Unveiling Putin's Masterplan: The Ultimate Showdown in Ukraine
Putin exploits the fluctuating support for Ukraine, racing against time to achieve his agenda The war's resolution remains uncertain, despite former President Trump's claim of resolving it within 24 hours
How will the war in Ukraine conclude? Earlier this year, former President Donald Trump confidently stated that if he won another term, he would resolve the conflict within a single day, spanning 24 hours.
Russian President Vladimir Putin offers a slightly less ambitious prediction: If circumstances align favorably, the war could possibly come to an end within a week.
During his remarks on Thursday at the Valdai Discussion Club's annual meeting, a conference known for discussions on global matters, Putin forecasted Ukraine's collapse if the West ceases military aid and economic assistance.
"In essence, the Ukrainian economy is reliant on external support for its existence," he expressed. "Once this support is terminated, everything will crumble within a week. Conclusively. The same principle applies to the defense system: Envisage a scenario where supplies were to cease abruptly – you would only have a week to endure before running out of ammunition."
These remarks may be considered Putin's most explicit expression of his strategy in Ukraine thus far. He is relying on the disintegration of the Western alliance that supports Ukraine as the grueling war of attrition continues. Disturbing developments in recent days indicate that Putin's plan may be making progress, causing concern among those who support Ukraine.
Consider the recent news in Washington. President Joe Biden recently signed a temporary bill to prevent a government shutdown, but unfortunately, funding for Ukraine became a casualty of the political tensions on Capitol Hill.
The law signed may temporarily keep the US government operational until November 17; however, it does not allocate any supplementary funds for Ukraine. The Biden administration stresses the unwavering support of the American public for Ukraine. Nevertheless, the absence of funding in the legislation puts pressure on Kyiv and forces the White House to seek alternative solutions.
During the war, the United States has continuously provided essential support to Ukraine, totaling approximately $113 billion. This assistance includes direct military aid, financial injections, and humanitarian support.
However, the recent removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has cast uncertainty over the immediate future of a potential new aid package. With no permanent speaker in place, legislative activities in the House have come to a halt.
During a visit to the White House in Washington, DC, on September 21, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky makes his way down the White House colonnade, accompanied by President Joe Biden, to the Oval Office.
The administration has options available to them. The Pentagon Comptroller, who serves as the chief financial officer of the Department of Defense, has highlighted the possibility of utilizing the Presidential Drawdown Authority as a means to replenish Ukraine's depleting military resources.
Moreover, the considerable resistance exhibited by extreme conservative Republican lawmakers in Congress raises significant concerns regarding the long-term provision of aid to Ukraine, especially in light of a crucial counteroffensive.
Furthermore, the ongoing race for the Republican presidential nomination is another factor that likely influences Putin's decision-making. The Kremlin is undoubtedly aware that a number of GOP candidates are openly skeptical about providing assistance to Ukraine. Leading the pack is Trump, who has shown little support for Ukraine.
The financial burden of supporting Ukraine should not be forgotten, as the United States is not the sole country taking on this responsibility. Approximately 39% of direct military assistance to Ukraine is provided by members of the European Union.
On October 6, 2023, a Russian strike during the invasion of Ukraine caused significant damage to buildings in the center of Kharkiv, as seen in this photograph by Sergey Bobok. The attack resulted in at least sixteen people being wounded and the tragic death of a child, according to the Ukrainian Interior Minister. (Photo by SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty Images)
10-year-old boy slaughtered in Kharkiv while in slumber due to impact of Russian missile, confirms Ukraine.
It is evident that Putin relies on European weariness towards Ukraine. Recently, a party led by Robert Fico, a populist and Kremlin supporter, emerged victorious in parliamentary elections in Slovakia, a member of both the EU and NATO. Fico has urged the Slovak government to cease providing arms to Ukraine, and his baseless claims assigning blame to "Ukrainian Nazis and fascists" for instigating Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine surely pleases Putin.
Putin's advisors are also seen to be reading the defense trade press. During his recent remarks, the leader of the Kremlin highlighted that the US industrial base is encountering difficulties in meeting the increasing demand for ammunition from Ukraine, which has been engaged in an intense artillery conflict with Russia.
"The United States currently produces 14,000 155-mm shells, while Ukrainian troops consume up to 5,000 shells per day. In contrast, Ukraine produces only 14,000 shells per month," he stated at the Valdai conference. "Can you comprehend the gravity of the situation? Although they are attempting to boost production to 75,000 by the end of next year, we still have to wait until then."
Putins notecards may have had some inaccuracies - the current monthly production of shells in the US stands at 28,000. However, the Russian president was not wrong in portraying the intense competition between the US, its European allies, and Russia's industrial base.
Ukrainian serviceman at frontline positionssouth of Bakhmut on September 22.
Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
At the Warsaw Security Forum, Admiral Rob Bauer, the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, raised concerns about ammunition production for Ukraine, stating that the situation is reaching a critical point. It seems that Putin is relying on the disarray in Washington and tension within the transatlantic alliance for his attrition strategy to succeed. Additionally, the success of this strategy partially hinges on shaping the perception that Ukraine is destined to fail, leading its allies to withdraw their support.
As winter approaches and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is making slow progress, one must question the reality on the ground in Ukraine. Is the situation truly as dire as Putin claims it to be? Putin presents the ongoing battle in Ukraine as a fight for survival, emphasizing that it is a struggle to establish a new world order that favors authoritarian states, suggesting that Russia is committed for the long term.
"The Ukrainian crisis should not be viewed solely as a territorial conflict," he stated during the Valdai forum. "Rather, it is important to highlight that Russia, as the largest country in the world, already possesses an extensive territory. Our primary focus lies in the exploration and development of regions like Siberia, Eastern Siberia, and the Far East. Hence, this crisis does not revolve around territorial expansion or regional power dynamics alone. It encompasses a much broader and fundamental question: the principles that will shape the foundation of the emerging new world order."
Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko was spotted attending the 2nd Eurasian Economic Forum held on May 24, 2023, in Moscow, Russia. The event brought together the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia for the Summit of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Eurasian Economic Forum. The photo captures this moment and is credited to Contributor/Getty Images.
Russia's leader accuses the US of indirectly encouraging the use of nuclear weapons by arming Ukraine, according to the Belarusian leader. Disregarding Putin's previous assertion of the Ukrainian invasion as an imperial restoration effort, he clearly indicates during his statements at Valdai that Russia aims to outlast the West in the ongoing Ukraine situation.
However, not all individuals, particularly Ukrainians, subscribe to the idea of simply waiting. Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, countered Putin's remarks during the Valdai conference by emphasizing that Ukrainians would continue to strive for their survival, irrespective of Moscow's intention to undermine their country's support.
According to Mylovanov, in echoing Putin's statement, the Kremlin holds the belief that Ukraine's existence will only remain for one week after Western supplies run dry. It should be clarified that "live" refers to the existence of the country, rather than its ability to defend or resist. The responsibility for defending or resisting does not solely rely on actions taken on Capitol Hill. Putin's credibility has been weakened in recent months due to the Wagner mutiny and the Russian government's struggle to assemble dedicated and well-prepared troops following continuous defeats on the battlefield.
Putin's reliance on a prolonged conflict to diminish Western backing for Ukraine demonstrates his willingness to risk the stability of his own governing system. Additionally, he may be miscalculating the determination of the Ukrainian people, whom he perceives as mere pawns of Washington and Brussels. Consequently, these bleak developments only serve to strengthen Ukraine's resolve. Whether it is the devastating assault on Hroza village or the recent attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine's determination to fight remains steadfast, regardless of the level of support from the US and the West.
