Unveiling the Inner Politics of China: Insights Into Xi Jinping's Reign

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As he entered his unprecedented third term, Xi Jinping filled key positions in China's leadership with trusted allies, aiming to facilitate the realization of his ambitious vision for the nation.

Since less than a year ago, a wave of turmoil has engulfed the carefully selected ruling elite of Xi Jinping, casting doubt on his decision-making abilities and undermining international confidence in his governance. This comes at a time when China is already grappling with significant economic challenges domestically and facing heightened competition from the United States on the global stage.

Remarkably, within a few months, two high-ranking officials in China's cabinet, who played crucial roles as intermediaries with the international community, have mysteriously disappeared. Defense Minister Li Shangfu has not made a public appearance in three weeks, leading to speculations that he is being investigated. Furthermore, Foreign Minister Qin Gang was abruptly ousted after vanishing from the public eye for a month.

Xi's recent effort to enhance national security has prompted the sudden absence of Li and Qin, who are regarded as potential threats or vulnerabilities. As part of China's cabinet, both individuals hold prestigious positions as state councillors, surpassing the rank of ordinary ministers. Additionally, Li is a member of the Central Military Commission, a powerful entity under Xi's leadership responsible for commanding the country's armed forces.

The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, an elite unit established by Xi to modernize China's conventional and nuclear missile capabilities, has been shaken by the sudden removal of two top generals. This has led to concerns of a wider military purge. Despite the rampant speculation, the Chinese government, which has become increasingly secretive under Xi, has provided little public explanation for these personnel changes.

According to sources familiar with the matter, an international Communist Party investigation has revealed that while serving as China's envoy to Washington, Qin was involved in an extramarital affair. The Wall Street Journal reported this development on Tuesday. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has elected not to provide any comments on the report. The undisclosed outcomes involving these two prominent ministers have harmed Beijing's global reputation, as it has long promoted its political model as being more stable and effective compared to Western democracies.

China's ruling elite's increasing uncertainty has laid bare the weaknesses of its one-party system, which have been further magnified by Xi's consolidation of personal authority during his third term. "The current situation in China is a clear indication of the significant political risk originating from Beijing," stated Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore.

The political risk arises from the dynamics between Xi Jinping and the subordinates he has personally chosen, as well as the absence of established rules and norms governing behavior within the system. Li, who holds the position of defense minister, primarily performs ceremonial duties in the Chinese system and does not have direct control over combat forces. However, he plays a crucial role in representing China's military diplomacy to the international community, according to James Char, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"If Li Shangfu indeed encounters difficulties, Beijing will be seen in a highly unfavorable light due to the prompt removal of two state councillors during Xi Jinping's third term," he commented.

Since his appointment in March, Li has made two trips to Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart, paid a visit to the Belarus president in Minsk, and had a handshake with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a security conference in Singapore.

Li has been absent from various important diplomatic events in recent weeks, such as the annual border defense meeting with Vietnamese officials and a meeting with Singapores Navy Chief in Beijing. However, experts have pointed out a positive aspect to his mysterious absence, suggesting that it could potentially contribute to the stabilization of US-China relations.

Li faced sanctions in 2018 from the US due to China's acquisition of Russian weapons. Beijing has consistently hinted that a meeting with Li would not be granted unless the sanctions were lifted. If Li were to be ousted as defense minister, it may create an opportunity for the US and China to resume discussions at the highest military level.

China's Defence Minister Li Shangfu gives a speech during the Moscow Conference on International Security on August 15.

Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images/File

Xi could not escape the blame

Analysts suggest that Xis loyalists facing potential downfall would have a negative impact on the top leader given his unparalleled power and decision-making authority, which is unprecedented in recent decades in China.

According to Deng Yuwen, a former editor of a Communist Party newspaper currently residing in the US, the fact that two state councillors, who were solely appointed by Xi, encountered issues within just six months implies that Xi cannot evade responsibility, despite the authorities' vigorous attempts to defend or justify the situation.

Questions will arise within the party regarding the individuals he has appointed to significant positions, even prompting Rahm Emanuel, the US ambassador to Japan, to draw a parallel between Xi's cabinet arrangement and Agatha Christie's novel "And Then There Were None."

"Who will emerge victorious in the unemployment race: China's youth or Xi's cabinet?" the ambassador posted on X, the platform formerly referred to as Twitter.

China is currently facing a range of economic challenges, including skyrocketing youth unemployment, mounting local government debt, and an escalating property crisis. Analysts have pointed out that the increasing uncertainty within Xi's governing circle could potentially trigger a crisis of trust in the world's second-largest economy.

X's recent purge at a senior level highlights his conviction that a nation's strength lies in ideological unity rather than economic success or perceived military strength. This perspective is derived from the lessons drawn from the collapse of the Soviet Union," stated Craig Singleton, a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington DC.

Although L's removal may not have a significant impact on China's state relations, it will undoubtedly deepen the growing apprehensions within the international business community regarding excessive party control and diminishing transparency in China.

Fighting corruption

Military leader Li, 65, cut his teeth at one of Chinas main satellite-launch sites in the southwestern province of Sichuan, rising through the ranks to become its director.

After working at the launch center for thirty years, he was promoted to the armaments division of the PLA's headquarters in 2013, shortly after Xi came into power.

Li is thought to be a protégé of General Zhang Youxia, who was Xi's childhood friend and most trusted ally in the military. As a demonstration of his importance, Zhang was elevated to the position of first vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) during the leadership reshuffle in October, even though he had already surpassed the unofficial retirement age.

Starting in 2017 and lasting until 2022, Li directed China's weapon procurement in his capacity as the head of the CMC's Equipment Development Department, a position formerly held by Zhang.

In July, shortly before the abrupt removal of the top two generals at the Rocket Force, the Equipment Development Department launched a new initiative to combat corrupt procurement practices. They urged individuals to share information regarding suspicious activities that occurred as far back as 2017, which aligns with the period when Li assumed leadership of the department.

Xi Jinping has been implementing a relentless anti-corruption campaign since assuming power, leading to the prosecution of numerous high-ranking officials, generals, and a significant number of lower-level cadres. Thompson, a researcher at the National University of Singapore, pointed out that even after a decade, Xi continues to combat corruption, disloyalty, and expresses worries about the army's allegiance to the party.

Such purges will keep happening

Xi, who has already accumulated more power than any other Chinese leader in recent decades, is intensifying his efforts to strengthen his control over the party and the military. In the midst of rumors about the defense minister's whereabouts, Xi emphasized the importance of unity and stability in the military during an inspection in China's northeast last week.

Thompson stated that the campaign is driven by the lack of political trust among individuals in the system.

Following Xi, other Chinese leaders, such as Chairman Mao Zedong, have also turned against their own circle of trusted allies after gaining unparalleled personal power. Mao purged many of his allies in the Cultural Revolution.

Char, an expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, cautioned that despite recent political shake-ups, it does not indicate that Xi is losing his hold on power.

"The mere ability to dismiss anyone of his choosing speaks volumes about the level of control Xi has attained," Char explained.

However, he observed that the vanishing of Li and Qin serves as an indication of China's centralized one-party rule.

"I strongly believe that as long as Xi Jinping lacks the courage to overhaul the entire political system, such purges will continue to occur."

CNNs Simone McCarthy contributed reporting.