI will result in faster model training and significantly enhanced self-evolution capabilities.

AI experts are unable to fully grasp the future scope and implications of this technology, a daunting realization considering the rapid pace of change and its widespread impact on humanity. However, inherent in this open-ended and uncertain future, even for the most pessimistic, lies the potential for unexpected progress and surprise. As humanity approaches 2024, at least this unwavering potential remains a constant.