Unveiling Syria's Deep-Seated Drug Crisis and its Impact on Assad's Rehabilitation

Nearly five months after Arab states offered an olive branch to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it seems that some important figures behind the initiative are starting to doubt his dedication to the agreement.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al-Safadi stated this week that the smuggling of the highly addictive drug Captagon from Syria to Jordan has witnessed a significant surge subsequent to the normalization talks that resulted in Assad's reinstatement to the Arab League in May. After facing expulsion from the Arab League in 2011 due to the regime's brutal repression of opposition factions aiming to overthrow Assad, Syria's trafficking of Captagon has shown a marked increase.

Jordan was a strong advocate for rehabilitating the country, as it had been severely impacted by Syria's drug trade. However, there is a growing sense that the current regime is either unwilling or incapable of effectively addressing this issue.

According to a statement by the king reported by Al-Monitor, Jordan is actively working to prevent drugs from entering the country through its border. The king also expressed uncertainty about whether Bashar al-Assad, the leader of Syria, has complete control over the situation.

As part of the rehabilitation process, Arab states have insisted that Syria addresses the issue of trade in Captagon, a key demand. It is widely believed that Syria is the main source of the $57 billion global Captagon industry, with neighboring countries and the Gulf region being the primary markets.

This illicit trade has transformed Syria into a narco-state, enabling the Assad regime to recover financially amidst years of conflict and economic sanctions. Additionally, it has granted the regime significant influence over neighboring countries, ultimately prompting them to engage in negotiations with Assad.

In this photo released by the Syrian official news agency SANA, Syrian authorities display captagon pills, in rural Damascus, Syria, Tuesday, November 30, 2021.

SANA/AP

A little-known drug brought billions to Syria's coffers. Now it's a bargaining chip

The Saudi-owned newspaper, Asharq al-Awsat, recently reported on a potential indication of Arab dissatisfaction with Assad. According to the newspaper, the Arab ministerial committee responsible for overseeing the normalization of relations between Syria and the Arab countries has suspended its meetings with Damascus. This decision was made due to the lack of response towards the proposed roadmap for normalizing Arab-Syrian ties. However, Hossam Zaki, the assistant secretary-general of the Arab League, dismissed these reports and stated that they are not true. Zaki made these comments during an interview with CNN on Friday.

Syria's reintegration efforts have encountered predictable obstacles, according to Emile Hokayem, director of regional security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London. Hokayem stated that despite the lack of meaningful progress, Assad has achieved a symbolic triumph that will hinder Arab involvement for the foreseeable future. Hokayem expressed uncertainty regarding whether the decision made in May can be reversed or if alternative measures can be implemented to ensure compliance.

During an interview with Sky News Arabia last month, the Syrian leader expressed confidence and stated that he had no intention of reconciling with neighboring countries until they underwent certain changes. He attributed the lack of progress in normalizing relations with Arab nations to the ineptitude of Arab politics, noting that Arabs are skilled at creating a positive image but lack the ability to follow through with effective implementation.

Assad highlighted the exacerbation of drug trafficking during times of war and placed the responsibility for the Captagon problem in Syria on the countries that had contributed to the chaos in the nation, rather than the Syrian government itself. He emphasized that it was Syria, not its Arab neighbors, that had proposed a solution to the drug crisis, as it would be mutually advantageous for all parties involved.

Syria's rehabilitation process has been criticized as flawed by experts. According to HA Hellyer, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the lack of an accountability mechanism in the normalization initiative is a major problem.

"If Assad were to disregard the requests of the Arab states, regardless of his initial indication of taking them seriously, there lacks a formal procedure to enforce penalties against him for any breaches," stated Hellyer in an interview with CNN. "The current approach is predominantly improvised and capricious."

Booming Captagon trade

The trade of Captagon is flourishing, as traffickers employ more sophisticated technology to smuggle the amphetamine from Syria into neighboring countries. Jordan's Foreign Minister, Ayman al-Safadi, stated that despite assurances from the Syrians to address the issue, the current situation on the ground remains highly difficult. Al-Safadi emphasized that there has been a rise in the number of operations, necessitating their proactive response.

The Captagon trade is described by Safadi as a meticulously planned operation, with drug traffickers utilizing cutting-edge technology such as drones and night vision. Safadi stated that for every two or three smuggling attempts that are intercepted, an equal number manage to evade border control.

Given its extensive 378-kilometer border with Syria, Jordan considers any instability in its neighboring country as a threat to its own national security.

Gulf states and Jordan routinely report drug busts, with massive amounts of the drug found in everything from building panels to baklava shipments.

Saudi Arabia's authorities discovered and confiscated a staggering amount of forty-seven million amphetamine pills. The pills were cleverly concealed within a shipment of flour, which had arrived via the dry port of Riyadh. The nation's Ministry of Interior released a statement regarding the successful seizure.

Saudi Arabia is emerging as the drug hub of the Middle East. Recently, the United Arab Emirates uncovered an endeavor to smuggle over $1 billion worth of Captagon, weighing 13 tons, cleverly concealed within a consignment of doors and decorative building panels. In a bid to combat this illicit trade, Jordan's armed forces frequently intercept and neutralize drones smuggling amphetamines from Syria.

Experts claim that the expectations of both parties involved in the Arab-Syria normalization agreement are not being met. Assad has not been provided with a sufficient reason to abandon his profitable drug trade. Furthermore, what Assad desires might be challenging to fulfill. Hokayem stated that what Assad desired, such as unconditional political backing, substantial economic aid, and Arab influence to lift Western sanctions, was not something the Arab states were able or willing to provide.

Arab states may currently be in a precarious situation, with limited options available to them. According to Hokayem, they are unable to use direct and clear coercion tactics, and certain countries do not consider it worthwhile to invest resources and political influence in Syria. He further suggests that Assad's unwavering political stance may even compel some countries to surrender.

CNNs Zeena Saifi contributed to this report.