US intelligence reports Assad's alleged assistance to Hezbollah in sending Russian missile system via Wagner group involvement

According to two individuals with knowledge of the matter, the United States possesses intelligence indicating that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has allegedly made an agreement to supply the Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah with a missile defense system manufactured by Russia.

The people mentioned that the responsibility of delivering the SA-22 surface-to-air missile system has been assigned to the Russian private military company Wagner Group, which operates within Syria. However, it remains unclear whether the system has already been delivered or the proximity of its delivery. The sources highlighted that Russia initially provided this system to the Syrian government.

According to a source, the US has been closely observing the recent activities of the system, also called a Pantsir. Another source indicated that the US evaluation was partially influenced by intelligence gathered regarding conversations involving Assad, Wagner, and Hezbollah regarding the system's transfer. The Wall Street Journal had earlier mentioned the possibility of Wagner supplying the system to Hezbollah, while Assad's involvement had not been previously disclosed.

Wagner and Hezbollah have been actively operating in Syria for an extended period, working alongside Russian and Syrian armed forces to support the Assad regime against the Syrian opposition. While Hezbollah has begun withdrawing its fighters in recent years, it remains supported by Iran, a strong ally of Assad. Insight from a reliable Western intelligence source suggests an increasing level of collaboration between Hezbollah and Wagner in Syria.

In addition to their activities in Syria, there are concerns that Hezbollah may soon possess a new air defense system. These concerns arise as there are indications that the militants are contemplating opening a new front in Israel's conflict with Hamas, specifically along Israel's northern border with Lebanon. To discourage any potential escalation, the United States has issued repeated warnings to Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups to refrain from involvement in the conflict. As a deterrent, the US has deployed aircraft carriers and troops to the region.

Israel has previously taken aim at these missile systems within Syria during their broader strikes on Iranian military facilities in the region.

The extent of Russia's influence on the decision to supply the system to Hezbollah remains uncertain. Following the death of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August, the Kremlin has made some efforts to assimilate Wagner mercenaries and their assets. However, as of late September, there had been no significant change observed in terms of the Kremlin assuming complete control over the fighters, as reported by CNN previously.

Russia recently hosted Hamas leaders in Moscow, which caused the Israeli government to express its outrage.

According to CNN's report on Thursday, the US intelligence community currently believes that Iran and its allies are carefully determining their response to Israel's military intervention in Gaza. They aim to avoid direct confrontation with Israel or the US, while still imposing consequences on their opponents.

Iran does not have complete control over its various proxy groups, especially Hezbollah, according to officials. Hezbollah, which is aligned with Hamas, the group responsible for the attack on Israel on October 7, has consistently positioned itself as an adversary of Israel. American officials are greatly worried that Hezbollah's internal dynamics could potentially lead to an escalation of the already tense situation. With Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, set to deliver a significant speech on Friday, intelligence officials will closely monitor it in search of any indications of the group's intentions, according to one official.

CNNs Oren Liebermann contributed reporting.