What to Expect in Tuesday's Elections

The fate of abortion rights will be decided on Tuesday as Americans participate in state and local elections that will shape the upcoming presidential election in the following year. Highly contested races in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio have the potential to provide a blueprint for both political parties in the 2024 elections.

Democrats have been successful in using the issue to their advantage since the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, essentially leaving the regulation of abortion to the states. They have framed the debate as one centered around personal freedom, leaving Republicans to deal with the difficult political aspects. A win for advocates of abortion rights in Ohio, with the potential enactment of a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access, as well as victories in important races for governor, the state Supreme Court, and control of state legislatures in other states, could further highlight the importance of this issue.

Can Democrats still win a statewide race in the deeply conservative state of Mississippi? Republican Governor Tate Reeves, currently facing a corruption scandal and grappling with another healthcare crisis, is seeking a second term. Democrat Brandon Presley, leveraging Reeves' missteps, his famous surname (Elvis Presley being a second cousin), and a pledge to expand Medicaid while reducing burdensome taxes on groceries, is his challenger. (Both candidates are against abortion rights.)

Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York are set to witness intense and costly campaigns that will determine significant political outcomes. The focus will be on abortion, as the outcome of the state Supreme Court seat hangs in the balance in Pennsylvania. Similarly, the Democratic stronghold in New Jersey and New York will be tested.

In addition, the cities of Philadelphia and Houston will hold mayoral elections. Cherelle Parker, a former City Councilmember, is positioned to become Philadelphia's first female mayor. Meanwhile, in Houston, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is in a close race with state Sen. John Whitmire, which may require a run-off to determine the winner.

Here are six things to keep an eye on in the upcoming Tuesday elections:

Can Youngkin turn Virginia red?

Virginias legislative elections are set to take place on Tuesday, with all 140 seats in the state's Senate and House of Delegates up for grabs. Interestingly, the most prominent figure in this race is someone who will not be found on the ballot.

John King speaks with Loudoun County voter Gladys Burke in Leesburg, Virginia.

CNN

How these suburban Virginia women vote could shape the future of Americas abortion debate

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has made significant efforts to help Republicans gain control of the Senate, despite the Democrats' slight majority, and maintain control of the House of Delegates, where Republicans also have an advantage. He has provided endorsements in crucial primaries, conducted a bus tour to encourage early voting, and raised a remarkable $18.7 million through his leadership PAC, the Spirit of Virginia. This fundraising success can be largely attributed to speculation that he may enter the Republican presidential primary if he performs well on Tuesday.

Youngkin has focused his campaign advertisements on education, public safety, and the economy. He urges Virginians to elect Republicans to Richmond so that they can support his agenda. Additionally, he has proposed a 15-week abortion limit with exceptions for cases of rape, incest, and when the patient's life is at risk, which he believes reflects a consensus opinion. Democrats have also given considerable attention to the topic of abortion, characterizing the 15-week limit as a ban. Furthermore, they argue that Republicans may reverse progressive policies concerning voting rights and climate change that were implemented during their brief period of control after the 2019 elections.

Abortion (literally) on the ballot in Ohio

Youngkin's future remains uncertain as he maintains his focus on Virginia's elections. However, speculation continues to swirl about his next moves. It's important to note that even if Republicans take full control of the state government on Tuesday, it doesn't automatically signify a complete shift to the red side, as the state has consistently voted for Democratic candidates in the last four presidential cycles.

The 2022 midterm elections showed that when abortion rights are on the ballot, voters overwhelmingly favored protecting or expanding access. Ohio could upend that narrative.

A group from St. Michael the Archangel School in Findlay, Ohio, gathers during the Ohio March for Life rally at the Ohio State House in Columbus, Ohio, on October 6, 2023.

Carolyn Kaster/AP

Abortion rights groups are currently experiencing a series of victories, while opponents are pinning their hopes on Ohios Issue 1 as a potential game-changer. The outcome of the vote will determine whether Issue 1, which aims to protect abortion rights in the state's constitution, is successful or whether it would mark a major setback for abortion rights advocates after the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision.

Abortion rights groups contend that Issue 1 is the sole solution to halt the enforcement of the state's six-week abortion ban, which does not include exemptions for cases of rape or incest. Although the law was previously halted in court, it is currently under review by the state Supreme Court.

Abortion opponents, including Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who endorsed the six-week ban, argue that Issue 1 goes beyond what is necessary and would impede Republicans from passing a compromised bill.

This is the sole abortion rights ballot initiative presented to voters in the current year. If supporters of Issue 1 triumph, it would affirm the widespread endorsement of abortion access, even in conservative states, and inspire advocates who aim to have similar measures on the ballot in 2024. Conversely, if voters reject Issue 1, it would indicate to opponents of abortion that there is indeed a way to impede these measures.

Historic clash in Kentucky

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a Democratic leader in a red state, is seeking re-election for a second term. His opponent is Republican State Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a conservative supported by President Trump.

While not directly stated, the topic of abortion has played a significant role in the campaign. Beshear contends that Cameron will further enforce the state's already stringent abortion restrictions.

Beshear has a strong incentive to continue addressing the issue. Kentucky voters rejected a ballot measure last year that aimed to remove constitutional safeguards for abortion.

Cameron has stated his willingness to back legislation that expands the current ban's exceptions - considered one of the most stringent in the nation - if it is presented to him by lawmakers. However, during a debate, Beshear pointed out that Cameron had endorsed a Kentucky Right to Life survey that expressed opposition to these exceptions.

If Cameron does pull out a victory over Beshear, he will become the states first Black governor - and the first elected Black Republican governor in US history.

Battle for the bench in Pennsylvania

A year after Democrat John Fetterman prioritized abortion rights in his successful Senate campaign against GOP nominee Mehmet Oz, Pennsylvania Democrats are fully supporting state Supreme Court candidate Daniel McCaffery. This seat became available following the passing of Democratic Chief Justice Max Baer last year and holds significant importance in shaping the future of abortion rights in the state. The issue is anticipated to be brought before the court.

Mississippi politics all shook up?

If Republican nominee Carolyn Carluccio wins on Tuesday, Democrats' current 4-2 advantage on the bench would be reduced ahead of the 2025 elections, in which three Democratic incumbents are up for reelection.

Since the beginning of the gubernatorial election in Mississippi, the state's long-standing dynamics have been in play. Incumbent Governor Tate Reeves, a Republican, has had to face a scandal involving former NFL quarterback Brett Favre, who misappropriated millions of dollars of public funds intended for welfare recipients across the state.

Running against Reeves is Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner and second cousin of Elvis Presley. Presley has centered his campaign on kitchen-table issues, appealing to a wide range of voters including disaffected Republicans, Southern Democrats, and Black voters. If Presley wins, it would mark the first time in over two decades that a Democrat is elected as governor in the Southern state.

Still, Presley faces an uphill battle. Mississippi tends to lean Republican, making it challenging for an anti-abortion Democrat with a prominent last name to secure a win. Most polls indicate that Reeves holds the lead in this race. The central theme of this election is whether a vulnerable Republican incumbent could be defeated by a Democrat adopting the traditional Southern Democrat strategy in Mississippi politics.

Democratic dry run in NY and NJ

The past two elections have revealed signs of weakness among Democrats in the Northeast, as evidenced by the narrower-than-anticipated victories of the governors of New York and New Jersey, and the notable gains made by the New York GOP in the suburbs of Gotham.

The rightward shift can be attributed mainly to the effective Republican messaging on crime and the economy. These strategies will be put to the test on Tuesday, as all seats in the New Jersey Legislature and New York City Council are up for election.

Although Democrats currently have control over these governing bodies and are expected to maintain their power, the real question is whether Republicans can reduce the margins and send a resonating message to the nation before the 2024 campaign.