Unveiling the Untold Story: The Surprising Calmness on the Israel-Lebanon Border

The silence along the border between Lebanon and Israel is overwhelming. Despite five days of intense exchanges of fire between Lebanese fighters and Israeli forces, it appears that the guns have mostly fallen silent.

This border remains a critical and precarious fault line in this unstable region. After the unexpected attacks by Hamas on Israel on October 7, this previously calm border, which had not witnessed significant conflict since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, has become even more fraught with significance.

Any conflict arising here could worsen the ongoing Hamas-Israel war by involving Iran-backed Hezbollah, the most influential paramilitary group in the Middle East.

Hezbollah, known for its unequivocal support for Palestinian militants, has actively organized rallies in solidarity with Palestinian groups and strongly criticized Israel's extensive airstrikes in Gaza.

Since Saturday, over 1,500 individuals have lost their lives due to Israeli strikes on Gaza. In the case of Hamas attacks on Israel, the death toll has surpassed 1,200. However, there remains uncertainty regarding Hezbollah's active involvement in this conflict. Thus far, Hezbollah has followed its existing rules of engagement and consistently emphasized that it will retaliate against Israel solely when Lebanese territory or its fighters are attacked. Despite escalating tensions, Hezbollah has largely adhered to this stance.

Skirmishes in this area can be viewed as a series of retaliatory exchanges that have persisted since the onset of the Hamas-Israel conflict. Over the past few days, Palestinian militants based in Lebanon have been launching rockets into Israel, prompting Israeli counterattacks on Lebanese soil, which have targeted Hezbollah locations. In response, Hezbollah has retaliated by firing precision-guided missiles at Israeli border positions.

United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers patrol a border wall with Israel in Kfar Kila, Lebanon on October 9, 2023.

Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP via Getty Images

Three Hezbollah militants and three Israeli soldiers lost their lives during the ongoing week-long exchange of gunfire. Up until now, Hezbollah has refrained from intervening in support of the Palestinian militants. The group has clearly linked its assaults on Israel to the Israeli forces' actions targeting Lebanese land. It is important to note that the clashes are confined to this particular border area.

However, the region teeters on the brink of turmoil.

Various reports indicate that Western diplomats have been actively working to prevent the involvement of the Shia armed group in the escalating conflict. To discourage this possibility, the US has deployed the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford in the eastern Mediterranean, a move perceived by analysts as an effort to dissuade any potential escalation that could lead to a significantly bloodier phase of the war.

Unlike Hamas, Hezbollah holds significant regional influence. Over the years, it has actively engaged in numerous conflicts across the Middle East, notably in Iraq and Syria. Evidence suggests that Hezbollah has provided substantial support and training to Houthi rebels in Yemen. Moreover, their fighters have gained extensive experience through battles fought alongside Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces against armed opposition groups within Syria, as well as against ISIS and the al-Qaeda affiliate known as the Nusra front. Consequently, Hezbollah has honed their military skills, particularly in urban warfare.

Hezbollah senior official Sayyed Hashem Safieddine speaks as supporters of Lebanon's Hezbollahattend a rally in Beirut on October 8, 2023 to express solidarity with Palestinians.

Emilie Madi/Reuters

Hezbollah now possesses a much more advanced arsenal compared to its weaponry used during the 2006 war with Israel. This conflict resulted in no clear victor or loser, although Lebanon suffered significant destruction. Despite this, Hezbollah successfully thwarted Israel's attempt to dismantle the group, damaging Israel's perception of invincibility. In the past, Hezbollah relied mainly on imprecise Katyusha rockets of Soviet origin. Presently, they possess precision-guided missiles.

Furthermore, Hezbollah's involvement in the current conflict could introduce more advanced weapons and fighters. Additionally, Hezbollah is a member of a coalition of Iran-backed fighters who remain stationed in Syria. This participation could potentially create a third front along the Syria-Israel border, alongside Iran's esteemed Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) who are also present in Syria.

Diplomats and observers from various backgrounds will closely monitor the situation in this region until the Hamas-Israel conflict is resolved. Since the start of the hostilities in the south, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has remained unusually silent, contributing to the strange juxtaposition of relative tranquility and intense tension. The calmness observed on the Lebanon-Israel border on Thursdays, occasionally disturbed by Israel intercepting rockets from Palestinian militants, raises numerous inquiries. Is the escalation here coming to a temporary pause, or is it merely the calm before a significant regional crisis?