Unraveling the Global Conundrum: Balancing Crises in Israel and Ukraine
America's aid to Israel is unwavering, but can it maintain the same level of support for Ukraine? David A Andelman examines the American military's resource constraints in managing the crises in both nations
Simply put, the United States cannot easily handle two major wars while also preparing for the potential of a third. This is a harsh and undeniable truth, one that is becoming more and more apparent with each passing hour.
David Andelman
CNN
The ongoing war in Ukraine, which Russia seems intent on continuing indefinitely, has already put a strain on America's military industrial base. Even before the Russian invasion, there were concerns about whether America, as a superpower, was stretched too thin.
Israel, being a close ally of the Biden administration, is currently engaged in a war that the administration has promised to assist. This conflict holds the potential to escalate further, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has enforced a blockade in Gaza and issued threats of an invasion. Such actions may provoke Iran to respond or incite involvement from various other nations.
Furthermore, a concerning situation is the possibility of China challenging Taiwan's control, with the latter frequently appearing on the edge of conflict.
On Saturday, October 7, 2023, in Ashkelon, southern Israel, police officers carried out the evacuation of a woman and a child from a location struck by a rocket originating from the Gaza Strip. This incident occurred simultaneously with Hamas declaring a fresh operation targeting Israel.
Tsafrir Abayov/AP
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The Biden administration has significantly boosted America's production of artillery rounds, particularly the benchmark 155mm round. Prior to the war, the production rate was a mere 14,000 per month. However, this has been raised to 24,000 rounds per month under the current administration, with plans to further increase it to 28,000 per month in the near future. The allocation of these rounds specifically for Ukraine remains uncertain, as officials in Washington have not provided any details.
Furthermore, the United States is grappling with the growing challenge of acquiring high-tech components for cruise missiles, sophisticated artillery weapons, and drones. This task has become increasingly difficult due to the soaring prices of radiation-resistant capacitors and semiconductor chips, which have surged by 300%. Additionally, the cost of lithium components has risen by 400%, as highlighted in a recent Defense News survey.
However, there has been no public discourse regarding the expansion of arms shipments to Israel thus far. Nevertheless, the Biden administration has hinted to Congress that such a request may not be too distant. Under the latest 10-year Memorandum of Understanding spanning from 2018 to 2028, a total of $38 billion in military aid was pledged. Israel has already procured 50 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, which are the most advanced stealth jet fighters ever created, making it the first foreign operator to do so. In 2023, Congress sanctioned approximately $520 million for joint US-Israel defense programs, with the majority allocated for missile defense.
However, the rapid pace of missile attacks from Hamas has led most impartial observers to believe that Israel will require swift and immediate replenishment of munitions for its Iron Dome defense systems.
On Tuesday, October 10, in Ashkelon, Israel, mourners gathered at the grave of Eden Guez to bid her farewell. She tragically lost her life while attending a music festival that was targeted by terrorists originating from Gaza. Israeli authorities have confirmed the devastating loss of at least 260 individuals at the Nova Festival.
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Smoke rises after Israeli strikes on the seaport of Gaza City on October 10.
Mohammed Salem/Reuters
A body is being carried by Israeli soldiers on October 10 in Kfar Azza, a village in close proximity to Gaza within Israel's borders. The Israel Defense Forces informed CNN that Hamas militants perpetrated a severe act of violence, referred to as a "massacre," in Kfar Aza during their recent attacks.
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Israeli soldiers take position in Kfar Aza near the border with Gaza on October 10.
Atef Safadi/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Palestinians rescue a young girl from the rubble of a destroyed residential building following an Israeli airstrike on October 10.
Fatima Shbair/AP
Stranded travelers wait to be booked on a flight at Ben Gurion International Airport outside Tel Aviv on October 10.
Palestinians walk amid the rubble following Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City on October 10.
Fatima Shbair/AP
Israelis in Ashkelon take cover in a shelter as a siren sounds a warning of incoming rockets on October 10.
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People gather around the bodies of two Palestinian reporters, Mohammed Soboh and Said al-Tawil, who were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City on October 10.
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Israelis mourn as they attend the funeral of Israel Defense Forces soldier Noam Elimeleh Rothenberg at Mount Herzel Cemetery in Jerusalem, on October 10.
A Palestinian man reacts as he carries the body of his cousin who was pulled from the rubble after Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City on Monday, October 9.
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A family takes shelter at a neighbor's house after their home was damaged in an Israeli airstrike in the Shati refugee camp in Gaza on October 9.
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Children run for cover as bombs fall near the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on October 9.
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A photo from a wedding is seen on the ground of a building in Ashkelon that was hit by rockets from Gaza on October 9.
People take shelter in Jerusalem on October 9.
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The ruins of the Yassin mosque are seen in the Shati refugee camp just outside Gaza City on October 9.
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Friends and relatives of Ilai Bar Sade mourn next to his grave during his funeral at a military cemetery in Tel Aviv, Israel, on October 9.
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Lightning strikes over Gaza City following an Israeli bombardment on October 9.
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Israeli soldiers take position near the border between Gaza and Israel on October 9.
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A Palestinian man mourns over the body of his nephew killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City on October 9.
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Palestinians inspect the damage following an Israeli airstrike on the Sousi mosque in Gaza City on October 9.
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Israeli soldiers work on a tank at the border between Israel and Gaza on October 9.
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A plume of smoke rises in the sky over Gaza City during an Israeli airstrike on October 9.
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The mother of Israeli Col. Roi Levy cries during her son's funeral at the Mount Herzl cemetery in Jerusalem on October 9.
Maya Alleruzzo/AP
Palestinians inspect damage from Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City's Shati refugee camp on October 9.
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Israelis view a damaged residential building in Ashkelon after it was hit by a rocket fired from Gaza on October 9.
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Tali Touito reacts as she describes how Hamas gunmen attacked and took over the police station on her street, in Sderot, Israel, on Sunday, October 8.
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Fire and smoke rise from Gaza City following an Israeli airstrike on October 8.
A relative of an Israeli missing since the attacks is overcome by emotion during a press conference in Ramat Gan, Israel, on October 8.
Maya Alleruzzo/AP
Palestinians inspect a mosque destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis, Gaza, on October 8.
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An Israeli soldier prays standing in front of a tank on the outskirts of the northern town of Kiryat Shmona on October 8.
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Israelis inspect the rubble of a building in Tel Aviv on October 8, a day after it was hit by a rocket fired from Gaza.
Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Gaza on October 8.
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
Palestinians search the rubble of a home in Khan Younis that was destroyed by Israeli airstrikes on October 8.
Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters
Palestinian citizens inspect damage to their homes caused by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City on October 8.
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Amir Cohen/Reuters
Palestinian children look toward the sky at the sound of airstrikes at a United Nations-run school in Gaza on Saturday, October 7.
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A woman runs to her family's reinforced concrete shelter moments after rocket sirens sounded in Ashkelon on October 7.
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From the window of his family's apartment, a man surveys damage from a rocket that struck a parking lot in Ashkelon on October 7.
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Fatima Shbair/AP
Palestinians break into the Israeli side of the Israel-Gaza border, after gunmen infiltrated parts of southern Israel on October 7.
Mohammed Fayq Abu Mostafa/Reuters
Police officers evacuate a woman and a child from a site hit by a rocket in Ashkelon on October 7.
Tsafrir Abayov/AP
Smoke rises over Gaza during Israeli airstrikes on October 7.
Mahmud Hams/AFP/Getty Images
An Israeli woman reacts over the body of her relative who was killed in the southern Israeli city of Sderot on October 7.
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Children are seen in a damaged house in Gaza after Israeli airstrikes on October 7.
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A man in Ashkelon runs after rockets were launched from Gaza on October 7.
Amir Cohen/Reuters
Israelis donate blood in Jerusalem on October 7.
Maya Alleruzzo/AP
Palestinians inspect a destroyed building as emergency responders try to contain fires after Israeli jets bombed Gaza on October 7.
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Relatives of Palestinians killed on Saturday, October 7, mourn at the morgue of a hospital in Gaza.
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An Israeli soldier stands by the bodies of Israelis killed by Palestinian militants in Sderot on October 7.
Tsafrir Abayov/AP licensed
A woman stands in a room damaged by rockets in Ashkelon on October 7.
A building in Tel Aviv is ablaze Saturday, October 7, following rocket attacks from Gaza.
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Smoke rises as the clashes between Palestinian groups and Israeli forces continue on the streets of Beit Hanun in Gaza on October 7.
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People take cover in a bomb shelter in Rishon Lezion, Israel, as rockets are launched from Gaza on October 7.
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Rockets are fired toward Israel from Gaza on October 7.
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China's leaders have not yet rejected the use of military force, but they are increasingly relying on the People's Liberation Army as a means of coercion to support their revisionist goals. This includes engaging in more risky activities in and around the Taiwan Strait. Last month, Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, stated to the House Armed Services Committee that China remains the top challenge for the Department of Defense. He emphasized the importance of meeting our commitments in line with the Taiwan Relations Act, which includes providing Taiwan with the necessary self-defense capabilities, as well as maintaining our own ability to counter any use of force that puts the security of the people of Taiwan at risk.
Ratner observed that the administration would require a bipartisan and comprehensive government commitment to enhancing Taiwan's self-defense. Interestingly, in his public testimony, Ratner did not specify any specific costs for this commitment, leaving it open-ended. However, there is another potential conflict that poses a serious challenge to the nation's military stockpile, which may strain even the vast American stockpiles and the military-industrial complex in the long run.
Moreover, the issue of how the drain on American munitions would affect the nation's ability to defend itself is a critical yet rarely discussed matter. During a background briefing on Monday, a senior defense department official assured reporters, "We are capable of continuing our support to both Ukraine and Israel while maintaining our own global readiness."
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However, the reauthorization of funding for weaponry in all three regions, particularly Ukraine and Israel, is not without its challenges. The Pacific theater's path to success is also unclear. The Biden administration has issued a warning to leaders in the House and Senate, as well as committee members, that it will soon approach Congress to seek new authorizations for aid to Israel.
Sources suggest that the White House is considering including the reauthorization of aid to Ukraine in a broader aid package for Israel, which could garner more support from both sides of the aisle. This approach is particularly appealing as it also discredits the far-right, including members of Congress who vehemently oppose providing ongoing aid to Ukraine but strongly advocate for increased military support for Israel.
Taiwan would not receive aid from this bill. However, there is strong bipartisan support on Capitol Hill for anything that could help the United States in a confrontation with Beijing. In fact, in August, the White House requested Congress to approve an arms program for Taiwan as part of a supplemental budget request for Ukraine. The potential threat to Taiwan's security is considered equally urgent.
On Tuesday, US ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, emphasized that America's support for Israel would not affect its commitment to continue supporting Ukraine. Nevertheless, Russia and China are closely observing how these resource-related matters unfold.
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However, there may come a time when a moment of reckoning becomes necessary. Eventually, this could lead to the nations that the US has been assisting being forced to make difficult decisions that may seem unfathomable to them and even to us. However, these decisions may ultimately prove unavoidable.
Will Ukraine eventually be faced with the possibility of losing Crimea? Will Israel need to make some concessions to show Palestinians that there is an alternative to constant conflict? The belief that the US will always come to the rescue and provide military support to uphold a struggling democracy may be comforting, but it may also collide with harsh realities in the future.
Instead of persisting as a military powerhouse for the democratic world, America might have to transform into a more skilled and effective collaborator, assisting every nation we ally with in discovering their own way towards enduring and sustainable peace.
