Unveiling the Alarming Risks: How Climate Change Imperils the World's Most Prized Real Estate

Previously, the luxurious properties on the Redhill Peninsula were seen as a peaceful retreat for wealthy Hong Kong residents looking to escape the crowded city life of 7.5 million people. Situated on cliffs overlooking the South China Sea, these homes offered ideal Feng Shui and provided an ideal sanctuary from the fast-paced urban environment. The gated community attracted tycoons, expatriates, and celebrities seeking respite from the hustle and bustle.

On September 8, a storm unleashed the heaviest rainfall Hong Kong has seen in nearly 140 years, causing widespread destruction throughout the city. This previously picturesque location became a curse, resulting in two fatalities and over a hundred injuries. The torrential rain, measuring an astonishing 600mm (23.6 inches), inundated metro stations and transformed roads into flowing streams.

The chaos extended beyond the inundated lowlands. Along the precipice that separated the Redhill Peninsula from the ocean below, the soil eroded, posing a grave threat to three opulent residences teetering perilously on the brink. As a result, an evacuation was deemed necessary.

Drainage workers assist a driver stranded due to flooding to a safe place, during heavy rain in Hong Kong, China September 8, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Tyrone Siu/Reuters

Hong Kong came to a standstill due to flash flooding caused by the most significant rainfall since 1884. This occurrence followed the city's previous scorching summer, marking a clear indication of the dangers of climate change and its resulting severe weather patterns.

However, for those living in the Redhill Peninsula, it served as a stark reminder that climate change is reshaping the standards for what constitutes a "safe" structure. This incident also highlighted that even the most expensive and meticulously built homes are not immune to vulnerability. In fact, for some, it may have been a realization that such regulations even exist. Local authorities are currently looking into potential building code breaches in certain houses, which may further strengthen the belief that the wealthy do not abide by the same rules as the less fortunate.

Experts predict that regardless of the findings of ongoing investigations, occurrences of extreme weather events similar to the one observed on September 8 will increase in frequency. Unfortunately, both wealthy and impoverished individuals will be affected by the consequences, irrespective of their resources, with the affluent having a greater capacity to recover from these disasters compared to the less privileged. Benny Chan, President of the Hong Kong Institute of Architects, emphasizes that due to Hong Kong's historical vulnerability to typhoons and heavy rainfall, the city has accumulated substantial expertise in constructing cliffside dwellings.

The Redhill Peninsula, known for its strict safety regulations specifically tailored to prevent landslides, was considered a secure location in stormy weather, until recently. However, experts assert that the previous guidelines may no longer be applicable.

Houses at the Redhill Peninsula, a luxurious residential estate in the Tai Tam area of Hong Kong, on September 13.

Chris Lau/CNN

A sensitive issue

Investing in the Redhill Peninsula, one of the priciest neighborhoods in one of the world's most expensive property markets, may lead to an uncomfortable realization. These properties exude the same allure and prestige as Malibu's coastline in Los Angeles. With their unique Mediterranean-style architecture featuring alternating cream and pink hues, numerous properties boast French windows that offer breathtaking views of Tai Tam's cove. This picturesque location is surrounded by lush hiking trails and provides a secure anchorage for luxury yachts.

Homes in the range of 2,400-3,600 square feet can be purchased for between $10 million to $20 million (with rental prices reaching up to $20,000 per month). However, the recent downpour has likely impacted these prices. Local real estate agents consider the effect of the storm on property prices to be a sensitive issue within the community.

During CNN's visit to Redhill last week, various luxury vehicles such as Porsche, Land Rover, and Ferrari could be seen driving past the entrance lined with palm trees. A security guard stood at the entrance, preventing the gathering of journalists from entering.

The district's true appeal, as expressed by a seasoned real estate agent with over twenty years of experience in property sales, lies in its close-knit community. "An added advantage is the presence of an international school, where children can socialize with their peers in the comfort of their own homes after school," the agent noted, choosing to remain anonymous out of respect for the sensitive nature of the topic. The Hong Kong International School, renowned for its excellence, was the institution being referred to.

She mentioned that nearly every house offers a sea view, highlighting that despite being situated away from the city, the development provides a convenient shuttle bus service for residents' transportation needs.

According to the agent, the landslides had the greatest impact on three houses, ranging from 2,700 to 3,000 square feet in size and valued at a maximum of $11.5 million each.

She observed a shift in mood lately and anticipates individuals attempting to sell a property, particularly those located near the sea, to maintain a low profile for some time. "The timing is delicate," she mentioned.

Flooded roads after heavy rains in Hong Kong on September 8.

Tyrone Siu/Reuters

The old rules may not apply

Heavy rainfall is not uncommon in Hong Kong, particularly during the summer months. However, the recent weather patterns have caused concern as two consecutive typhoons have rapidly passed through the area in less than a fortnight.

Typhoon Saola struck Hong Kong on September 1, marking it as the most powerful to hit the city in the past five years. The aftermath of Typhoon Haikui, occurring a week later, resulted in heavy rainfall that led to issues at Redhill, including numerous landslides and extensive flooding throughout the city.

With concerns about climate change, experts warn that these types of extreme weather events will become increasingly common. As a result, there are calls for Hong Kong to reassess its approach to managing rainfall and implementing measures to mitigate the effects.

Leung Wing-mo, a former assistant director of the city's weather observatory, stated in an interview with public broadcaster RTHK that the prediction of rainstorms has become increasingly challenging due to the effects of climate change. According to Leung, there has been a significant increase in the occurrence of record-breaking events in recent decades, which clearly highlights the role of climate change. Furthermore, Leung emphasized that climate change is intensifying extreme weather conditions.

Architects and civil engineers are urging the city to reassess the outdated standards for hillside constructions, which include numerous lavish mansions. In the 1970s, the city encountered severe landslides, resulting in the collapse of multiple residential buildings in the affluent Mid-Levels district, leading to the tragic loss of 67 lives.

The heavy rainfall that resulted in the Mid-Levels landslide in 1972 also caused a hill in a district of Hong Kong's Kowloon Peninsula to collapse, leading to the destruction of a squatter site in Sau Mai Ping and resulting in an additional 71 fatalities. This chain of disastrous events prompted the government at that time to strengthen slopes throughout the city, transforming Hong Kong into one of the most resistant locations in the world against landslides and floods, according to Ray Su, a professor of structural engineering at the University of Hong Kong.

But some engineers fear safety rules that seemed adequate in the past may no longer be enough.

Su noted that some of the citys low-rise houses were still built on shallow footings.

In extreme rain scenarios, "they will take a big hit when landslides crumble down," he said.

The Redhill Plaza shopping center in the Tai Tam area of Hong Kong on September 13, 2023.

Chris Lau/CNN

A ticking time bomb

Complicating matters in the case of the Redhill Peninsula is the suggestion by authorities that some of properties in danger may not even have been playing by the old rules.

Government authorities have identified potential illegal modifications to the three Redhill properties following the storm, which experts believe might have played a role in the disaster. This assertion touches upon a sensitive topic in the city, given its history of scandals involving affluent individuals and politicians who have unlawfully altered their properties and violated building codes. Skeptics argue that such unauthorized expansions would not be tolerated if perpetrated by those less privileged.

The Buildings Department of Hong Kong has identified unauthorized modifications, including basements, a swimming pool, and a three-story extension. The issue has sparked controversy, prompting the city's leader, John Lee, to personally intervene. Lee has made a firm commitment that the government will thoroughly investigate and take legal action against anyone found to have violated building codes.

Last week, he stated that given the risks evident from the landslide at Redhill Peninsula, the relevant departments will focus their inspections on the estate. Preliminary findings indicate that a retaining wall was destroyed in one of the houses.

According to Chan from the Hong Kong Institute of Architects, the alteration could potentially destabilize the cliff's structure and significantly disrupt the soil's drainage underneath, ultimately leading to landslides. Chan further explains that increasing water retention reduces the steepness of the slope.

He stated that although painful lessons from the past have led to the establishment of stringent regulations for constructing retaining walls and drainage systems, the outdated set of requirements is gradually becoming obsolete.

"He emphasized that these standards were established several years ago," he noted.

"Do the current standards have the capacity to endure such heavy rainfall? It is imperative for the government to reevaluate them," he stated.

Chan Kim-ching, the founder of Liber Research Community, a non-governmental organization dedicated to closely examining the authorities' land policies, expressed that the safety issues resulting from unauthorized alterations extend beyond the incidents at Redhill.

In a recent analysis, his team compared contracts found in public records and discovered at least 173 separate houses throughout the city that are suspected of violating public land regulations.

"We previously examined this matter due to concerns about the proper use of public resources. However, we never anticipated that it would pose a threat to public safety," he remarked.

"It is like a ticking time bomb," Chan said.