Summary
Whether Young Griff is really Aegon Targaryen is one of the biggest mysteries for The Winds of Winter, even though Game of Thrones cut the character.
Varys' insistence on Young Griff being Aegon Targaryen, along with Tyrion Lannister's deduction of his true identity, and George R.R. Martin's hints at his potential survival, leave room for the possibility that he is indeed the genuine article. Additionally, there are indications that Young Griff may be a fraud, as prophecies have issued warnings. Ultimately, though, the veracity of Young Griff's claim hinges upon the beliefs and convictions of the people of Westeros.
The true identity of Young Griff, also known as Aegon Targaryen, is a major question that remains unanswered in The Winds of Winter. In A Dance with Dragons, George R.R. Martin revealed that Aegon Targaryen, the eldest son of Rhaegar Targaryen, had survived and prepared himself to claim the throne with a formidable army. However, doubts persist regarding his authenticity.
In Game of Thrones, the character of Young Griff/Aegon Targaryen was omitted to streamline the storyline and prevent confusion when the true identity of Rhaegar's secret son, Jon Snow (who was given the name Aegon Targaryen), was revealed. By excluding Young Griff, the entire narrative of Game of Thrones, including its conclusion, remained unaffected. However, The Winds of Winter does not have the same luxury and must ultimately resolve the debate surrounding Young Griff's true identity.
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Why Young Griff Really Could Be Aegon Targaryen
There is currently no solid evidence disproving Young Griff's claim to being Aegon Targaryen, which contradicts the facts that support his identity. Even George R.R. Martin himself, when questioned about the fate of Rhaegar and Elia Martel's children, replied with emphasis: "All I can say is that there is no doubt that little Princess Rhaenys was pulled out from beneath her father's bed and killed." [via So Spake Martin]
Varys strongly believes that Young Griff is actually Aegon Targaryen. While it's possible that Varys is lying as part of his and Illyrio Mopatis' plan, what's interesting is that he reveals this to Kevan Lannister moments before killing him. Since there is no way for Kevan to survive, Varys has no reason to lie about Aegon's existence and his preparation for rule since Robert's Rebellion. It's plausible that Varys is simply maintaining his facade consistently, but there is also enough evidence to accept his claim at face value.
Furthermore, it is significant to note that the only other person who recognizes Young Griff as Aegon is Tyrion Lannister, who discovers the truth while journeying with him. Tyrion, a character favored by Martin, is consistently portrayed as intelligent and astute. While it's not impossible for him to be completely deceived, it would be surprising for him to be so drastically mistaken. Unlike his sister Rhaenys, Aegon's body was unable to be identified after being slain by the Mountain, which suggests that there is a genuine possibility that Young Griff is indeed Aegon.
Clues That Young Griff Is Actually A Fake
The arrival of Aegon Targaryen, a long-considered deceased prince, in the fifth book of A Song of Ice and Fire, raises doubts. His absence from Game of Thrones suggests that he may not play a significant role in the endgame, aligning with the theory that he is a counterfeit Aegon. The plausibility of a baby switch plot is questionable, given the considerable effort and implausible foresight that Varys would have required. Additionally, there are indications in Daenerys Targaryen's narrative that Aegon is a fraud. Quaithe's warning to Dany about the "mummer's dragon" implies that either Aegon is masquerading as a dragon or he is a dragon associated with a mummer. The mention of a "cloth dragon" in the House of the Undying may also allude to Aegon's deception, and Dany learns through a set of prophecies called "slayer of lies" that she must conquer those who claim to be her rightful successors.
If Young Griff Isn’t Aegon Targaryen, Who Is He?
That entire argument presents a compelling case, even though it may not be entirely conclusive. Moreover, considering Jon Snow's true parentage, it is highly likely that the R+L=J theory, just like in Game of Thrones, will prove to be true in the books. Revealing another son of Rhaegar would undermine the power of that narrative arc. However, introducing Young Groff as the opposite of Jon seems sensible: a boy with no noble lineage, who is probably a bastard, being raised to believe that he is the legitimate Targaryen heir provides a fascinating parallel to Jon Snow's story and makes much more logical sense as a storytelling choice.Apart from actually being Aegon Targaryen, the prevailing belief is that Young Griff is a Blackfyre, a cadet branch of House Targaryen. Founded by a bastard of King Aegon IV, this lineage is widely believed to be extinct in the Game of Thrones timeline. Given Young Griff's Valyrian features, it is reasonable to assume some Targaryen ancestry, and being a covert Blackfyre seems to be the most plausible explanation.
The reason the Golden Company works for him could be explained by their founding by another of Aegon IV’s illegitimate children. They fought against the Targaryens in numerous rebellions and rejected Viserys Targaryen. This choice to support Aegon adds credibility to the theory that he is a Blackfyre. The Blackfyre lineage was believed to have ended in the male line, so it is possible that it continued through a female line to the boy known as "Aegon".
If he is not a Blackfyre, there are other possibilities for Young Griff. One option is that he is the son of Illyrio, which would explain the strong support from both him and Varys in placing Young Griff on the Iron Throne. Illyrio previously had a wife with Valyrian features, so it is plausible that Young Griff could be their child. Illyrio also has the means to provide him with the upbringing and training fit for a future king. Another possibility is that Young Griff is simply an unknown boy with some Valyrian blood and the right physical traits, chosen as a pawn in Varys and Illyrio's plot.
Will It Actually Matter If Young Griff Is The Real Aegon Targaryen Or Not?
The true identity of Young Griff is highly debated, but surprisingly, this may not ultimately be of great importance. Varys highlights that power is determined by perception. If Young Griff bears a resemblance to Aegon, behaves like Aegon, and no one can prove otherwise, he stands a strong chance of claiming the Iron Throne and earning the love of the people. However, this sets the stage for a conflict with Daenerys, and given her significance as a character, Young Griff is likely to be defeated.
Young Griff serves as a catalyst for Daenerys' storyline: upon arriving in Westeros to assert her rightful claim, she discovers that another Targaryen has already taken the throne, which could drive her towards the same path of becoming the "Mad Queen" seen in Game of Thrones season 8. Whether or not the truth about Young Griff is revealed, it may matter less than what people believe and the events that unfold between him and Daenerys in The Winds of Winter.