Unveiling the East's Bold Perspective: China's Surprising Outlook on a Stronger Russia and North Korea

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The recent meeting between Vladimir Putin of Russia and Kim Jong Un of North Korea at a space launch center in the Russian Far East has raised concerns among various countries. South Korea, Japan, Ukraine, the United States, and its European allies all share this alarm.

China, being the primary economic support system for both Moscow and Pyongyang, with a border that is less than 200 miles (321 kilometers) away from the meeting point of the two leaders, may hold a contrasting perspective. Analysts suggest that instead of attempting to hinder or restrict the collaboration between Russia and North Korea, Beijing might perceive numerous advantages and minimal risks for its own benefit, particularly concerning its ongoing power struggle with the United States.

It is uncertain how much Chinese officials are aware of the negotiations between North Korea and Russia. However, analysts suggest that the meeting may not have taken place without some recognition of China's relationship with both countries.

Due to the significant support that China offers to both nations, it is undoubtedly a key factor to consider," commented Alexander Korolev, a senior lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of New South Wales in Australia.

"China holds immense significance for both North Korea and Russia, making it unwise for them to engage in any actions without considering China's interests," he expressed. "The omnipresence of the China factor cannot be ignored."

Between the two countries

Neither North Korea nor Russia has disclosed any information regarding the agreements achieved during the extensive meeting between Putin and Kim that lasted for over five hours. The discussions took place during a visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome, followed by closed-door talks and a grand state dinner, where both leaders celebrated the strengthening friendship between their countries. However, it is evident to observers what each nation seeks from the other.

Moscow urgently needs new ammunition and shells to sustain the ongoing attritional warfare in Ukraine, and it is believed that Pyongyang possesses a substantial stockpile. Following years of sanctions due to its nuclear weapons and missile programs, North Korea requires various resources such as energy, food, and military technology, all of which Russia can provide.

However, the potential scenario of North Korea supplying ammunition to Russia could create awkward diplomatic implications for China. As China is the main trading partner of North Korea and holds significant diplomatic power in relation to Russia, this situation arises particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This image, released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency, depicts a conversation between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russia's President Vladimir Putin during their visit to Russia on September 13, 2023.

KCNA/Reuters

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For years, the international community has relied on Beijing to persuade its government to abide by the regulations.

Lately, Beijing has been striving to position itself as an advocator of peace in the Ukraine conflict. This endeavor is aimed at regaining the trust of Europe, which has reacted negatively to Beijing's choice of strengthening its relationship with Russia despite the ongoing war.

Beijing has already indicated its official stance on any military cooperation between the two countries. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly emphasized that Wednesday's meeting is solely "between the two countries," implying that it is not within China's purview. However, experts believe that while China is cautious about providing significant military assistance to Russia, it may view potential support from North Korea as advantageous for its own geopolitical considerations. Russia continues to be a vital partner for China, particularly amidst escalating tensions with Western nations.

Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of international relations at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, stated that if North Korea is genuinely willing to supply ammunition to Russia, it would be beneficial for Chinese interests as it would help prevent a significant military setback for Russia in the Ukrainian battlefield. This situation would favor China's geopolitical interests, particularly in terms of relations with both Russia and Western countries.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and North Korean counterpart Kim Jong Un pictured during a visit from Xi to Pyongyang in 2019.

Shen Hong/Xinhua/Getty Images

Balance of power

China, a supporter of communist North Korea during the Korean War approximately 70 years ago, has maintained a complex relationship with its unpredictable neighboring nation. Similar to Russia, China has supported previous United Nations sanctions concerning North Korea's weapons programs, although it has been criticized for inconsistently enforcing these measures. In recent years, China has obstructed attempts to reinforce sanctions and has spearheaded initiatives to mitigate their impact.

Analysts suggest that due to the perceived hostility from the US and its allies, China might find it favorable to enhance coordination with Russia and North Korea as a means of balance. Consequently, if Moscow decides to lend support to Pyongyang, it could alleviate pressure on China and bolster its regional influence.

Li stated that China would provide support to a stronger North Korea in various aspects such as economy and military, with the intention of causing trouble for the US. One of the reasons behind this is that a more aggressive North Korea would compel the US and South Korea to seek China's cooperation in addressing the North Korean issue, he explained.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Amur province, Russia on September 13, 2023.

Kremlin

Putin talks military cooperation with Kim as North Korean leader endorses Russia's war on Ukraine

Mutual support between the two neighboring countries facing sanctions could alleviate international pressure on China regarding its strong connections with both nations. According to Yun Sun, Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, this support from other countries reduces China's isolation and, despite potential drawbacks for Beijing, its leaders would view it as a positive outcome.

According to Sun, there could be a potential positive aspect in the transfer of military technology from Russia to North Korea, despite China's concern regarding regional stability and its own interests. China is invested in preventing the escalation of tensions between North Korea and South Korea, which could lead to a conflict that would not only result in an influx of refugees across its borders but also provoke a military response from the United States.

The transfer of such military technology will have a destabilizing effect on the region. However, China will shift blame onto the US and its allies, accusing them of cornering Russia and North Korea. This further reinforces China's opposition to the US-led Asian NATO. Nevertheless, experts caution that China is not exempt from the risks posed by a more powerful Russia or North Korea.

According to Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, Beijing has a significant interest in global trade and cannot afford to be negatively affected by the destabilizing actions of pariah states like the invasion of Ukraine and incessant threats of nuclear weapon use.