What to Expect and the Risks as Iceland Prepares for a Potential Volcanic Eruption
Iceland declares a state of emergency as a volcano in the southwest peninsula threatens to erupt Over 3,000 residents evacuate Grindavík The potential eruption raises concerns about its impact on Reykjavík, travel disruption, previous eruptions in 2014 and 2021, and the prevalence of volcanoes in Iceland
A state of emergency has been declared in Iceland as authorities expect the eruption of a volcano in the southwestern peninsula. Approximately 3,000 residents in the coastal town of Grindavík have been advised to evacuate. On Sunday, scientists, including those at Iceland's Met Office, noted changes suggesting that magma is nearing the surface. Further analysis on Monday confirmed that the largest concentration of magma is located 3.5 kilometers (two miles) northeast of Grindavík.
What happens if the volcano erupts?
So, what do we know about the forthcoming volcanic activity, what are the associated hazards, how might it impact travel, and what explains the significant amount of seismic activity within Iceland, despite its small land area of only 103,000 square kilometers (40,000 square miles)?
Iceland is currently experiencing unprecedented events that its 360,000 residents have not encountered since the eruption in Vestmannaeyjar in 1973. The eruption back then occurred suddenly and caused the destruction of 400 homes. Based on data collected in the area on Saturday, the Civil Protection Agency has determined that there is now a 15-kilometer (nine-mile) long magma corridor extending from just northwest of Grindavík into the Atlantic Ocean.
Magma is a mixture of molten and semi-molten rock beneath the surface of the Earth that can cause an eruption when it finds its way to the surface, becoming lava.
A general view of damage due to volcanic activity at a golf course in GrindavÃk on Saturday.
Ragnar Visage/RUV/Reuters
According to experts, the eruption of magma underneath the sea is expected to be more explosive compared to an eruption on land. However, an eruption on land would pose a greater threat to the town of Grindavík itself. Michele Paulatto, a research fellow at Imperial College London, mentioned that if the magma comes into contact with seawater, it has the potential to become explosive.
"There is a possibility that if the volcano erupts underwater, it could result in a Surtseyan eruption similar to the one in 1963, which occurred in Iceland and led to the formation of the island of Surtsey. This particular eruption lasted for several years," he explained.
According to Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical & Climate Hazards at University College London, there is currently no evidence to suggest that this eruption will be particularly large. However, he pointed out that forecasting the magnitude of an eruption is notoriously difficult.
The survival of the evacuated town of GrindavÃk is highly uncertain due to its close proximity to the new fracture, according to an official. The fate of the residents is bleak, as everything hinges on the eventual surface arrival of magma, which currently appears unfavorable. Meanwhile, Icelands Blue Lagoon has been closed as a result of experiencing 1,000 earthquakes within a span of 24 hours.
There is a likelihood that the magma may not reach the surface at all. Dave McGarvie, a volcanologist from the University of Lancaster in the UK, mentioned that "not all dikes breach the surface to cause eruptions... maybe only one out of every three or four." He further stated that the ideal outcome would be for the recently formed 15-kilometer-long dike to cool and solidify without any eruption.
The consequences of the seismic activity are already evident, as evidenced by the road damage caused by the earthquakes. The Icelandic road administration has posted photos on social media showing deteriorating road surfaces, fractured sidewalks, and large cracks in the roads.
Following the scientists' announcement that the possibility of the magma tunnel reaching GrindavÃk could not be dismissed, the Civil Protection Agency decided to evacuate the town on Friday night. However, on Sunday, a section of the town was reopened under police supervision to enable residents to retrieve their pets and essential belongings.
The renowned Blue Lagoon, a thermal spa located approximately seven kilometers (four miles) north of Grindavík, has temporarily closed as a precautionary measure due to the presence of potentially harmful gases.
"We have genuine concerns about toxic fumes, particularly sulfur dioxide, which can be corrosive and lead to respiratory issues," stated Paulatto. "While this may not pose a threat in the UK, it could impact the local population and tourists depending on the direction of the prevailing winds."
Is ReykjavÃk safe from the volcano?
Located approximately 70 kilometers (43 miles) southwest of Reykjavík, the capital city of Iceland, Grindavík is currently unaffected by any evacuation order. This suggests that authorities believe Reykjavík would not be impacted by a volcanic eruption.
However, Icelands only international airport, KeflavÃk, is less than 20 miles from GrindavÃk.
Will it cause travel disruption?
Experts do not anticipate a volcanic eruption to create the same amount of turmoil as witnessed in 2010 during the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano. This is because the upcoming eruption is unlikely to involve glacial ice, which caused a massive ash cloud that resulted in the cancellation of approximately 100,000 flights and affected 2 million individuals. The ash posed a significant threat to aircraft engines and had the potential to cause electrical failures.
According to Lionel Wilson, an Emeritus Professor of Earth & Planetary Sciences at Lancaster University, Eyjafjallajökull experienced an eruption that was intensified by the melting of glacial ice. As a result, the eruption plume reached high altitudes and the ash was dispersed over a wide area. Wilson stated that in the future, the volcano is expected to produce less explosive lava fountains and mainly lava flows.
Police close the road to GrindavÃk on November 12, 2023.
Micah Garen/Getty Images
What about previous eruptions in 2014 and 2021?
Iceland is no stranger to volcanic eruptions, but they typically occur in remote, uninhabited areas. In 2014, the Bárðarbunga volcanic system erupted in the central part of the country, spewing lava over 84 square kilometers (32 square miles) of highland without causing any harm to nearby communities.
In a remarkable occurrence, the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system erupted in 2021 after a dormant period of over 6,000 years. Even more astonishing, this eruption posed no threat to populated areas and instead became a popular tourist attraction as people flocked to witness the mesmerizing display of volcanic activity.
Why are there so many volcanos in Iceland?
Located on a tectonic plate boundary, Iceland experiences a continuous separation that propels North America and Eurasia apart along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Beneath Iceland lies a potent mantle plume, an area of heightened temperature compared to the surrounding magma, which causes the Earth's crust to melt and become thinner. As a result of these circumstances, Iceland harbors 32 active volcanoes.
CNNs Teele Rebane and Chris Lau contributed reporting.
