Unveiling Poland's Growing Concerns: A Deep Dive into Ukraine's Shifting Dynamics

Just a few days ago, the eastern part of Poland was enjoying unusually warm weather. However, this region experiences long and severe winters, which can unexpectedly descend upon them.

Friday night in Lublin has brought about a change in weather. The young people of the city have come out in large numbers, bundled up in jackets and beanies that had been stored away for months. Despite feeling chilly, they are filled with excitement, anxiously tapping their feet. Moreover, they are also filled with anger.

Several topics provoke strong reactions from Poland's resurgent far right. "I am here because I oppose LGBT rights, I oppose the European Union, and I am against abortion," says a 15-year-old boy, one of the organizers of tonight's event in the central square of Lublin, speaking to CNN.

However, the political climate in Poland is also undergoing a shift. For the first time since Russia initiated a brutal war across the border last year, certain segments of Polish society are directing their hostility towards a new target: Ukraine.

Przemysław Chinek, 28, who attended a rally for Confederation, a far-right party gaining popularity ahead of Poland's upcoming election, expressed his concern about some Ukrainians feeling too comfortable within the country. "They pose a threat to Poles," he explains, highlighting the cultural similarities between the countries while emphasizing the differences in moral values. Chinek has brought his wife and two daughters, aged five and three months, to the rally.

The bedrock of Confederation's support is young, rural Polish men, many of whom view Ukrainian refugees with suspicion.

Rob Picheta

Confederation rails against state spending, lambasting the funds Poland - Ukraines nearest and most important European ally - has provided its neighbor since Russia invaded.

The opening speaker at the rally stirs up a growing crowd by shouting, "President Zelensky is merely a puppet!" Amidst the rally, 31-year-old content creator Mateusz Rybaczek expresses his tolerance but reminds the Ukrainian refugees in Poland that they are visitors, not guests. He asserts, "Respect must be given as this is my country."

Poland's relationship with Russia remains uncomplicated as most Poles view Moscow as a constant global predator that must be resisted. This stance, rooted in long-standing animosity that spans generations, has only intensified over the last 18 months.

However, Ukraine, which is the enemy of Poland's enemy, has not always been a friendly nation. Past historical trauma and competitive relations with its neighbor are resurfacing, and the Confederation party has given a voice to Polish citizens who harbor suspicions towards the 1.4 million Ukrainian refugees resettled in the country. Although the party is not a major force in Polish politics, it has been gaining influence in recent weeks. This influence could potentially increase this weekend, as opinion polls suggest that the parliamentary elections on Sunday could lead to a hung parliament. In such a scenario, Confederation may find a path to power if they negotiate a deal with Law and Justice, the populist ruling party commonly referred to as PiS.

The group is capturing voters from the ruling populist party, forcing a hardening in the government's tone towards Ukraine.

The situation in Kyiv and the West is considered the worst-case scenario. This rally, which is just over a hundred miles away from Ukraine, is filled with sentiment that will bring joy to the Kremlin. The Kremlin is eager to exploit any opportunity to weaken Western unity.

"We transported girls from Ukraine to Warsaw," recounts Tomasz Piotr, 33, reflecting on his early involvement in the invasion. Alongside his wife, Katarzyna, they also contributed groceries to a refugee center out of a genuine desire to assist, having witnessed brutal scenes in Ukraine.

However, similar to other attendees at the rally, he laments the lack of "appreciation" from Ukrainians for their assistance. "They have expectations beyond what is reasonable," he asserts. "We need to recognize our limits... the welfare of the Polish people must take precedence, and we should always bear this in mind."

Everybody is tired

Anna Martyrenko, like millions of Ukrainians, recalls the assistance she received during her country's descent into conflict with fondness. "The Polish people generously provided us with food and offered us places to stay where it was warmer," she recounts from her current residence in Warsaw, where she resides with her two sons. "They showed genuine concern for my well-being and displayed remarkable friendliness."

Poland's assistance has been vital to Ukraine's war campaign. Since February 2022, Ukraine has witnessed a significant exodus of millions of displaced individuals seeking refuge in Poland. At the same time, Poland has played a crucial role in facilitating the rapid transportation of billions of dollars' worth of NATO military equipment through its territory.

Anna Martyrenko fled to Poland with her sons, in the first weeks of the war in Ukraine.

Rob Picheta

Support for Ukraine is currently diminishing on two fronts. As hostility infiltrates public spaces and media during the election campaign, even those who are more sympathetic are starting to feel fatigued.

Gianmarco Ercolani, who welcomed a refugee into his apartment in Lodz last year, shares his perspective. "I still offer my intellectual support to Ukrainians," he explains. "However, I feel like I have already made significant efforts. With the urgency subsiding, it is natural for your mindset to change... you simply become accustomed to the situation."

Support for Poland taking in refugees fleeing war dropped from 80% to 52% based on a recent Pew Research Center survey. Despite experiencing incidents of rude behavior, Martyrenko speaks positively of her host country, stating that such occurrences are not out of the ordinary.

But the conflict has been long, and urgency has drifted. "Everybody is tired," she notes. "This war could come to Poland… (but) not everybody understands this."

Several million Ukrainian refugees entered Poland after Russia's invasion. An estimated 1.4 million resettled there.

Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Past trauma resurfaces

The event specifically targets young voters in eastern Poland, where Confederation has gained support. Surveys during the summer months indicated that the party was leading among male voters aged 18-21. Leading the event is Sławomir Mentzen, the charismatic 36-year-old co-leader who has 800,000 followers on TikTok. As he flicks through a sequence of political memes, which are projected onto a large screen behind him, his delivery often resembles a stand-up comedy routine.

The rallies organized by Confederation often mimic the energetic atmosphere of a rock concert, while occasionally adopting the format of a stand-up comedy routine. The youth co-leader of the group cleverly employs memes to satirize the prominent figures in Polish politics.

Rob Picheta reports that there is widespread dissatisfaction with the social welfare program implemented by populist governments. This program provides support to parents, the elderly, and recently, Ukrainian refugees. Martyrenko, a recipient of the program, expresses discontentment with the monthly payment of 500 zloty ($116) per child, deeming it insufficient for sustaining a family. Conversely, supporters of the Confederation view this amount as excessive.

"It's a 50-50 situation for me - half of the Ukrainians come here with good intentions, while the other half come for various reasons, perhaps for monetary gain," comments spectator Filip Gajos, 23. Last week, Mentzen expressed concerns on Twitter, stating that "Ukraine's growing influence on Polish politics must not be allowed to happen."

As anger intensifies, painful historical memories are resurfacing. "Polish-Ukrainian relations have been strained for a significant period," Chinek explains. "The events in Volhynia and the lives lost there are etched in everyone's memory."

Confederation polled as high at 15% earlier in the campaign. Their share of the vote on Sunday could prove vital to where the balance of power in Poland falls.

Rob Picheta

He is referring to a World War II-era massacre - Poles call it a genocide - by Ukrainian nationalists just east of Lublin, mostly in what is now western Ukraine.

Memory of that tragedy became a crucial foundation for shaping Polish identity following its liberation from the Soviet Union. According to Dariusz Stola, a historian at the Polish Academy of Sciences, it played a vital role in reclaiming Poland's past during the post-Communist era, thereby filling the gaps in Polish history textbooks.

Rob Picheta

'We live in different worlds': Poland's toxic politics is splitting the country in two, one family at a time

Stola says that discussion about those events diminished significantly after the Russian attacks last year. Anyone who raised arguments about the past was immediately branded as pro-Russian. However, those emotionally charged memories have now resurfaced, complicating the country's efforts to integrate Ukrainian refugees. This summer, on the 80th anniversary of the tragedy, the Polish government renewed its calls for the excavation of graves. Simon Oshinski, a 21-year-old supporter of the Confederation, emphasizes that there are still unidentified individuals and living generations struggling to find their grandfathers.

Fearful of losing their rural strongholds to Confederation, ruling PiS officials have taken a more aggressive approach towards Kyiv during the election campaign, launching scathing attacks on President Volodymyr Zelensky and his government regarding Volhynia, grain imports, and even briefly touching on the delivery of weapons.

The outskirts of Kostrogaj, a village in central Poland. Confederation's rise has threatened the ruling party, Law and Justice, in their rural strongholds.

Rob Picheta

"(Ukrainian refugees) enjoy the same privileges as Polish citizens in terms of labor market access and welfare system support," Stola explains. "This has been taken advantage of by the far-right party, PiS, who have recently recognized this and attempted to exploit the situation."

These changes demonstrate the growing influence of Confederation in the political landscape, although they still hold a relatively minor role. However, they have raised concerns that if Confederation is required to support the next PiS government, anti-Ukraine sentiments will increasingly shape Polish policy decisions.

Anger builds in Polands countryside

On Adam Zaleskis farm, outside the village of Kostrogaj in central Poland, it has been a difficult year.

Speaking in a stoic tone, he explains the numerous challenges that have plagued Polish agriculture, emphasizing how the dry weather conditions since spring have intensified these issues. He expresses concern over the uncertain selling prices, despite the substantial amount of money invested. Zaleski's farm, which has been in operation since the 1890s under his great-great-grandfather, had been grappling with difficulties even before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, since the war began, Zaleski's anxiety has further heightened.

Earlier this year, Poland and Ukraine engaged in a heated and at times angry disagreement regarding an excessive amount of inexpensive grain from Ukraine. Typically, this grain would be transported from Ukraine's currently occupied Black Sea ports, but it instead entered Poland and subsequently made its way throughout Europe.

The war has damaged the livelihoods of Polish farmers like Adam Zaleski.

Rob Picheta

The arrival of cheaper products severely impacted Polish farmers like Zaleski, resulting in a temporary EU ban that ended last month. This created another controversy as Poland, along with Hungary and Slovakia, vowed to continue the ban.

"Look at these numbers," Zaleski says with a weary sigh, pointing to a handwritten page filled with decreasing figures and subtraction symbols. "There are absolutely no profits," he states, concluding another challenging season.

Zaleski and his wife, Justyna, are steadfast in their determination to see Russia defeated in the battlefield. However, the ongoing conflict between their government and Kyiv has caused frustration among rural communities like theirs.

A pivotal moment for them and many Poles occurred when Zelensky insinuated that Poland was exaggerating the grain dispute for political purposes. During a speech at the United Nations General Assembly, he claimed that "some of our European friends" were turning it into a dramatic production, thereby aiding Russia's agenda.

Zaleski prods with resignation at his handwritten notes. "There are no profits at all," he says.

Rob Picheta

"It was scandalous," Zaleski says. "People are outraged," his wife adds. "We didnt say that were going to block (the passage of) the grains. But we dont want this grain in Poland."

Justyna voices a growing sentiment among some Poles, expressing second thoughts about the disparities between Ukrainians and Poles in terms of healthcare, education, and opportunities. Zaleski, on the other hand, reflects a more somber perspective on the unresolved issues in the relationship between Poland and Ukraine, including the lasting pain caused by the Volhynia massacre for many generations of Poles.

"A friendship is good when its based on honesty," he says. "Without solving these problems from the past, we cant build a new relationship based on respect."

Zaleski claims that politicians have disregarded Polish agriculture for many years. However, this year, the industry became entangled in a geopolitical conflict, resulting in harm to the relations between Poland and Ukraine.

Zaleski, a socially conservative farmer who previously supported PiS but is now determined not to, represents the exact type of Pole that Confederation is eager to attract.

Although he harbors suspicions about the group, he acknowledges their allure. "They have presented easy solutions," he asserts. "This party demonstrates to voters how to tackle highly complex problems in straightforward ways. Undoubtedly, many individuals will cast their vote for them."

He will cast his vote, although he cannot yet disclose his choice. However, Ukrainian Martyrenko, who has been displaced, firmly believes and hopes that Poland's support will remain steadfast for whoever assumes power next week.

"When I was welcomed by the Poles last spring after leaving Ukraine, I felt reassured that everything was fine," she expressed.

"A lot of people came here from Ukraine to save their children," she adds. "Its very difficult to stay alone without support."