Unveiling the Shocking Reasons Behind Risky New City Developments Amidst Increasing Flood Threats
As urbanization accelerates, countries increasingly opt to construct new cities in flood-prone regions, a trend highlighted by recent research However, this approach raises concerns regarding the heightened vulnerability of residents to climate-related disasters
Rapid urbanization is leading to a significant increase in construction in areas prone to flooding, raising alarm about the vulnerability of people to disasters amid the escalating climate crisis. A recent study published in the journal Nature reveals that between 1985 and 2015, the number of settlements at the greatest risk of flooding, ranging from small villages to sprawling mega-cities, surged by 122%.
Paolo Avner, senior economist at the World Bank and lead author of the study, expressed concern over the fact that instead of adapting to climate change, many countries are actually increasing their vulnerability to floods. Avner emphasized that this is particularly alarming considering the intensification of flood disasters worldwide due to climate change. To gain insight into the populations most impacted by flood risk, researchers analyzed global flood hazard datasets and annual settlement footprint data spanning the years 1985 to 2015.
A flooded street in New York City is captured in this image, where a police officer from the NYPD Highway Patrol is seen observing motorists navigating through the water. The heavy rains caused by the remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia have led to widespread flooding across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions. The photograph was taken on September 29, 2023, near the Williamsburg Bridge on the FDR Drive in Manhattan. The image is credited to REUTERS/Andrew Kelly.
Andrew Kelly/Reuters
Record rain in New York City generates 'life-threatening' flooding, overwhelming streets and subways
During this period, it was discovered that urbanization occurred at a much faster rate in high-hazard flood zones compared to areas with low flood risk, as the world's settlements grew by 85%. According to the report, in 2015, over 11% of built-up areas worldwide were exposed to high or very high flood risk, indicating the vulnerability of these areas to flooding depths of at least 50 cm (17 inches) during 1-in-100-year flooding events.
According to the report, vulnerability to coastal flooding is increasing at a faster pace compared to other types of flooding. The researchers have concluded that flood risks are significant in all regions and income groups, although some face higher risks than others. The report highlights that East Asia and the Pacific region have the highest exposure to flooding, while North America and sub-Saharan Africa have the lowest.
The report discovered that upper-middle income countries had the highest percentage of new human settlements in areas with a high risk of flooding. This was primarily due to China, which has rapidly urbanized and is responsible for almost half of all new settlements built in high flood hazard zones from 1985 to 2015.
In contrast, higher income countries experienced relatively slow growth in flood-prone areas during the 30-year period. However, countries such as the US, Japan, and the Netherlands already had a significant number of settlements in high-risk flood zones before 1985. As a result, they have had to allocate significant resources to protect these areas.
Why choose to build in flood zones?
There are many reasons why the amount of building on land vulnerable to flooding is shooting up, but scarcity is a major driver.
New development in floodplains and other areas previously avoided is becoming disproportionate as safer land is mostly already built on. The report revealed that in Vietnam, where approximately a third of coastal land is developed, new developments are being compelled to occupy hazardous land.
Municipal workers clean up the streets after waters receded in the old city of Hoi An on October 30, 2020, in the aftermath of Typhoon Molave.
Major port cities, beachfront communities, and tourist areas are often believed to have greater economic potential despite the looming risk of disaster. This is often because of various factors, including inadequate flood data, improper urban planning, or ineffective regulation.
Southwest Florida, vulnerable to more intense hurricanes, has experienced rapid population growth due to its favorable climate and affordable cost of living. This growth occurred as the state relaxed building regulations in both high-risk and low-lying regions.
The report proposes several recommendations for policymakers and planners, comprising investments in disaster preparedness, implementation of early warning systems, and development of evacuation plans for areas already facing high flood risk. Additionally, there is a need to reassess land use plans and building codes in regions where the risk is escalating.
Robert Nicholls, a climate adaptation professor at the University of East Anglia who was not part of the research, praised the study's strong methodology and described its findings as "new yet expected." According to Nicholls, there is typically a great emphasis on the occurrence of "more intense or frequent floods." However, he explained to CNN that the risk of flooding is also influenced by changes in exposure and vulnerability. If these factors increase, so does the risk of flooding. The study demonstrates a notable increase in exposure, Nicholls further noted.
"This is concerning as development patterns are enhancing risk without climate change - climate change will further exacerbate these risks in the future."
