Venezuela's Annexation of Guyana's Oil-rich Region: The Aftermath
Venezuelans overwhelmingly vote for the takeover of oil-rich Guyana region, intensifying the longstanding territorial conflict between the two nations The discovery of extensive offshore energy resources has further fueled tensions
Venezuelans voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to support the annexation of a region in Guyana, known for its abundant oil reserves. This decision has intensified the ongoing territorial conflict between the two countries, sparked by the discovery of extensive offshore energy resources. The region in question, Essequibo, is heavily wooded and covers approximately two-thirds of Guyana's landmass, comparable in size to the state of Florida.
The Sunday referendum was largely symbolic, asking voters whether they agreed with establishing a Venezuelan state in the Essequibo region, granting its inhabitants Venezuelan citizenship, and officially adding the state to the map of Venezuelan territory. During a news conference revealing the initial vote count, the Venezuelan National Electoral Council confirmed that more than 95% of voters responded "yes" to each of the five questions on the ballot.
The steps that Venezuela's government would take to enforce its claim remain unclear. Venezuela has asserted its claim to the land based on its borders during the Spanish colonial period. It does not recognize the 1899 ruling by international arbitrators that established the current boundaries when Guyana was under British control. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has portrayed the referendum as a stance against imperialism on social media.
Guyana describes the action as a step towards annexation and a significant threat to its existence. President Irfaan Ali recently made a dramatic visit to Essequibo, where he raised the Guyanese flag on a mountain near the Venezuelan border.
The International Court of Justice, based in The Hague, ruled before the vote that "Venezuela shall refrain from taking any action which would modify the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute." It plans to hold a trial in the spring on the issue, following years of review and decades of failed negotiations. Venezuela does not recognize the courts jurisdiction on the issue, however.
What happens next
The outcome of the vote in Venezuela was widely anticipated, but analysts predict that its practical impact will be minimal, as the creation of a Venezuelan state within the Essequibo is highly unlikely. It is uncertain how the Venezuelan government will proceed in light of the result, and any effort to assert a claim would undoubtedly face international opposition.
The growing exchange of strong language has led to military activity in the area and aggressive posturing from both nations, with Guyanese leaders likening the situation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Numerous residents in the largely indigenous area are said to be extremely anxious.
"The ongoing dispute over the border between Guyana and Venezuela has reached an unprecedented level of tension in our countries' relations," Guyanese Foreign Minister Robert Persaud stated in Americas Quarterly on Wednesday.
Even without the implementation of the referendum, which would involve additional constitutional procedures and potentially the use of force, Maduro may still benefit politically from the vote during a challenging re-election campaign. In October, the Venezuelan opposition gained unusual momentum by uniting behind Maria Corina Machado, a center-right former legislator who has criticized Maduro for the country's high inflation and food shortages, in the first primary in 11 years.
Phil Gunson, an analyst based in Caracas with the International Crisis Group, believes that an authoritarian government in a challenging political situation will often seek a patriotic cause to generate support, and sees this as a significant factor in Maduro's actions.
