Youngkin's Virginia Campaign: Showcasing the Success of Non-MAGA Republican Politics
Virginia Gov Glenn Youngkin's innovative Republican strategy challenges the notion that only MAGA politics can lead to victory Despite not being on the ballot, his push for a fresh conservative direction resonates with voters
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin may not be on the ballot this year, but his efforts to steer the Republican Party towards a new conservative direction are significantly influencing the outcome of the state's legislative elections. The results of Tuesday night's elections will be seen as a test of Youngkin's non-MAGA brand of conservative politics and the state House of Delegates and state Senate candidates who align with it. Youngkin, who was elected in a traditionally Democratic state, aims to regain control of the state Senate and maintain control of the House of Delegates. To ensure this, he has endorsed candidates in key primaries, campaigned extensively with Republicans across the state, encouraged early voting among his party's supporters, and raised substantial funds to compete against Democratic fundraising efforts.
All 140 seats in the Senate, which is controlled by the Democrats, and the House of Delegates, which is controlled by the Republicans, are up for election. Candidates are running on new maps after a significant redistricting process.
Youngkin's dedication of time on the campaign trail, training in messaging, and allocation of financial resources highlights the high stakes for both his party and his own political future. Virginia governors are not permitted to run for consecutive terms, making this Youngkin's sole opportunity to govern with Republican majorities and implement a conservative agenda following a two-year period of power-sharing with Democrats. If the GOP achieves victory on Tuesday, it would also elevate Youngkin's public image as he prepares for the next phase of his political career, which could potentially include a late entry into the Republican presidential primary or a campaign for the US Senate in either 2024 or 2026.
The governor and his political team have engaged in vigorous efforts to recruit candidates who align with their vision of traditional GOP conservatism. Their goal is to appeal to both Trump supporters and the suburban voters that former President Donald Trump lost in the 2016 and 2020 elections. According to a reliable source within the GOP, the primary focus was on selecting candidates who truly represent their communities and the state as a whole. This is why Governor Youngkin actively participated in the nomination contests and achieved a perfect 10 for 10 record in the contested races. By assembling the strongest team possible, their aim is to secure victory and advance a common-sense conservative agenda.
About 20 candidates competing in both delegate and state Senate races in the battleground districts attended several bootcamp meetings and messaging sessions with a debate coach starting in the spring, according to a second source. His team also emphasized the importance of looking forward and not denying the results of the 2020 presidential election.
The candidates were encouraged to support Youngkin's proposed 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, instead of endorsing a broader ban. This discipline was applied to more than just the 10 candidates Youngkin endorsed in competitive primaries, in order to avoid distractions. In one instance, a delegate candidate posted something controversial about abortion, but it was promptly taken down within 25 minutes. Interestingly, Virginia Democrats did not seem to take notice or exploit the post to put the entire GOP in an uncomfortable position.
Youngkin proudly asserts that he has effectively paved a sensible and conservative course for legislative contenders.
"In 2021, a state that was once lost, a state that was entirely blue, has progressively veered towards the right, showcasing the effectiveness of conservative policies grounded in common sense," Youngkin declared during a campaign stop in Fredericksburg aimed at rallying supporters to vote. "We must see this through to the end."
The success of Youngkin's strategy is uncertain. Democrats believe that maintaining control of the Senate would enable them to continue opposing the governor's policies. Youngkin would likely be greatly disappointed if they do not achieve control of both chambers, according to Mark J. Rozell, the dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. Virginia has been leaning towards the Democratic party for several years, and the Dobbs Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade has led many Democrats to focus their campaign ads solely on abortion rights, which could be effective in certain districts.
Rozell stated that it was somewhat risky for Youngkin to invest so much of his political capital in races where he doesn't have complete control. Competitive races are influenced by local candidates, personalities, and issues, which may not necessarily be influenced by the governor's intervention or efforts.
Youngkins strategy
According to a source, Youngkin's political organization capitalized on Virginia's lenient campaign finance laws to collaborate closely with campaigns, providing guidance on messaging, expenditures, and campaign operations. Their position on abortion involved advocating for a 15-week limitation, but with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, and to safeguard the mother's life, presenting it as a widely accepted viewpoint. Additionally, Youngkin's team discouraged campaigns from disputing the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
Taylor Keeney, a former press secretary for Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, highlighted the challenges the party is facing on messaging and navigating certain issues. However, Keeney praised Youngkin for successfully positioning himself and the Republican Party in Virginia, particularly on sensitive topics like abortion. The Virginia Public Access Project reported that Youngkin's Spirit of Virginia PAC has raised over $18.78 million since March, with generous contributions of $3 million from billionaire donor Thomas Peterffy. Peterffy has even encouraged Youngkin to contemplate a late entry into the 2024 presidential race.
State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant, an OB-GYN seeking reelection in a closely contested district near Richmond, has received the largest contribution of approximately $1.3 million. Dunnavant, a supporter of Youngkin's proposed 15-week limit, dismisses the Democratic party's portrayal of it as a ban.
As part of the governor's strategy, he played a significant role in assisting his favored candidates in winning competitive primaries against more radical or less experienced opponents. He provided endorsements for 10 competitive House and Senate primaries, resulting in all of his preferred candidates emerging victorious.
In Senate District 27, Youngkin endorsed state Del. Tara Durant over Matt Strickland, a restaurant owner who had conflicts with state government due to his non-compliance with Covid-19 safety measures. Similarly, in Senate District 17, Youngkin supported Del. Emily Brewer, who triumphed over Hermie Sadler, a former NASCAR driver running as a political outsider.
In September, Youngkin initiated a bus tour to promote early voting and has since made nearly 100 campaign stops since the middle of summer. Many of these events were organized to engage and connect with diverse communities in Virginia. For instance, he campaigned alongside Durant at the Hispanic Heritage Festival in Fredericksburg and attended a Diwali event at the Heritage Indian Festival in Chantilly with Juan Pablo Segura, who is running for the competitive Senate District 31 in northern Virginia. This approach highlights a Republican party that values and embraces Virginia's diversity, in contrast to the MAGA rhetoric of a president who once told four congresswomen of color to "go back to where they came from."
The other candidates included in the Youngkin Ten are Senate candidates Jason Ballard, John McGuire, Bryce Reeves, and Bill Woolf, and delegate candidates Buddy Fowler, John Stirrup, Lee Peters, and Mike Dillender. McGuire, Reeves, and Ballard received nominations through conventions rather than primaries, which could be seen as an indication of Youngkin's strong support within the conservative base of the party.
According to Daniel Squadron, the founding partner of The States Project, a Democratic group dedicated to state legislative races, conservative leaders continuously recognize the importance of power and the future of the country being shaped in state legislatures. However, it appears that this lesson is never learned on our side.
Last month, the States Project revealed plans to invest over $4.5 million in Virginia. In response to Youngkin's successful fundraising and the high stakes of the race, other Democratic groups have also joined in.
Upon the urging of US Sens. Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, who is seeking re-election next year, the Democratic National Committee allocated $1.2 million to the state, increasing their total contribution to $1.5 million. Democrats in Virginia have expressed concerns that a Republican-controlled legislature, if achieved by Youngkin, may overturn the progressive voting laws enacted by Democrats in 2020.
In 2021, Democrats lost full control when Youngkin was elected and Republicans gained control of the House of Delegates. Democrats attempted to link him to former President Donald Trump at the time. However, Youngkin, the former chief executive of a private equity firm, succeeded in presenting himself as more personable and moderate, while still appealing to supporters of the former president.
Now, after two years, Democrats are highlighting the legislation supported by Youngkin and Republicans on voting rights, abortion, and gun control to argue that he is not as moderate as he appears. Nevertheless, there is limited evidence to suggest that the Virginia Democratic Party views Youngkin as a liability for the GOP. For instance, he is not portrayed negatively in any of their advertisements.
According to Susan Swecker, Chair of the Virginia Democratic Party, our recent discovery within the past two years reveals that the seemingly friendly and sports-loving father who wears a vest is actually an extreme supporter of MAGA. Swecker expressed her certainty based on her extensive campaigning across the commonwealth and engaging with voters that there is a significant amount of regret among those who previously supported him.
