Unveiling Israel's Expanding Dominance in Northern Gaza: The Absence of a Post-War Blueprint

CNN's Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter features a version of this story, providing a comprehensive update on the Israeli military's escalating control over northern Gaza amidst the ongoing conflict with the Hamas militant group.

Israel has not yet presented a comprehensive plan for the territory after nearly six weeks of conflict. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have successfully divided the Strip and asserted that Hamas no longer has control over northern Gaza, including Gaza City.

Israeli forces conducted a raid on Al-Shifa, the largest hospital in Gaza, on Wednesday, alleging that Hamas had constructed a command center below the extensive medical facility. In response, Hamas accused Israel of disseminating inaccurate accounts, concocted narratives, and distorted information regarding Al-Shifa.

But what is Israels plan for Gaza if and when it achieves its aim of eliminating Hamas? Some experts say Israel may not have a clear idea.

Palestinians mourn relatives killed in the Israeli bombardment of Gaza, at the hospital in Khan Younis on November 15.

Fatima Shbair/AP

According to Frank Lowenstein, who served as the Special Envoy for Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations during the 2014 Israel-Gaza war under President Barack Obama, Israel has not provided a viable plan for the post-war situation in Gaza, despite having stated their security objectives and imperatives. Lowenstein stated that Israel may argue they have the time to develop a plan after concluding the military operation.

On June 21, 2023, in London, England, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delivered a speech during the opening session of the Ukraine Recovery Conference. This conference, jointly hosted by the UK and Ukraine, focuses on mobilizing international support to help Ukraine stabilize and recover economically and socially from the consequences of Russia's illegal war. The event took place at the InterContinental London O2. (Photo by Henry Nicholls - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

Henry Nicholls/Getty Images

Blinken brings a notable shift in US language toward Israel as pressure mounts at home and abroad

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been tight-lipped regarding his plans for Gaza after the military operation. During an interview with CNN, the 74-year-old leader, who has been involved in numerous Israel-Gaza conflicts, outlined two main objectives for the operation: the eradication of Hamas and the rescue of over 200 hostages who were abducted by the group on October 7. Additionally, Hamas has also claimed the lives of around 1,200 individuals in Israel during their unprecedented attack. Despite these brief observations, Netanyahu has not presented a clear strategy for the region. Currently, more than two-thirds of Gaza's 2 million inhabitants are internally displaced, and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that over 40% of residential properties have been destroyed or damaged, according to data from the Ministry of Housing in Gaza.

"Israel entered this situation without a well-defined strategy for what would follow," stated Daniel Levy, the president of the US-Middle East Project, a London and New York-based organization dedicated to seeking solutions to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

What role can Palestinians play?

In his interview with CNN's Dana Bash on Sunday, Netanyahu expressed his view that Gaza has the potential for a civilian government led by Palestinians. However, he emphasized the importance of this government fully cooperating with Israel's security objectives, which he labeled as an "over-riding, over-reaching military envelope." He did not provide any specific details regarding the exact nature of this military envelope.

Netanyahu declined to respond to CNN's inquiry about his willingness to take responsibility for the attack on October 7.

The US has issued a caution against Israel re-establishing control over Gaza, and has emphasized the importance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) playing a future role in the region. While Netanyahu has consistently expressed his disdain for the PA, he did mention to CNN that there could potentially be a role for a reformed civilian authority, describing it as "some form of civilian Palestinian Authority," after the conflict in Gaza. Netanyahu emphasized the importance of the authority taking steps to discourage radicalization and disarm its population.

However, experts have expressed doubts about the feasibility of this goal. Levy stated that Palestinians would be hesitant to collaborate with Israel after the war, which has resulted in the deaths of over 11,000 individuals in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry in Ramallah, citing medical sources from the Hamas-controlled Strip. Levy pointed out, "I doubt there would be volunteers for such a task," during an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday. "It would not be prudent for any Palestinian group to agree to this while being monitored by Israel."

The Palestinian Authority (PA) has faced difficulties in Gaza and was effectively expelled by Hamas in 2007 following a brief internal conflict, leaving it with limited authority only over certain regions of the West Bank. Analysts differ in their opinions on whether reintegrating the PA into the Strip would be successful.

Video Ad Feedback

Netanyahu appeared to rule out giving the Palestinian Authority control of post-war Gaza.

02:44

- Source:

CNN

According to Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, the PA is more of a problem than a solution. He argues that the PA has not effectively governed the West Bank and lacks legitimacy within its own constituents.

A survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah revealed that in the previous year, over 70% of Palestinians expressed dissatisfaction with Mahmoud Abbas, the aging president of the PA. The poll further indicated that 74% of Palestinians demanded his resignation.

Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator and member of the US-Middle East Project, noted that one significant factor contributing to Abbas's waning popularity is his willingness to collaborate with Israel, resulting in the continuous expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank under his leadership.

Contrarily, Lowenstein informed CNN that there are limited practical alternatives aside from reintegrating the PA in some form. He emphasized that regional and international parties would be unwilling to invest in the costly reconstruction of Gaza without a clear political road map towards achieving a two-state solution.

Smoke rises during Israeli military bombardment of the northern Gaza Strip on November 15.

Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images

Regional players

Both Palestinians and regional players may be reluctant to accept what Israel has so far suggested, experts say.

Lina Khatib, head of the SOAS Middle East Institute in London, noted that Arab countries are hesitant to acknowledge the concerns presented by Netanyahu.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani were present at a meeting held in Lusail, Qatar on Friday, October 13, 2023. The meeting was captured by Jacquelyn Martin and the photograph was published by Reuters.

The tiny Arab state of Qatar has become crucial in negotiations with Hamas, allowing for the possibility of having a government that is viewed as more legitimate by Palestinians in both Gaza and the West Bank.

During the 1960s, the PLO emerged as the recognized and respected advocate for Palestinian resistance, having maintained this stature for several decades.

Michael from INSS, formerly in charge of the Palestinian desk at Israel's Ministry for Strategic Affairs, asserted that the bilateral negotiations between Israel and Palestine have reached an impasse. He further explained that the concessions Israel can offer fall short of the Palestinians' minimum requirements, and vice versa.

The conflict should be viewed as a regional issue, not merely between Palestinians and Israelis. To address this, regional actors need to play more significant roles.

According to a report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), even before the current crisis, Gaza had already suffered from nearly 17 years of blockade, leading to a shattered economy and 80% of its population relying on international aid. The UN Development Programme (UNDP) stated that this war has set back the Palestinian economy in both Gaza and the West Bank for decades. However, due to the current uncertainty surrounding the length of Israel's campaign, an estimate of the costs for Gaza's reconstruction has not been provided.

Video Ad Feedback

After this war, 'there will still be a Hamas,' warns former Israeli negotiator

12:56

- Source:

CNN

According to the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute, the estimated cost of reconstructing the Gaza Strip and restoring its economy over the next five years could be as high as $20 billion. The institute also emphasized the need for generous international aid, stating that no single Palestinian party has the capacity to undertake this task alone.

Experts have identified the UNDP and UNRWA as key organizations that can assist in the distribution of aid and the reconstruction efforts. However, it is crucial for donor countries to not only contribute generously but also for aid groups to feel secure and able to operate safely in the area.

Experts warn that as Israel refuses to yield to pressure for a ceasefire, the conflict is expected to prolong, resulting in a continued Israeli presence in Gaza in the foreseeable future.

Demonstrators chant slogans near the Israeli embassy in Amman on Friday to show solidarity with Gazans.

Khalil Mazraawi/AFP/Getty Images

Concerns about another Palestinian exodus echo throughout the Middle East. Levy expressed caution, emphasizing that unless the issue of Palestinian displacement, statelessness, and deprivation of rights is resolved, it is probable that Hamas will persist as the prevailing outcome of the ongoing conflict.

Its military capability may be reduced, but politically it is likely more robust than previously," he asserted. "Hamas will continue to exist."

Regarding a potential future settlement, Lowenstein emphasized that substantial efforts will be required to revitalize the two-state solution, which had been "barely surviving" prior to the conflict and frequently treated as a mere rhetoric rather than a concrete policy.