Unveiling Joe Manchin's Vision: Mobilizing the Heartland of America

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Following the celebration of the moderate governor's reelection in the traditionally conservative state of Kentucky, Democrats were struck with despair upon learning that Sen. Joe Manchin has decided not to seek reelection in the neighboring state of West Virginia. This decision effectively guarantees that Republicans will secure that Senate seat in the upcoming elections next year.

While the state of US politics may seem stagnant, the trajectory of Manchin's career in the Senate reflects an ongoing and continual realignment. He entered the Senate after winning a special election in 2010, managing to retain the seat for the Democrats despite the Republicans gaining six additional Senate seats that same year. It was a time when a Republican could win a Senate seat in Massachusetts, signaling the approaching end of an era when Democrats represented states like North and South Dakota, as well as Arkansas, in the Senate.

In today's political landscape, the notion of either party gaining six Senate seats in a single election appears quite far-fetched, as only a small number of seats are considered genuinely competitive.

The country and West Virginia changed around Manchin

At the time when Manchin joined the Senate, West Virginia was being represented by two Democrats, while Arizona had two Republicans in office. Presently, apart from Manchin's Senate seat, Republicans dominate all nonjudicial statewide positions in West Virginia, whereas Arizona voters have chosen Democrats for key roles, such as US senator and governor.

There is no assurance that Manchin would have secured reelection in 2024; his victory for a second full term in 2018 was only by a narrow margin. However, it is widely agreed that this elderly politician, who transitioned from being a governor to a senator, represents a dying breed.

Governor Jim Justice of West Virginia, who is currently running to take over Manchin's seat, attracted significant attention when he made a surprising announcement at a rally for then-President Donald Trump in 2017, declaring his switch to the Republican party.

Manchin remained loyal to the Democratic Party despite the chance to switch parties, even as he felt distanced from their ideals. He played a part in securing a narrow Senate majority for Democrats but also surprised them by rejecting their ambitious climate and social safety net proposals.

Although his unwavering stances puzzled his fellow Democrats, his choice to not run for reelection will undoubtedly aggravate them further. If a Republican wins the White House in 2024, the GOP will only need to gain one more seat to take control of the Senate. If President Joe Biden is reelected, they will need to gain two.

Regardless of who controls the House,

Republicans have better pickup opportunities than Democrats

theres little to no chance for either side to secure a majority in the Senate that would enable them to overcome a filibuster and pass significant legislation. The last instance when either party possessed 60 votes was in 2010, prior to Manchin's arrival in the Senate.

CNN's Simone Pathe frequently releases a compilation of the top 10 Senate seats poised for change, and Manchin's seat has consistently ranked first on her 2024 list.

The majority of the remaining seats classified as likely to switch are currently held by Democrats. However, this pattern primarily stems from the seats being up for election rather than a reflection of the nation's overall state.

Democrats face the challenge of defending seats in states like Montana and Ohio, both of which strongly supported Trump in the 2020 election. Additionally, they must defend their positions in the pivotal battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Senator Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona has cultivated a unique brand of political independence, similar to Manchin. In fact, she took the extra measure of officially leaving the Democratic Party last year to become an independent. Although it remains uncertain if Sinema will seek reelection, her Arizona seat will undoubtedly be fiercely contested.

While they are on defense in key races across the country, Democrats two remotely plausible pickup opportunities, in Florida and Texas, are also states that went for Trump.

The Senate and House could go in opposite directions in 2024

It is a peculiar aspect of American politics that there is a likely possibility of a divided outcome in the year 2024. Specifically, Republicans may secure control of the Senate while simultaneously losing their grip on the House.

At present, they hold a narrow majority in the House. However, the alteration of district boundaries in Alabama, and possibly in Georgia and New York, could diminish their majority. Conversely, a partisan gerrymander in North Carolina might assist their cause.

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Currently, there are eighteen House Republicans representing districts that voted for Biden in 2020. This creates a significant opportunity for Democrats to regain control of the chamber, especially if Biden is reelected. Additionally, with Manchin no longer seeking reelection, he intends to expand his influence beyond his current position.

Concerns have been raised among certain members of the Democratic party regarding the possibility of Manchin initiating a third-party presidential campaign. In recent months, he made an appearance at a gathering hosted by No Labels, an organization advocating for ballot accessibility for an alternative independent candidate.

Whats Manchins middle?

Manchin has certainly pushed his own independence, and that has pulled Democrats to the right in important ways.

Manchin stands apart from most Democrats on numerous issues, one of them being his disagreement with taking action to combat climate change. In fact, in a campaign ad back in 2010, he went as far as shooting a bullet into a copy of the Democrats' cap-and-trade legislation. While this stance may be well-received in West Virginia, a region heavily reliant on coal, it may not fare well in the broader country, where the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent.

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023, Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) was captured boarding an elevator at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. after casting a Senate vote. (Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA)(Sipa via AP Images)

Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA/AP

Manchins retirement may end up being his biggest tease yet

He has actively demonstrated his independence by obstructing long-lasting changes on important Democratic issues such as tax credits to alleviate child poverty and increasing the minimum wage.

Furthermore, his decision to vote alongside Republicans against making Roe v. Wade a definitive law of the nation appears to contradict the prevailing sentiment in the country, as even voters in conservative states consistently show support for abortion rights.

Can highlighting the disparities within his own party potentially be turned into a unifying message? While he has made efforts to find common ground on gun-related matters, his endeavors have yielded limited accomplishments.

The sentiment may sound nice, but Manchin appears to be an imperfect messenger. As a seasoned politician, he has faced criticism from national Democrats for obstructing their agendas, and he has also been a target of Republicans who have not been successful in removing him from his position in West Virginia.