Unveiling the Untold Truth: Will Trump's Rivals Make the Same Debate Blunders Again?

The candidates participating in this week's second Republican presidential debate are confronted with a unique dilemma: how to confront a front-runner who is absent from the stage and already assuming the role of the nominee. Former President Donald Trump's stance was demonstrated by his choice to deliver a speech resembling a general election event in Michigan instead of attending the debate.

Trumps inclination to overlook the primary, even before it officially begins, partly stems from his commanding lead in national polls. It also stems from the inability of other candidates to develop a strong argument that could pose a threat to him. This inability was evident during the first debate, which he chose to skip, as most of the candidates largely disregarded him.

"The greatest advantage Trump has is that none of his opponents are executing a strategy to defeat him," stated Mike Murphy, a seasoned GOP strategist who has emerged as a frequent critic of Trump. "None of the major contenders. They are simply imitating Trump."

The key question for the second debate might revolve around whether any candidate can capitalize on Trump's absence and present a more compelling argument against him, potentially forcing him to reconsider his strategy of disregarding the other candidates. "I can understand why he chose not to participate in the second debate," remarked Murphy. "If they're not willing to engage with him and simply try to imitate him, then there's no need for him to be present."

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.

Reuters

Trump and Biden's visits to Michigan will showcase different strategies to win over union voters.

During the first debate, Trump received very little attention from the candidates. Co-moderator Bret Baier accurately described Trump as "the elephant not in the room." Former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey and Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas argued, as usual, that Trump was not fit for the presidency. Additionally, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley questioned Trump's ability to win a general election, referring to him as "the most disliked politician in America." Haley, who previously served in his Cabinet as ambassador to the United Nations, also criticized Trump for the increase in national debt during his term.

Apart from Christie and Hutchinson, all of the candidates expressed their support for Trump as the potential nominee, despite the 91 felony criminal charges he is facing. Instead of offering any reasons for GOP voters to reconsider their support, the candidates mainly focused on sparring with each other throughout the 90-minute encounter. This was seen as a missed opportunity for those Republicans skeptical of Trump, who believed that the candidates should have used the nationally televised forum to introduce themselves to voters. "The best argument for their behavior is that American voters need to know who they are," explained Dave Wilson, a prominent social conservative activist in South Carolina, which holds the third primary on the GOP calendar.

The GOP circles suggest that Trump's limited involvement in the debate discussion is because other candidates are repeating the same mistake made by his opponents in 2016. During that race, the primary field refrained from directly attacking him and instead concentrated on outdoing one another to establish themselves as the primary alternative who would potentially benefit if Trump were to fail on his own.

Observing the first debate of 2024, many viewers perceived this year's group of Trump competitors to be engaged in similar wishful thinking - or even running merely to enhance their prospects of being chosen as Trump's vice presidential nominee.

Despite their deferential posture towards Trump at the first debate, Trump's rivals have little to demonstrate if their genuine intention is to win the nomination. Trump continues to maintain a historically significant lead in national polls, which, according to some indications, may have even slightly increased.

Trump's actions have also offered insights. Since the debate, he has made more explicit gestures indicating his efforts to position himself for a hypothetical general election matchup against President Joe Biden. "Based on what we are witnessing, the only logical conclusion to draw is that," asserts Matt Mackowiak, a GOP strategist based in Texas.

According to CNN, Trump is continuing to campaign in the early primary states, although not as frequently as his competitors. He recently made appearances in South Carolina and Iowa. However, he chose to skip a debate in favor of giving a speech to blue-collar workers in Michigan. It is speculated that Michigan will play a significant role in determining the winner of the general election.

During a recent interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," Trump made comments about abortion. While some may argue that his stance deviates from Republican beliefs, a careful analysis reveals that he still supports a national abortion ban. The only question left unanswered is at what stage of pregnancy he would accept a national limit, as he mentioned that a specific number of weeks or months would need to be determined.

Trump specifically criticized the six-week abortion ban signed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. It is worth noting that Republican governors in Iowa and South Carolina, two of the early voting states that have historically determined the GOP nomination, have also signed similar "heartbeat" bans.

With these remarks, Trump appeared to be making a strategic move that demonstrates his confidence in winning the nomination. Evangelical Christians make up a significant portion of GOP voters in Iowa and South Carolina, particularly in Iowa where they have consistently propelled socially conservative candidates to victory, such as Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, and Ted Cruz in 2016. Trump's public disapproval of the six-week abortion ban in these states suggests that he may be willing to take the risk of losing the Iowa caucuses in order to enhance his chances in the general election. According to Mackowiak, "It seems that way to me at the moment."

It is uncertain how much impact Trump's comments on abortion will have on his social conservative supporters, considering that his strong bonds with his voters are primarily based on issues of racial identity and anti-elite populism, rather than traditional social issues. While some core conservative pro-lifers are upset by his remarks, the average Donald Trump supporter may not be significantly influenced. However, it is likely that Trump will face more criticism on the topic during the upcoming debate, as his rivals, particularly DeSantis, prefer attacking him from a right-leaning perspective, accusing him of not being conservative enough. This gives them a clear opportunity to challenge Trump's stance on anti-abortion, if they choose to do so.

In a GOP primary, Trump's rivals, particularly DeSantis, face a challenging question: would they benefit or lose more by positioning themselves to the right of Trump on abortion? It may be an irresistible move for DeSantis at this week's debate. Following the strategies employed by Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz, DeSantis has immersed himself in the state of Florida, tirelessly campaigning and focusing on garnering support from evangelical Christians, highlighting his social conservative values.

Despite Trump's significant lead in most Iowa polls, past examples suggest that it is not implausible for DeSantis (or perhaps another candidate) to consolidate support in the final stages and surpass him in the caucus.

The flaw with that approach, however, is that despite their victories in Iowa, Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz were unable to secure the GOP nomination. As previously mentioned, none of them were able to win more than a handful of states. They all faced the same fundamental challenge: once labeled as the favored candidate among evangelical Christians, they struggled to gain widespread support from GOP voters outside that specific community. This difficulty became evident immediately in New Hampshire, the following primary contest after Iowa, where none of these three individuals managed to secure more than 12% of the vote from a less evangelical-heavy electorate. Trump's team may be gambling on the scenario that even if DeSantis surpasses him in Iowa using the Huckabee/Santorum/Cruz strategy, he will quickly encounter the same obstacle.

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks during the Pray Vote Stand Summit on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Jose Luis Magana/AP

Vivek Ramaswamy gained attention during last month's debate, but can he sustain his momentum?

According to Murphy, the key to defeating Trump is both simple and challenging: winning in Iowa and New Hampshire. Running a campaign similar to Santorum's, which failed in New Hampshire, is not an option. The goal is to emerge victorious in both states.

DeSantis' Iowa-first strategy may have potential limitations, making Haley the candidate to watch this week, as she generated the most positive momentum from the first debate. While entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy also gained attention, his aggressive performance may have hindered his potential support.

Haley's relatively moderate stance on abortion makes it unlikely for her to win the Iowa caucus. Despite personally supporting abortion restrictions, she acknowledges the lack of congressional votes for a national ban. However, if Haley performs well enough in Iowa and gains momentum, she may have a more viable path forward compared to Trump's other competitors in the upcoming critical states.

Haley's advantage over DeSantis and other rivals, according to Republican pollster Whit Ayres, is her lack of rigid adherence to a particular ideology. This makes her a strong contender to build on a successful showing in Iowa and make an impact in New Hampshire. Ayres suggests that even a second or third-place finish in Iowa could give Haley the momentum she needs to succeed in the different political landscape of New Hampshire.

A recent poll conducted by CNN and the University of New Hampshire placed Haley in a competitive position, alongside DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and Christie, as the second-place choice behind Trump. If Haley performs well in New Hampshire, she can rely on her natural support base in South Carolina, which is the next state on the electoral calendar. A Fox News poll conducted after the first debate showed Haley overtaking DeSantis to become the clear second-place preference in South Carolina, a state she previously governed from 2011 to 2017.

PICTURE - On Friday, September 15, 2023, in Washington, former President Donald Trump delivers a speech during a Concerned Women for America Summit at the Capitol Hilton. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

Andrew Harnik/AP

Why New Hampshire is the most likely state where Trump could lose a primary

If Haley were to become Trump's main opponent after the first three states, she would need to overcome the challenge of appealing to a wider range of voters beyond the moderate and college-educated ones who currently make up her support base. Recent evidence suggests that Trump has attracted even more non-college educated voters, which poses a larger problem for Haley. Ultimately, finishing in second place doesn't hold much significance if Trump maintains a substantial lead.

Most of Trump's rivals have already ruled out many of the direct arguments they could make against him. Aside from Christie, Hutchinson, and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd, they have dismissed the notion that Trump's behavior following the 2020 election should disqualify him from the presidency. By echoing Trump's claim that the criminal indictments against him are politically motivated, they have discouraged GOP voters from considering those charges as disqualifying factors. Additionally, the argument that Trump is not electable in a general election has been weakened by President Biden's current vulnerability in polls, which consistently show a close race between the two men.

However, there are other arguments that are less divisive for a GOP audience, according to many of Trump's Republican critics. Ayres points out that the other candidates could even commend Trump's performance as president but emphasize the need for a nominee who focuses on the future rather than the past and isn't consumed by personal grievances. Haley has come closest to delivering this message, although her main focus has been on convincing voters that Trump is unelectable rather than arguing that he is no longer the right person for the job.

Mackowiak argues that the candidates' deference towards Trump during the first debate reflected the GOP's belief that attacking him would only harm themselves and benefit others in the field who avoid confrontation. However, the problem lies in the fact that while this strategy may be rational for each individual candidate, collectively it is irrational. As the first votes draw nearer, no one is making a sustained case against a front-runner who is dominating all of them. The Republicans chasing after the former president will only have a limited number of opportunities to appeal to a large national audience before the voting begins in Iowa and New Hampshire next winter. If they allow this debate to pass without forcefully challenging Trump, many Republican strategists believe they will surely regret it.

"As Yogi Berra once said," Mackowiak notes, "it is starting to get late early out here."