What is Iran's True Strategy in its Proxy Conflict with Israel?

According to Peter Bergen, a CNN national security analyst, Iranian leaders need to determine whether Iran is a cause or a nation, as noted by Henry Kissinger.

Iran appears to have made a strategic decision to export its militant Shia ideology, extending its influence across the Middle East. This includes activities such as arming the Houthis in Yemen, supporting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, bolstering the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and aiding Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

While Hamas receives funding from Iran for weapons, Hezbollah operates as an extension of the Iranian government and possesses a significantly stronger military capability than Hamas. With a vast arsenal of 150,000 rockets, Hezbollah surpasses the Lebanese army in terms of military strength.

But Iran and Hezbollah appeared unprepared for the aftermath of Hamas' recent massacres in Israel. It is possible that they were aware of Hamas' plans, but unaware of the extent and intensity of the events that the world witnessed on October 7.

Smoke rises after Israeli airstrikes as the attacks continue on the 29th day in Gaza City, Gaza on November 03, 2023.

Ali Jadallah/Anadolu/Getty Images

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Indeed, US intelligence sources say that senior Iranian officials appeared surprised by Hamass attacks.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, addressed the war in Gaza publicly for the first time on Friday. He emphasized that the October 7 attacks by Hamas in Israel were solely a Palestinian operation, dismissing any involvement from Hezbollah and Iran, as some reports have implied.

Nasrallah also stated that Hezbollah is considering all possible options for a military response against Israel. However, the significance of this threat may be questionable.

Nasrallah rose to prominence in the Arab world during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war when Hezbollah took two Israeli soldiers hostage, leading to a 34-day conflict that ended inconclusively. This war resulted in the deaths of over 1,100 Lebanese and 158 Israelis. Hezbollah, known for its military strength, also functions as a political movement. After the recent Lebanese election, the pro-Hezbollah bloc secured 58 out of 128 parliamentary seats, indicating a need for Hezbollah to consider the opinion of the Lebanese public. Considering Lebanon's struggling economy, it is unlikely that the Lebanese people would welcome a repeat of the destructive 2006 war that caused billions of dollars in damages to their country.

The Lebanese people are unlikely to be eager for a repeat of the 2006 war, which caused billions of dollars of damage to their country.

Peter Bergen

Hezbollah supporters in military formation moments before the funeral of a militant killed while clashing with Israeli forces last month in southern Lebanon.

Any decision to escalate the conflict would most likely require approval from Tehran, as Hezbollah operates as a proxy force under their influence in various countries including Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Presently, it seems that these forces are inclined to apply pressure on Israel and the United States in the region through minor yet persistent attacks, rather than provoking a full-scale war.

Gaza child Hashem reads a birthday card alongside his friends Tala and Sewar.

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Iran itself seems to be taking a passive approach in fueling further conflict, instead relying on its proxies to carry out the necessary actions. The Houthis, who exert control over a significant portion of Yemen and receive support and supplies from Iran, have recently launched intercepted missiles at Israeli targets. At present, both Hezbollah and Israel are engaged in retalitory exchanges along Israel's northern border, though it falls short of escalating into a full-blown war.

Simultaneously, US military bases in Iraq and Syria have faced repeated rocket and drone attacks on 24 occasions in the past month. These attacks are most likely orchestrated by Iranian proxies. The Pentagon has reported that 21 US servicemembers received treatment for "minor injuries" as a result.

Iran's ayatollahs may, at least rhetorically, express their desire for the destruction of the state of Israel due to the coexistence of the third holiest site in Islam, the Al Aqsa Mosque compound, with the holiest site in Judaism known as the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. They are fully aware that Israel poses as their strongest military adversary in the region. However, it is highly improbable for Iran to initiate a large-scale regional conflict with Israel, as it could potentially involve the United States, which has recently deployed two aircraft carrier groups to the Middle East.

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Join us on Twitter and Facebook. Additionally, the leaders of Iran's theocratic regime have encountered a substantial domestic protest movement in recent years, primarily spearheaded by women who are tired of mandatory hijab regulations in public. Alongside this, the country's economy is severely constrained by substantial sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. Over the course of the past year, the Iranian riyal has depreciated by 50% against the dollar, and the inflation rate currently stands at approximately 40%.

The Iranians have their own set of problems and therefore, they choose not to engage in a war directly with Israel, supported by the United States. Instead, they opt to work through their allies in the region to maintain pressure on Israel and the United States, without escalating the situation to the highest level.