What Happens After Iran's President Passes Away

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President Ebrahim Raisi, once considered a potential successor to Iran's Supreme Leader, has passed away while in office. This has left Iran's hardline establishment with an uncertain future ahead.

An unfortunate incident occurred on Sunday when an ultraconservative president, 63-year-old Raisi, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other high-ranking officials, lost their lives in a helicopter crash in Iran’s remote northwest. This tragic event comes at a sensitive time for a country that is currently dealing with various challenges both domestically and internationally.

The Islamic Republic continues to struggle with its economy due to American sanctions, while its young population is becoming increasingly restless. Additionally, the country is facing aggressive adversaries in the Middle East and beyond.

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group think tank, stated that Raisi’s death will lead to elections during a period when the Islamic Republic of Iran is facing a loss of legitimacy and enforcing exclusionary policies. This situation marks a critical moment for the country.

Vice President Mohammad Mokhber has taken over as the acting president, following approval from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Monday. In Iran, the Supreme Leader holds the ultimate authority in both domestic and foreign matters. According to the law, the country must now organize elections within the next 50 days.

Experts predict that the upcoming elections may be rushed and could see low voter turnout. Back in March, Iran experienced its lowest voter participation since the country was established in 1979, despite the government's attempts to encourage people to vote.

During that election, which was for seats in the parliament (Majles) and the 88-member Assembly of Experts responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader, the majority of elected officials were hardline politicians.

In this photo provided by Moj News Agency, rescue teams' vehicles are seen near the site of the incident of the helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan in northwestern Iran, Sunday, May 19, 2024.

This photo, taken by Moj News Agency, shows rescue teams' vehicles near the location where a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed in Varzaghan, northwestern Iran on Sunday, May 19, 2024.

Azin Haghighi/AP

Related live-story

Iran's President Raisi tragically passed away in a helicopter crash. According to Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC, many people no longer believe that voting can bring about significant change.

The March election excluded moderate politicians like former President Hassan Rouhani from running, narrowing the group of hardliners who will uphold the conservative rule of the Supreme Leader in the future.

According to Parsi, real alternatives to Iran's hardliners have not been given the chance to run in recent elections. He mentioned that these alternatives have lost credibility in the eyes of the majority of the population due to their failure to bring about change.

However, little change is expected to follow Raisi's death until the Supreme Leader is replaced. Particularly on foreign policy, the final decisions are made by the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards. Vaez mentioned that they mostly implement Iran's regional policy in the region. Overall, there will be more continuity than change.

Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber speaks during Iran's government cabinet on Monday in Tehran, Iran.

Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber speaks during Iran's government cabinet on Monday in Tehran, Iran.

Iran's Presidency/WANA/Reuters

What are the longer-term implications of Raisi’s death?

Raisi’s passing has sparked curiosity about the future successor of Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the highest authority in the nation.

During his presidency, the Iranian clerical establishment had shown strong support for Raisi, considering him a potential candidate to follow in Khamenei’s footsteps. Many believed he was being prepared to take on the role of Supreme Leader.

The former president strongly supported the regime's toughest policies, including suppressing the 2022 mass protests against oppressive laws like the mandatory hijab.

As per the constitution, the 88-member Assembly of Experts is responsible for selecting the next Supreme Leader after his passing. However, members of the Assembly must first be approved by Iran's influential Guardian Council, a 12-member body tasked with monitoring elections and laws.

The Assembly of Experts has become more conservative over time. In the recent March election, Raisi was voted back into the assembly, while Rouhani was not allowed to run for a seat by the Guardian Council.

Rescue team members work at the scene of the helicopter crash carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran on Monday.

Rescue team members work at the scene of the helicopter crash carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran on Monday.

Azin Haghighi/Moj News Agency/AP

If Ebrahim Raisi were to pass away, it could lead to a succession crisis in Iran. Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed out that the only other possible successor is Mojtaba Khamanei, the son of the current Supreme Leader.

However, if Mojtaba were to take over from his father, it might raise suspicions that Raisi's death was not a natural occurrence, according to Sadjadpour.

Raisi’s competitors are expected to step in to take his place, according to Vaez.

Vaez told CNN’s Paula Newton, “This completely changes any strategies the Supreme Leader’s team may have had in place.”

Iran still has plenty of political actors who are loyal to the old guard of the Islamic Republic and could potentially take over from Raisi. CNN’s Tamara Qiblawi also helped with this report.

Editor's P/S:

The sudden demise of President Ebrahim Raisi has left Iran's political landscape in a state of uncertainty. His passing has raised questions about the future leadership of the country, particularly with regards to the succession of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Raisi was widely seen as a potential successor, and his death has created a vacuum in the upper echelons of Iranian power.

Experts predict that the upcoming presidential elections will be crucial in determining the direction of Iran. However, low voter turnout and the exclusion of moderate candidates may lead to a further consolidation of hardline rule. The death of Raisi has also intensified speculation about the possibility of a succession crisis, with concerns being raised about the potential for instability and internal power struggles. The international community will be closely monitoring developments in Iran as the country navigates this period of political transition and uncertainty.