The situation could have been much worse, but by avoiding catastrophe in 2023, we have only postponed massive crises to 2024. The post-Covid world is drained, financially strained, and more unstable than it has been in decades. Adding to the turmoil, a declining superpower will be preoccupied with presidential elections, and may even face internal division due to voting disputes and political extremism.
The increasing possibility of the United States being consumed by its own internal struggles heightens every potential danger. The anticipated absence of a US response to geopolitical issues could fuel authoritarian aspirations or lead to a radical disruption of the global order. 2024 has the potential to make 2023 appear rational and restrained.
Rockets are fired toward Israel from the Gaza Strip on Saturday, October 7.
Fatima Shbair/AP
The recent brutal attacks by Hamas and Israel have not yet sparked the feared regional conflict. Additionally, the Iran-backed Hezbollah has kept its involvement limited to small exchanges near the Lebanon-Israel border. It is surprising that a group formed to resist Israeli occupation has chosen not to intervene in the deaths of nearly 20,000 Gazans. Only around one-third of these individuals were estimated to be militants.
Hezbollah may still be depleted after using experienced fighters in Syria and other areas over the past decade, and may have received less Iranian funding in recent years. Its leadership may have determined that engaging in a conflict with Israel could result in widespread bombing of Lebanon, decrease the group's popularity in its homeland, and potentially weaken it even more.
It's possible that a large-scale conflict with Israel is not in the best interests of Hezbollah's main supporter, Iran. Most analyses suggest that Tehran did not order, approve, or have advance knowledge of the October 7 attack by Hamas. Iran is still dealing with internal dissent not seen for decades, economic upheaval, and likely the loss of its preeminent military figure, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Qasem Soleimani.
Palestinians inspect the rubble of the Yassin Mosque, destroyed after it was hit by an Israeli airstrike.
Iran has abandoned the nuclear deal that was previously torn apart by former US President Donald Trump. There are concerns about the alarming pace at which Iran is enriching uranium. According to public knowledge, Iran may only need 12 days to enrich enough uranium for a potential nuclear weapon, despite their claims of not wanting one. US officials have made this assessment.
Is the possibility of an Iranian nuclear bomb the next potential crisis to impact the region? Is Hezbollah being kept in reserve in case of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel and the US? Are authoritarian states in the Middle East so preoccupied with maintaining calm and unity against Iran and fostering economic cooperation that the Palestinian cause is merely a topic of outrage rather than action?
In 2024, the greatest concern may arise from Israel's most right-wing government to date. Will it seize the opportunity of internal unity and strong support from the US to defy advice from its allies and launch an attack on Hezbollah?
By October 7, the Israeli public may be prepared to endure the inevitable waves of rockets that Hezbollah would likely send in response, even though the damage and civilian toll on both sides would be significant. A potential clash, building since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, is a looming threat that seems better off avoided. The ongoing global security crisis, however, remains Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has already damaged the morale and prospects of Ukrainians. The US and the European Union's stalling on aid has impacted Ukraine's ability to achieve results, despite the billions spent by NATO on their summer counteroffensive.
Ukraine is considering mobilizing an additional 500,000 troops to replace its frontline losses. Russia is sending well-trained, well-equipped convict recruits, some of whom are drugged, according to the Ukrainians, on suicide missions. Moscow's disregard for human life, combined with its patience and decisive decision-making, is leading to a resurgence on the battlefield. The Russian army is unlikely to suddenly become the feared force of 2021, but it can wear down Ukraine, reclaim liberated land, and persist where Western allies may falter. After spending two weeks on the frontlines, it is evident that Kyiv is facing an existential crisis in the upcoming winter and will not survive without Western assistance. However, it cannot acknowledge the extent of its challenges due to the fear of being labeled a loser and unworthy of US funding by some US Republicans.
The Russian warship Novocherkassk of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is located in front of the port city Sevastopol, Russia on July 27, 2019.
Ulf Mauder/picture alliance/Getty Images
Ukraine claims it destroyed Russian tank landing ship
During a recent press conference, President Volodymyr Zelensky was questioned about his relationship with his chief of military staff, Valery Zaluzhny. He characterized it as strictly professional. However, the fact that the question was even raised highlights the deep divisions within the administration as blame is assigned for the failed summer and the looming financial crisis.
In 2023, Russia and Ukraine experienced a year in which the worst-case scenario did not materialize. Ukraine launched multiple attacks on the Russian mainland using missiles, drones, and ground troops, only to find Moscow incapable of carrying out the catastrophic retaliation it had long threatened in response to any challenge to its sovereignty. The challenge for the West is to acknowledge Russia's vulnerability while also avoiding the reckless dismissal of the Kremlin as a mere paper tiger.
In 2023, Vladimir Putin faced his most serious challenge to his rule yet. The 48-hour rebellion, led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, began as a dispute between military top brass and escalated into a mercenary march on Moscow. While the Kremlin's power remains strong, the elite now understand that Putin's invincibility is a myth, and that traitors and their associates can end up in convenient plane crashes.
It's remarkable that Putin survived this threat to his rule with little lasting disruption. However, the attempted coup must have changed the nature of his once unassailable "vertical" power.
The potential impact of the ongoing war crises has been pushed back to 2024. In the coming year, we will see if the resurgence of the Russians on the front lines signifies a strategic gain for them, or if it is just a short-lived stroke of luck. Additionally, we will find out if Western aid is dwindling, and how quickly this could result in a collapse of Ukraine. This will also be a test to see if the elite in Kyiv, who have remained strong despite internal conflict, can prioritize their country over personal disputes and reclaim control.
The implications for European security are immense. Any Russian gains in Ukraine would bring Moscow closer to NATOs borders and expose the West's disunity and shortcomings. The main measure of the West's response to this crisis has always been its endurance, which has now faltered in less than two years. This is truly a critical moment.
A fishing boat passes by a setting sun in the Sulu Sea.
Despite numerous military maneuvers in the South China Sea around the Philippines, one positive note is that China has yet to invade Taiwan. However, a demographic crisis in Beijing, including an aging population and shrinking workforce, is looming, potentially leading to an economic showdown. This may result in foreign policy excesses, as the Chinese Dream of Xi Jinping struggles to deliver. With Taiwan going to the polls next year, its fate, especially with the US commitment to defend it, remains uncertain and holds great importance for the future.
The global situation of nuclear powers is currently more tense than ever before, with instability in the US, Russia, China, Israel, India aligning with concerning authoritarian and nationalist trends, Pakistan facing an Islamist insurgency and political crises, and North Korea engaging in provocative actions such as giving old artillery munitions to Moscow and firing rockets over Japan. While this does not necessarily mean we need to take extreme measures like building fallout shelters or relocating to different countries, it does leave us in a more precarious position than we've seen in decades. The encouraging news is that the worst-case scenario has not yet occurred, leaving room for hope that it may not happen in the future.
